My top prospect list

[Kc61]

This season was bound to be a struggle, if only because there was so little talent in the upper minors. (All of it had graduated already.)

Next year, there will be several interesting prospects in AA and several dotting the rest of the rosters on down. (AAA will still likely be a veritable wasteland until mid-season.)

Agree with this. The youth rebuild part of Reds development is going well. What they are hopefully learning is that it’s not enough. Has to be supplemented meaningfully with veterans. The youth part has had bumps in the road - to be expected - but so many of Reds good players have come through the system which is an achievement.

[mth123]

I'd say there are 6 candidates to be top 100 prospects and all should be in AA or AAA (or the big leagues and any or all could make their debut before 2025 ends). I'd rank them as follows:

1. Lowder - he's already a big leaguer and is having success
2. Burns - Should be in AA after a few starts in A+
3. Collier - He's stepped-up big time and is a legit middle of the order prospect (I was tempted to put him ahead of Burns)
4. Arroyo - A SS with a bat and a glove.
5. Stewart - Looks like a legit bat for an IF corner and has been playing second this year before his injury
6. Petty - Another young, high ceiling arm that took a big step forward in the second half

I'd say the top 3 are untouchable and the Reds may need to deal 2 of those bottom three to get what they need for the big leagues in 2025, If teams would take Marte or CES instead, I'd deal one of them and keep Stewart if possible. Petty/Arroyo plus some guys lower on the list (Jorge? Rodriguez? Moore?) would be what I'd go shopping with if money doesn't get it done.

[RustyJ]

Can someone explain the Petty arc to me? He successfully reinvented himself last year as a low 90s pitchability guy in Dayton. Then he comes into camp this spring throwing high 90s and has everyone drooling about a breakout. The he goes out and backpedals with a pretty forgettable season, albeit one level up.

Did the velocity disappear when the workload ramped up in season? Did he lose too much of what made him special last year in pursuit of the velocity? Who is this enigma of Chase Petty?

[JCM11]

Can someone explain the Petty arc to me? He successfully reinvented himself last year as a low 90s pitchability guy in Dayton. Then he comes into camp this spring throwing high 90s and has everyone drooling about a breakout. The he goes out and backpedals with a pretty forgettable season, albeit one level up.

Did the velocity disappear when the workload ramped up in season? Did he lose too much of what made him special last year in pursuit of the velocity? Who is this enigma of Chase Petty?

He's a 21 year old pitcher who hasn't thrown a ton of innings until this year. He's gaining experience and figuring things out on the fly. I would say Petty has responded nicely to the challenges this year and looks like a pretty good bet to be a solid MLB rotation piece at this point.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Can someone explain the Petty arc to me? He successfully reinvented himself last year as a low 90s pitchability guy in Dayton. Then he comes into camp this spring throwing high 90s and has everyone drooling about a breakout. The he goes out and backpedals with a pretty forgettable season, albeit one level up.

Did the velocity disappear when the workload ramped up in season? Did he lose too much of what made him special last year in pursuit of the velocity? Who is this enigma of Chase Petty?

I suspect it took him some time to work that new-found velocity into an actual pitching program. His April numbers were putrid-- four starts and 16 innings of 9.56 ERA baseball. After that, however, he managed quite well, with an ERA well into the threes across the last four months of the season. Too, he moved from AA to AAA at the end of the year.

That's not forgettable.

[texasdave]

Connor Phillips is a prospect, of sorts, who regained a little bit of his luster with last night's perfromance. 6 innings, 7 hits, 2 runs, 0 walks, 9 strike outs. He is scheduled to pitched Louisville's final game of the season on Sunday.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Connor Phillips is a prospect, of sorts, who regained a little bit of his luster with last night's perfromance. 6 innings, 7 hits, 2 runs, 0 walks, 9 strike outs. He is scheduled to pitched Louisville's final game of the season on Sunday.

Since he's come back from Arizona, Phillips has put up the following line:

- 21.2 IP
- 5 GS
- 20 H
- 24 K
- 10 BB
- 1.385 WHiP
- 2.49 ERA

Not sure where he might go in my end-of-season list, but he's put himself back in conversation, at least.

