Rhett Lowder starting Friday...

[Chip R]

I'm kind of at the point of wanting to put Lodolo in the pen. With his stuff he could be dominate there, and at this point it's highly unlikely he's going to ever be a 150+ inning starter anyway. I also want them to go find a true TOR guy to pair with Hunter.

I get that but Lodolo seems like the kind of guy who always has nagging injuries. So it's a good bet he's going to be out of action for significant amounts of time whether he's starting or relieving.

[Kingspoint]

The newly acquired T. J. Sikkema should also be in the Louisville rotation all of next season and will be a candidate to be called up.

He missed 2 years during COVID (2nd year to shoulder injury after missing all of the 2020 season to COVID season being canceled). Was a University of Missouri Pitcher so he had a late start to his pro career as it is. He also missed most of the 2023 season.

He's been fantastic this season at Dayton, and in his 3 Starts at Chattanooga. He may begin the season at Chattanooga next year, but the first time there's an opening in Louisville, he's likely to get that spot, as early as April next season. At Age-26 next year, he'll be mentally ahead of others, but innings-wise and pitching experience-wise, he'll be behind most of them at that level.

He was a good pickup by Krall.

With only 72 innings so far this season, I could see him getting more time in Arizona just to continue the work they have him on.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T._J._Sikkema

https://www.baseball-reference.com/r...d=sikkem000tj-

https://www.mlb.com/video/reds-south...ghth-strikeout

Sikkema also looks like a candidate for a long-relief role.

Like Spiers, Sikkema is another COVID-era Minor Leaguer that is going to have a unique timeline and career path. Right now, he's figuring it out, but a lot of that may be due to him being several years above age level. So, we'll see next season when he faces AAA hitters and gets his first taste of Major League hitters, something I expect he will get an opportunity to do considering how many pitchers get used by the REDS every season lately.

[MoneyInTheBank]

I like this plan, but I'd put Lowder in the rotation, make Williamson the Swingman and Ashcraft would be in AAA if he's not on the IL. Ashcraft was bad enough this year to go to the back of the line. Kind of the pitching version of Benson IMO.

I'd like to see a staff structured like this.

5 Starters: Greene, Abbott, Acquisition (assuming Martinez walks), Lodolo, Lowder These guys cover 5 or 6.
3 swingmen: Williamson, Suter, Gibaut if healthy, somebody from the AAA line below if not. These guys go 2 or 3 innings twice per week. Say 5 Innings per week.
5 high leverage guys: Santillan, Pagan, Moll, Acquisition, Diaz. These guys generally pitch the 8th and 9th.

AAA rotation/swingman depth - Petty, Aguiar, Acuna, Phillips, Richardson, Ashcraft, Spiers
AAA Late inning depth - Maxwell, Moore, Zulueta, Cruz, Antone??

I don't mind Ashcraft in AAA if it's to transition him to the 'pen or to work on things. I'm just not crazy about the "he needs to earn it back" AAA stint. I think the MLB bullpen would be the place to do that

[Kingspoint]

I don't mind Ashcraft in AAA if it's to transition him to the 'pen or to work on things. I'm just not crazy about the "he needs to earn it back" AAA stint. I think the MLB bullpen would be the place to do that

I imagine mth123 is assuming the need for a dozen "capable" Starting Pitchers over the course of the season. Just as every one of our 5 Starters had to be replaced at one point or another, it's likely that this occurs again next season and opportunites for not only all five AAA Starters will get a chance to Start or pitch long-inning middle relief for the REDS, but even some who don't begin as Starters in Louisville next season. It's likely that at least four Starters among those expected to start in Louisville and Cincinnati aren't even ready come Opening Day for both clubs, and there's four openings right there to begin the season.

Ashcraft just happens to fall into the 2nd Tier of Starters, and that places him in Louisville to begin the year. Whoever gets promoted from Louisville should be decided on "whoever earns it", not innings pitched in the bigs to-date. I'm certain Ashcraft understands where he is right now and that he needs to work on things in Louisville. He's comparing himself to one of the top-five staffs in all of baseball and he's just not good enough for that. Comparing him to the fodder of position players that got chances they didn't deserve this last season might get into his head or someone else's, but he's not a position player and doesn't get the rope that a Marte or Benson received. He may never "earn his way back with the REDS", and that would mean that either those above him are too good or he's failing to push his way back to an opportunity. He has a track record of some success, but others have a better track record without as much of a track record of bad results.

