Rhett Lowder starting Friday...

[RiverfrontRed]

Bump.

3rd start, 5.0 IP, 5 H, 0 BBs, 0 R.

15.1 IP, 0.59 ERA to start his career.

That’s good, right?

It's great. But I'm sure some of the experts on here are sticking with their narrative that it was a bad decision to bring him up.

[dragonoffrost]

The key next year will be seeing him pitch through more than 2 times through the batting order

[CySeymour]

The key next year will be seeing him pitch through more than 2 times through the batting order

I imagine through the offseason and into spring training there will be an emphasis on his 3rd and 4th pitches so he can extend his outings.

[mgbrown66]

I like this kid. I don't like the hair/stache combo though. One of them needs to go.

He seems to have a lot of movement on his pitches. The new first rounder from WF seems the same way. Movement on fastballs seems unfair.

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My 5 year old asked me if "Brett Flounder" was pitching last night. That's going to stick at the house.

[dragonoffrost]

I imagine through the offseason and into spring training there will be an emphasis on his 3rd and 4th pitches so he can extend his outings.

He's already throwing a full 4 pitch mix....

[CySeymour]

He's already throwing a full 4 pitch mix....

Yeah I knew he was, but just saying he probably wants to have them even stronger.


As a curiosity, is it actually a sinker he throws or more of a 2 seam fastball?

[Chip R]

He needs a hot influencer GF like Skenes.

[KeefeCato]

I still want 1 proven Vet that can reliably (as far as pitchers are actually reliable these days) take the ball and give the Reds 6-7 above average innings. Doesn't have to be an ACE (though who would complain) just someone that you feel confident every 5th day. If everyone leaves ST healthy, wouldn't be opposed to a 6 man rotation with the 6th starter sliding into the Pen when there are off days in those 6 days.

Problem is it's a lot of luck finding those guys. Even pitchers who have been mostly healthy eventually break down. With injuries. Lot of luck in finding a guy who can make 32 starts and be league average pitcher.
Maybe that guy is Montas. Provided he stays healthy. Most pitchers do well in their 2nd full season coming off of TJ surgery.
I doubt most fans would be happy if they bring back Montas as the veteran starter. I'm not sure I would be. He does seem to be improving as this season goes on though.

[dragonoffrost]

Yeah I knew he was, but just saying he probably wants to have them even stronger.


As a curiosity, is it actually a sinker he throws or more of a 2 seam fastball?

He calls it a sinker from the reports I've seen.

[mgbrown66]

i think Skenes throws that two seam fastball that almost looks like a screwball, it breaks right into right handed hitters. I remember seeing that and thinking 'that might be the most filthy pitch i've ever seen.' Gave me Kershaw curveball vibes.

[Reds Freak]

A first half staff of
Greene
Lodolo
Abbott
Lowder
Buehler someone mentioned him. Might be a nice target if price is reasonable.

New late inning reliever
Diaz
Moll
Suter
Pagan
Cruz I still think he is solid in a low leverage role.
Ashcraft I give him a bullpen look.
Williamson

Isn't a bad staff. Need to sign a couple vets to minor league contracts plant then in AAA for depth.
Spiers AAA Aguilar AAA
Burns waiting to take over in the 2nd half if needed.

That's not terrible depth wise. Could withstand a couple injuries at one time to the rotation.


They must grab a big bat. Or at least 2 very solid bats Have better luck with health.

Hopefully Chase Petty will be knocking on the door too in AAA. Looks like he'll get one start in Louisville this year. He's still super young so he could probably use a full year in AAA but he should be another depth option.

If they have half the rotation options on innings limits again going into 2025, why not have a couple guys start their season in May so they can last through the end of the year?

[RedsManRick]

Problem is it's a lot of luck finding those guys. Even pitchers who have been mostly healthy eventually break down. With injuries. Lot of luck in finding a guy who can make 32 starts and be league average pitcher.
Maybe that guy is Montas. Provided he stays healthy. Most pitchers do well in their 2nd full season coming off of TJ surgery.
I doubt most fans would be happy if they bring back Montas as the veteran starter. I'm not sure I would be. He does seem to be improving as this season goes on though.