[RustyJ]

He's a 21 year old pitcher who hasn't thrown a ton of innings until this year. He's gaining experience and figuring things out on the fly. I would say Petty has responded nicely to the challenges this year and looks like a pretty good bet to be a solid MLB rotation piece at this point.

I’m not trying to drag the guy; just saying if was still a plus command/off speed guy and actually kicked up his fastball to 97+, we wouldn’t be digging around for silver linings.

Just not clear on what he’s been bringing to the mound scouting wise this year.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I’m not trying to drag the guy; just saying if was still a plus command/off speed guy and actually kicked up his fastball to 97+, we wouldn’t be digging around for silver linings.

Just not clear on what he’s been bringing to the mound scouting wise this year.

Bad April. Good rest of season. Very good second half. Super young.

Not much digging required, that.

[texasdave]

If you are looking for an under-the-radar prospect, you could do worse than going with David Lorduy. Baseball-reference lists the right-handed starter at a solid 6'0" and 198 lbs. The 20-year-old out of Sincelejo, Colombia flipped a switch halfway through the '23 season, and has been dominating ever since. His combined number since that point (DSL, ACL and Daytona) are: 25 G, 87.1 IP, 53 H, 18 BB, 93 K, 3 HR. He added 3 shutout innings in the playoffs this year. He made the ACL All-Star roster.

Our friend at redsminorleagues.com had this capsule synopsis:

David Lorduy Scouting Report
A reliever with good fastball velocity and a slider. The fastball could get into the mid-to-upper 90’s in the future, giving him a chance for two plus pitches down the line.

Mark that young man down as one to watch.

[HokieRed]

Since he's come back from Arizona, Phillips has put up the following line:

- 21.2 IP
- 5 GS
- 20 H
- 24 K
- 10 BB
- 1.385 WHiP
- 2.49 ERA

Not sure where he might go in my end-of-season list, but he's put himself back in conversation, at least.

I've liked Connor Phillips ever since his acquisition and am really pleased--primarily for him--to see this comeback, which, in some ways, seems nothing short of amazing. Has tremendously explosive stuff, and I'm really looking forward to see what the Reds have done to help him get better control over it (because his control problems were in part due to his movement [see Edison Volquez]). Could be a real sleeper and difference maker. Can't be any lower than number 6 on my Reds prospect list.

[Bourgeois Zee]

So Lowder's still techincally a rookie, right?

[texasdave]

So Lowder's still techincally a rookie, right?

Correct.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Post-season top 20 list, after a month and a half of real progress for many prospects:

1. Rhett Lowder, SP MLB
Monster debut for the Reds as a dominant starter. Looks like he might well be able to go long in games as a peak Bronson Arroyo type. Provides massive upside and a solid floor as well. He's penciled in as their #4 starter now, but I suspect he'll be better than that as next season progresses. A favorite for NL ROY next year, he's among the game's best pitching prospects and should be a top 10 prospect.

2. Chase Burns, SP 2024 Draft
The Reds have been able to churn out several starters with decent stuff in recent seasons. Burns has elite stuff similar to Hunter Greene, but is far more advanced in terms of breaking balls. He'll need a couple months but could well be on the Rhett Lowder track-- ready to be a difference-maker by mid-August. Will be a top 50 prospect even with no time spent in the minors after being drafted. High floor and massive ceiling. Likely a top 100 prospect-- might sneak into the top 50.

3. Edwin Arroyo, SS AA
Still super young, despite losing a full season. Arroyo will play SS at the major league level. Suprising power and aggressive speed give him 30/50 ceiling and likely at least 15/30 combo as a defense-first middle infielder. His high floor gives him a bump over Collier, IMO. Will likely play in AA this year with, for the first time, a super talented group around him. I want to see how he responds to that, for sure. He could well move down a spot, should he struggle in the AFL in November. He has to show that his BA will be sufficient enough that he sticks. That's really the only worry.