[mth123]

I don't mind Ashcraft in AAA if it's to transition him to the 'pen or to work on things. I'm just not crazy about the "he needs to earn it back" AAA stint. I think the MLB bullpen would be the place to do that

Ashcraft hasn't been good. He's had over 300 big league innings now with a 4.91 ERA and a 4.73 FIP. His K/BB ratio is a weak 2.19. He allows too many baserunners and he allows HR. He'll be 27 and is coming off of a major arm injury. He's not one of the best 13 pitchers on the roster even now and I think they need a clear upgrade in both the rotation and the pen (assuming Martinez walks). If you want to give him a crack at being a late inning reliever, AAA is the place. I don't want him losing games for the big-league team while he's figuring it out.

[MoneyInTheBank]

Ashcraft hasn't been good. He's had over 300 big league innings now with a 4.91 ERA and a 4.73 FIP. His K/BB ratio is a weak 2.19. He allows too many baserunners and he allows HR. He'll be 27 and is coming off of a major arm injury. He's not one of the best 13 pitchers on the roster even now and I think they need a clear upgrade in both the rotation and the pen (assuming Martinez walks). If you want to give him a crack at being a late inning reliever, AAA is the place. I don't want him losing games for the big-league team while he's figuring it out.

never claimed otherwise, which is why I'd move him to the bullpen. He has a career 2.85 ERA in the first inning, so I see promise as a reliever. failed starter =/ bad pitcher

[mth123]

never claimed otherwise, which is why I'd move him to the bullpen. He has a career 2.85 ERA in the first inning, so I see promise as a reliever. failed starter =/ bad pitcher

That's fine. Not in the big leagues.

[KeefeCato]

I put Ashcraft in the bullpen in spring training. But he has to earn a spot in the Reds bullpen.
I'm bullish on Lodolo. I keep him in the rotation but 25 is the last year he stays in it if he isn't healthy again. In 26 I put him in the bullpen.
You can more easily replace a reliever that goes on IL than you can a starter.

I let Ashcraft, Suter, Williamson and Junis battle it out for 2 bullpen/swing man spots.
I keep Cruz and when he is throwing the ball well he is a late inning option. But when he goes though a rough patch he needs to be in low leverage situations.

They have no choice but to keep Pagan due to the contract.

So that's Diaz, Cruz, Moll, Pagan, Santillan and two swing guys that's 7 relievers.
I add a legitimate late inning reliever.
That should be a solid pen. If they can get another high K late inning pitcher.

[MoneyInTheBank]

That's fine. Not in the big leagues.

I respectfully disagree

[HokieRed]

Martinez adding to his value with every outing. The 48 for 3 I suggested earlier is starting to look decidedly too low.

[RED VAN HOT]

Martinez doesn't have a spectacular FB but he changes velocity between 78 and 93. He keeps batters off balance. Most off all he stays healthy. Reds should offer him 3/45 with an option. That would take him through age 38, but he doesn't have the kind of high effort delivery that would cut his career short.

[HokieRed]

Martinez doesn't have a spectacular FB but he changes velocity between 78 and 93. He keeps batters off balance. Most off all he stays healthy. Reds should offer him 3/45 with an option. That would take him through age 38, but he doesn't have the kind of high effort delivery that would cut his career short.

I'm guessing it's going to take more like 60 for 3 to resign him. If he does anywhere near what he's done this year, he has the good chance to put a near contender over the top. Somebody will pay 20 for that. Reds should start thinking hard about whether to make a QO.

[CySeymour]

I'm guessing it's going to take more like 60 for 3 to resign him. If he does anywhere near what he's done this year, he has the good chance to put a near contender over the top. Somebody will pay 20 for that. Reds should start thinking hard about whether to make a QO.

I wouldn't hesitate making the QO, and maybe that is the Reds best play. He's already 34 and the Reds would need to be cautious handing multi year deals to pitchers that age. A one year deal for a pitcher, even in his mid 30's, coming off a very solid year is an acceptable risk, especially when you consider Martinez really hasn't had an ton of innings piled on his arm.

[HokieRed]

I wouldn't hesitate making the QO, and maybe that is the Reds best play. He's already 34 and the Reds would need to be cautious handing multi year deals to pitchers that age. A one year deal for a pitcher, even in his mid 30's, coming off a very solid year is an acceptable risk, especially when you consider Martinez really hasn't had an ton of innings piled on his arm.

I wouldn't have said this before the injury to Williamson, but I now think it's well worth considering. It would require an additional 9 million or so for Martinez (21 QO-12 owed under current arrangement). That shouldn't really be a difference maker but can be made up, if necessary, in several ways. I suspect both Pagan and Junis will walk, and it is certainly conceivable that they could be replaced at 9 million less than they would be owed--particularly if the Martinez retention means Ashcraft to the bullpen (or at least to a swingman role). The goal would be a rotation of Greene, Martinez, Lodolo, Abbott, and Lowder or Ashcraft or Aguilar, with the later possibility of Petty, Burns, or even Phillips.