My top prospect list

[krazzy]

I like our system but after the first 10-12 You
can just about put their names in a bucket and
pull them out to set their order

My top 30

1. Chase Burns
2. Sal Stewart
3. Rhet Lowder
4. Edwin Arroyo
5. Chase Petty
6. Alfrado Duno
7. Ricardo Cabrera
8. Cam Collier
9. Hector Rodriguez
10. Sammy Stafura
11. Tyson Lewis
12. Adam Serwinowski
13. Julian Aguiar
14. Ty Floyd
15. Carlos Jorge
16. Zach Maxwell
17. Luke Holman
18. Sheng-En Lin
19. Blake Dunn
20. Connor Phillips
21. Leonardo Balcazar
22. Yerlin Confidan
23. Jirvin Morillo
24. Yeycol Soriano
25. Adolfo Sanchez
26. Bernard Moon
27. Javi Rivera
28. Nestor Lorant
29. Jose Acuna
30. Ethan O’Donnell
31. Jack Moss
32. Hunter Hollan

[Kc61]

Here are some thoughts on top ten prospect list with a few additions. Each category is alphabetical.

Top tier (A grade) - Burns and Lowder

Almost top tier (A- grade) - Arroyo, Collier, Petty, Stewart.

Potentially top tier but not much track record. (B+ grade) - Cabrera, Duno, Lewis, Stafura.

Just missed top ten (B) - Aguiar, Jorge.

Might have made top ten but for injured season (B-) - Floyd.

[mth123]

I'd go

1. Burns
2. Lowder
3. Duno
4. Stewart
5. Arroyo
6. Collier
7. Aguiar
8. Stafura
9. Lewis (based purely on the bonus the Reds gave him)
10. Petty (If he keeps doing well like he has in the last month or so, I might move him farther up).

After those guys, its a lot of guys that are hard to differentiate. I think the Reds go 40 to 50 deep in guys who might make a top 25 list in another organization, but a lot of those guys aren't high end guys.

Of the top 10, I'd only expect Lowder, Arroyo, Aguiar and possibly Petty to have any impact on the 2025 Reds at all. They should trade a few of the secondary guys to help the big-league team IMO.

[HokieRed]

I consider Cam Collier to be seriously underrated both by the so-called rating experts and RZ. He now has a 1.096 over the last 21 games as a 19 year old at A+. 95 PA's in that period, with 18K's and 24 W. He has been consistently bringing his K rate down and his walk rate is elite for a player with his power. He is, IMO, easily the best position player prospect in the organization and arguably as good a prospect as Lowder or Burns at this point.

[Rojo Rijo]

Collier has an 11 to 2 BB/K ratio over his last 5 games, which is good to see. He's played 102 games this season. Over the first 88 games he had 4 games where he walked multiple times. Over the last 14 games he's done it 8 times. He's also only homered twice in his last 153 plate appearances. I believe significant changes and adjustments are being made to his approach. This is very encouraging as we know the power will remain. If he can keep this up AA should not be far away.

Despite this I will continue to find it ridiculous to compare him to Rafael Devers. It's still way too early to comp a 19 year old with a history of enormous K ratios to one of the games best hitters who was consistently a sub 20% K ratio player at the same stage of his career. Hopefully in time this comp will be in play, that would be freakin awesome.

[HokieRed]

I watched Devers in A+ ball when he was 19. I never suggested a direct comparison between the two. I just said "think Rafael Devers." They are very similar in body types, strong in lower body. At 19 both were/are just beginning to discover their power (Devers hit 11 homers that year, with a home park that is pretty difficult to hit it out of. Collier obviously has higher K rates but also significantly higher walk rates (and it's not just a matter of the last few games, though he's been very exceptional there). If you look at their OBP and OPS numbers for that 19 year old season, they are virtually identical. So you can find "ridiculous" what you want to, I'll continue in the warranted hopefulness that Devers represents a kind of possible ceiling for Collier. In some ways, the most important thing, by the way, is that both have had very good years as 19 year olds at high A. I don't think either the ratings experts or most RZers generally appreciate how important age is in evaluating minor league players. With all the games being played in reclassification of would be college baseball players, Collier is not much older right now than some graduating high school players.