4. Cam Collier, 3B/1B High A
At the halfway point of the season, I was ready to drop him out of my top 10 entirely. He then got nova hot and showed why the Reds tabbed him among the best prospects in his draft. (That continues to be an exceptional bit of draft chicanery.) He's still super young and the 2024 Red MiPoY has tools enough to get him on the top 100 lists-- likely inside the top 50. At his best, Collier walks as much as he K's and can be that middle of the order bat the Reds desperately need. Not sure if he's a legitimate 3B or not. He'll need to stay on top of his physical conditioning. I'd like to see him drop a few pounds-- or hulk out and play 1B. He needs to hit the ball in the air far more than he does currently-- though he's improved on that front this season.

5. Sal Stewart, 2B/3B High A
Had Stewart stayed healthy, he'd likely be my #2 or #3 prospect. Alas, a freak injury cost him months of the season. Stewart might be an offensive-minded 2B in the Jonathan India mold, but he's most likely a plus defender at the hot corner. (He has a very, very good arm that's largely wasted at 2B.) He's a fairly large man who plays like a smaller one. Lots of BBs and very few Ks gives me real hope that there's more locked inside there too-- especially if he can get to more power moving forward. To me, he's an Aaron Boone type at 3B, though Stewart has a better hit tool and more patience. Maybe DJ LaMahieu? Stewart should make some top 100 lists, but his injury will likely mean they'll ignore him. They shouldn't. Dude's for real.

6. Chase Petty, SP AAA
Another second half All-Star, Petty struggled mightily in April, but quietly righted his ship for the rest of the season. He ended up with an ERA below 3.50 for May through September and a late season promotion to Louisville showed that he was ready for AAA at the tender age of 21. Production is not, however, why he's on this list. His stuff is exceptional-- upper 90s heat he carries late in games, very good breaking stuff, and (though he struggled a bit last year) a propensity to throw strikes when he's on top of his game. He's trying to find balance between location and stuff now; the intriguing part of that is that he's proven successful at both approaches. That's some true next-level pitching going on. He's not just a thrower-- that's why I really like him to be a Tyler Mahle type MOR guy.

7. Sammy Stafura, SS High A
Stafura was as bad as could be after being drafted last year, but certainly righted the ship this year. He breezed through Arizona and put up good enough numbers in Daytona (121 wRC+) to ensure that he'll be a Dragon next year. Stafura is a likely SS and certain middle of the diamond guy who looks like he'll end up with decent power-- he's a 15+ HR guy in the GABP, given starts. Where he'll make his money, though, is in his approach and speed. Guy's going to be a table-setter capable of 50 SB at his peak. Reminds me a bit of Matt McLain, though I don't think he'll get to as much power. Could well be in the discussion for top 100 lists due to age, position, approach, and production.

8. Alfredo Duno, C Low A
Another who missed real time in the season, I'm hoping Duno makes up for it in the AFL. (And think he might.) His power is precocious. Old man skills are apparent-- he reminds me of Salvador Perez or Carlos Santana as they are now (not at their peak). And those two comps are why he's not in my top five-- I'm just not sure if he ends up a catcher. He's got enough tools to keep trying him there-- supposedly has a cannon for an arm and is a good framer (again, supposedly) for a super young guy. He could well end up legitimately good behind the plate, but that's such a crapshoot with young guys. The power is good enough that he could well bop 35+ in the GABP even with a low BA. K issues might be bad, but he's super young. He should improve with PAs.

9. Julian Aguiar, SP MLB
This is the beginning of the second tier. (That top eight has legitimately outstanding upside.) Aguiar got through AA relatively unscathed with his mid 90s, slightly above average fastball and three decent off-speed pitches. Nothing he has will blow you away, but he's capable with all four pitches. I like his cutter/ change-up-- and he throws it a lot. According to Statcast, the sinker's gotten absolutely mashed, but the other three pitches grade as really (and suprisingly, considering his overall numbers) excellent. He's a bit HR happy, but that's part and parcel of calling the GABP home. I expect that to drop a bit (if given innings). I really like Aguiar's progression and could see him as a viable BOR SP next year or as exceptional AAA depth in case the rotation needs him. I'd really like him as a multi-inning, one-time-through-the-order guy in the bullpen too, if that's the way they want to go. Not sure if he gets to his ceiling in Cincinnati, but he's an innings eater who might well end up being more than the sum of his parts for somebody as he matures.