Here's the full list of pitchers with 100 IP (all starts) who are averaging 6+ IP per GS:

Name IP/GS
Seth Lugo 6.4 (2024 FA, but had never done this before)
Logan Gilbert 6.4 (arb)
Logan Webb 6.3 (arb)
Framber Valdez 6.3 (arb)
Tarik Skubal 6.2 (arb)
Zack Wheeler 6.2 (signed in FA in 2019, extended through 2027 @ $42M/yr moving forward)
Chris Sale 6.2 (acquired via trade & signed through 2026 @ $20M/yr -- but hadn't been healthy & effective since 2019)
Aaron Nola 6.1 (extended through 2030 @ $24.5/yr)
Tyler Glasnow 6.1 (acquired via trade & signed through 2030 @ $30/yr)
José Berríos 6.1 (acquired via trade in 2021, extended through 2028 @ ~$20M/yr)
Tanner Houck 6.1 (arb)
Corbin Burnes 6.0 (acquired via trade in 2024, 2025 FA)
Paul Skenes 6.0 (pre-arb)
Tyler Anderson 6.0 (signed in FA in 2023 @ $13M/yr through 2025)
Hunter Greene 6.0 (arb years bought out through 2028 @ $8.8M/yr)
Sonny Gray 6.0 (signed in FA in 2024 @ ~$25M/yr through 2027)

All of them have an ERA under 4.00, including 7 under 3.00. There is basically no such thing as a "league average" guy who throws 6 IP+ a start. Most of these guys are #1s and are either in arbitration or would be the highest paid Red.

I had advocated for the Reds signing Lugo, but nobody could realistically have predicted he'd be an ace. The Reds did try to sign Sonny Gray. They wound up with Montas.

The closest you get to the idea behind the post is probably Tyler Anderson. But I'd bet there are 10 other similar pitchers who signed comparable deals and aren't delivering that performance and maybe 2 or 3 that have.

If you're the Reds, you only have the budget for 1 FA at this level; you better not miss. We tried and got Montas; a miss. Two guys commonly targeted by posters (present company included) this past offseason were Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez. Yikes. Michael Wacha & Jack Flaherty, who just missed the list and have pitched very well, could have been had. But the point is, it's a crapshoot.

[Kingspoint]

It's great. But I'm sure some of the experts on here are sticking with their narrative that it was a bad decision to bring him up.

It was a bad decision only if he was going to get rocked. Since he didn't and the opposite occurred, it was a good decision to bring him up.

[Kingspoint]

Here's the full list of pitchers with 100 IP (all starts) who are averaging 6+ IP per GS:

Name IP/GS
Seth Lugo 6.4 (2024 FA, but had never done this before)
Logan Gilbert 6.4 (arb)
Logan Webb 6.3 (arb)
Framber Valdez 6.3 (arb)
Tarik Skubal 6.2 (arb)
Zack Wheeler 6.2 (signed in FA in 2019, extended through 2027 @ $42M/yr moving forward)
Chris Sale 6.2 (acquired via trade & signed through 2026 @ $20M/yr -- but hadn't been healthy & effective since 2019)
Aaron Nola 6.1 (extended through 2030 @ $24.5/yr)
Tyler Glasnow 6.1 (acquired via trade & signed through 2030 @ $30/yr)
José Berríos 6.1 (acquired via trade in 2021, extended through 2028 @ ~$20M/yr)
Tanner Houck 6.1 (arb)
Corbin Burnes 6.0 (acquired via trade in 2024, 2025 FA)
Paul Skenes 6.0 (pre-arb)
Tyler Anderson 6.0 (signed in FA in 2023 @ $13M/yr through 2025)
Hunter Greene 6.0 (arb years bought out through 2028 @ $8.8M/yr)
Sonny Gray 6.0 (signed in FA in 2024 @ ~$25M/yr through 2027)

All of them have an ERA under 4.00, including 7 under 3.00. There is basically no such thing as a "league average" guy who throws 6 IP+ a start. Most of these guys are #1s and are either in arbitration or would be the highest paid Red.

I had advocated for the Reds signing Lugo, but nobody could realistically have predicted he'd be an ace. The Reds did try to sign Sonny Gray. They wound up with Montas.

The closest you get to the idea behind the post is probably Tyler Anderson. But I'd bet there are 10 other similar pitchers who signed comparable deals and aren't delivering that performance and maybe 2 or 3 that have.

If you're the Reds, you only have the budget for 1 FA at this level; you better not miss. We tried and got Montas; a miss. Two guys commonly targeted by posters (present company included) this past offseason were Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez. Yikes. Michael Wacha & Jack Flaherty, who just missed the list and have pitched very well, could have been had. But the point is, it's a crapshoot.

Luis Castillo's closer to 6.0 IP per start than 5.6666666667 Innings per start, so he qualifies, too.

[RedsManRick]

Luis Castillo's closer to 6.0 IP per start than 5.6666666667 Innings per start, so he qualifies, too.

Below 6 is below 6. But yeah, there are 30 more guys with more than 5.67 IP/GS including 17 who would round up with that logic. That's sort of the point. The "capable, mid-rotation innings eater" type isn't 6 innings any more. It's 5. Guys who aren't elite don't regularly get that 6th inning.