[Kc61]

I watched Devers in A+ ball when he was 19. I never suggested a direct comparison between the two. I just said "think Rafael Devers." They are very similar in body types, strong in lower body. At 19 both were/are just beginning to discover their power (Devers hit 11 homers that year, with a home park that is pretty difficult to hit it out of. Collier obviously has higher K rates but also significantly higher walk rates (and it's not just a matter of the last few games, though he's been very exceptional there). If you look at their OBP and OPS numbers for that 19 year old season, they are virtually identical. So you can find "ridiculous" what you want to, I'll continue in the warranted hopefulness that Devers represents a kind of possible ceiling for Collier. In some ways, the most important thing, by the way, is that both have had very good years as 19 year olds at high A. I don't think either the ratings experts or most RZers generally appreciate how important age is in evaluating minor league players. With all the games being played in reclassification of would be college baseball players, Collier is not much older right now than some graduating high school players.

Cam Collier Dayton A+ age 19 — .355/.425/780, 15 homers/102 games
Edwin Encarnacion Dayton A age 19 - .338/.458/.796, 17 homers/ 136 games

Just noodling around but I see some similarities early in CC’s career.

[Dave C]

Last year Leo Balcazar blew his knee and struggled early this year. He seems to be rising quick as the season winds down. .209 in June, .257 in July and 313 in August. He looked really good before the injury.

What happend to Sal Stewart? He supposedly had a hand laceration back on July 16th. Seems like a long time for that.

[Benihana]

Cam Collier Dayton A+ age 19 — .355/.425/780, 15 homers/102 games
Edwin Encarnacion Dayton A age 19 - .338/.458/.796, 17 homers/ 136 games

Just noodling around but I see some similarities early in CC’s career.

That’s an interesting comp I hadn’t considered before. I like it!

[Dave C]

A couple of prospects who lost a season to injury are coming on over the last couple of months.

Yearlin Confidan has been really good over his last 40+ games: .294/.407/.512 with 32 BB, 43 K's, 10 steals. 43 EBH's as well.

Leo Balcazar is hitting .344/.364/.529 over his last 25 games.

Jay Allen III has been a man of streaks. Current one is .340/.471/.455 in his last 18 games. 11 to 8 walks over K's and 8SB's

These are "oh by the way" prospects based on their performances around a series if injuries for each of them. If they can get some health maybe they can surprise.

[Patrick Bateman]

Collier has a similar body shape and skillset to Devers. It’s easy to see the comparison as a ceiling. Like all 19 year olds, there’s a large range of outcomes and it’s likely he will fall short.

Being in a pitchers league with offensive suppression, I think Collier is underrated. He’s a good league adjusted season trending the right way. His power is also just beginning to blossom, which quite frankly, as he fills out, is not going to be an issue.


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[camisadelgolf]

When it comes to Yerlin Confidan, how can you not be reminded of Aristides Aquino?

[Dave C]

When it comes to Yerlin Confidan, how can you not be reminded of Aristides Aquino?

For starters.... 34 BB in his last 40 games.

[camisadelgolf]

For starters.... 34 BB in his last 40 games.

I didn't realize he had been doing that well. It's 41 walks over his past 42 games. And that's right after he had gone 15 straight games without a single walk. That's about as drastic of a turn-around as it gets.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Several prospects are making late-season runs at higher ratings as the off-season sneaks up on us all.

Lowder and Collier are white hot. Aguiar's shown out at three levels this season. Petty's been really good since the All-Star break. Yerlin Confidan, Esmith Pineda, Jay Allen, Leo Balcazar, Jose Acuna-- August's been a good month for Red prospects, by and large.