10. Connor Phillips, P AAA
To call what he did for the first three months this season a struggle is to embarass all struggles. Phillips had perhaps the worst opening half to a season I've ever seen for a legitimate prospect. Absolutely, horribly poor. He couldn't find the plate with radar, and his stuff was hammered when it did happen over the dish. The Red took him back to Arizona to re-think his delivery for a couple months, and he came back largely as the prospect he was pre-2024. 21.2 innings in 5 late-season starts with a 2.49 ERA, 10 K/9, and 4.5 BB/9. That's too many BBs, of course, but it's a damn sight better than what he'd done earlier. As is, Phillips is likely a late-inning relief arm. But he might end up Luis Castillo. It's this upside that carries him into the top 10.

Others considered:
- Ricardo Cabrera
Based on offense alone, he's a top 10 pick, but he's between positions defensively. That impacts where he might end up. I'd like to see him try CF and give his plus wheels a chance to impact the game. Didn't hit as well as last season, but he's still super young.

- Adam Serwinowski
Only 20, he'll be in most top 10s across the game. I like his peripherals a great deal, but pitchers tend to get hurt. He has a long way to go and will need to pitch well to get there. Really nice velocity and a developing feel for control give me hope that he may well blossom quicker than most.

- Tyson Lewis
Based purely on scouting reports, Lewis is similar to Tyler Callihan, Matt McLain, and Sammy Stafura-- middle infielder with precocious hitting ability and a baseball rat. Like that LH swing. We'll see how it translates to pro ball next season.

- Mike Sirota
High floor, IMO, with what should grade out as above average to plus defense in CF. Like the pop and that he hits the ball square when he hits it. Hopefully, the whiff issues that dogged him early this year don't return. Might be a monster return, as he has top 10 upside.

- Sheng-En Len
Super young (18) for how well he hit this year in Arizona. Will apparently move positions offensively and pitch (where most scouts liked him better) in Instructs. I'd love to see how he does out there. Alas, that's not happening. With just the numbers in front of us, he's a good prospect, but he might be hiding even more.

- Hector Rodriguez
A very good hit tool, Rodriguez would rank far higher were he to use his legs more often. He also needs to walk more. Still, he's showing suprising power and is still just 20. There's hope that he figures it out. He's got upside beyond fifth OF, but even if that's all he is, that's a win.

- Yerlin Confidan
On the struggle bus for two years after being tabbed ACL MVP in 2022, Confidan was put in the lead-off position in the batting order and blossomed. Was among the very best hitters in the FSL for the last four months of the season. OPSed 850 in his last 250 PAs. Shocked me that he played some CF in 2024-- didn't see that coming at all. At 21, he's age-appropriate but might get aggressively promoted if he shows aptitude in Dayton next season. Nice comeback season.

- Jose Acuna
Speaking of comebacks, Acuna was on the shelf for most of the season and didn't come back until late. He was his usual dominant self upon return, putting up phenomenal numbers in limited innings in Chattanooga before struggling mightily in Louisville in a 12-inning debut. I expect he'll be a AAA mainstay next season behind Aguiar, Petty, and (perhaps) Phillips. If so, that's a heck of a pitching staff-- one that would have been starting in Cincinnati in years past.

- Carlos Jorge
Jorge had a completely forgettable season. He struggled early-- badly-- then just when he seemed to not completely suck, got hurt. Why's he here, then? Because as bad as he was, he was still league average. Jorge plays CF, steals bases at an exceptional rate, and has a little pop-- he should have a high floor. Dude hit .295 in 2023, so it's not like he's incapable. I'm going to give him another year before dropping him out of the rankings entirely. Jorge just turned 22 too-- he's a relative baby.

- Bernard Moon
Speaking of babies, Moon's 19 and just enjoyed an 800+ OPS. That's great. He's also a 2B and seems like he might stick there. (8 errors isn't horrible, and his range seems really good, according to range factor per game.) That said, Moon's primary attribute is his hit tool. That .304 ranked in the top 15 of ACL teams (150 PAs min.). More, his .424 OBP ranked 9th (again, 150 PAs or more). He doesn't seem to have the wheels of Henley (who is typically ranked ahead of him on prospect lists) nor does he play CF, but that bat should play quite well moving forward.

[SirFelixCat]

That was a great write up. Thank you for that BZ!