9-2-24 Reds vs Astros 4:10 PM

[Ky Fried Redleg]

Mark Portugal is rested.

Mark was pretty dang good in his prime in the early and mid 90's. Wasn't terrible with the Reds.

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I sure hope so...I like all 3 players.

I would give an enthusiastic thumbs up to keeping all three.

[LeatherPants]

Hell, I crunch numbers for a living. I teach mathematics and statistics. I LOVE numbers. I respect the heck out of analytics. But sometimes they are overrated. They don't always give you the full story and they can, at times, cause people to undervalue a player, like an Espinal. His BABIP will be interpreted by some as a lot of luck. But is it, really?

“There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics”--- MARK TWAIN

His career BAbip is .304. It’s over .400 during this hot streak. So if it’s not luck, what is it?

[Ky Fried Redleg]

His career BAbip is .304. It’s over .400 during this hot streak. So if it’s not luck, what is it?

I'll conjure up the ghost of Samuel Clemons and/or Wee Willie Keeler right after this "Matlock" episode and ask them.

[Ky Fried Redleg]

His career BAbip is .304. It’s over .400 during this hot streak. So if it’s not luck, what is it?

[Kingspoint]

His career BAbip is .304. It’s over .400 during this hot streak. So if it’s not luck, what is it?

Whenever some stat person doesn't understand something or can't explain something he always wants to call it luck. (and why do stats' people always assume that their stats aren't based on flawed theories to begin with, and that the assumptions they are claiming are 100% true instead of treating them as merely one of many possible explanations that they actually are, especially when you think honestly about how flawed the theories are they use for their assumptions?)

It's improved because his situational hitting and plate approach has improved, but I already said this if you read what I wrote instead of focusing on "luck". I also said it more specifically, but I'll copy and paste it here for you:

"He consistently goes with the pitch which leads to fewer ground-outs and more balls hit between the infield and outfield where there is a lot of open space. He also places greater emphasis on contact than on exit velocity if later in the count. He also fouls off a lot of pitches in order to get an opportunity to eventually get a pitch that he can go with, usually opposite field, and put the ball in play. This approach will always lead to a greater BABIP."

It's not unusual to have your best success at the age of 29, which Espinal is. Historically, it was about 60% age-27, 20% age-26 and 20% age 28. Over the last 20 years (ignore the Steroids era of 1984-2004), it's shifted to 60% age-28, 20% age-27 and 20% age-29, mostly thanks to the educational advancements in sports medicines and health and training advancements.

While most Major League Players have shifted to Exit Velocity and are oblivious to situational hitting, Espinal has gone the other way, the traditional way of hitting, and it's paying off for him.

Nothing about any of his plate appearances says "luck" when you observe them. He's very controlled at the plate. It's not Helter-Skelter up there like it is for most of the REDS.

[LeatherPants]

Whenever some stat person doesn't understand something or can't explain something he always wants to call it luck. (and why do stats' people always assume that their stats aren't based on flawed theories to begin with, and that the assumptions they are claiming are 100% true instead of treating them as merely one of many possible explanations that they actually are, especially when you think honestly about how flawed the theories are they use for their assumptions?)

It's improved because his situational hitting and plate approach has improved, but I already said this if you read what I wrote instead of focusing on "luck". I also said it more specifically, but I'll copy and paste it here for you:

"He consistently goes with the pitch which leads to fewer ground-outs and more balls hit between the infield and outfield where there is a lot of open space. He also places greater emphasis on contact than on exit velocity if later in the count. He also fouls off a lot of pitches in order to get an opportunity to eventually get a pitch that he can go with, usually opposite field, and put the ball in play. This approach will always lead to a greater BABIP."

It's not unusual to have your best success at the age of 29, which Espinal is. Historically, it was about 60% age-27, 20% age-26 and 20% age 28. Over the last 20 years (ignore the Steroids era of 1984-2004), it's shifted to 60% age-28, 20% age-27 and 20% age-29, mostly thanks to the educational advancements in sports medicines and health and training advancements.

While most Major League Players have shifted to Exit Velocity and are oblivious to situational hitting, Espinal has gone the other way, the traditional way of hitting, and it's paying off for him.

Nothing about any of his plate appearances says "luck" when you observe them. He's very controlled at the plate. It's not Helter-Skelter up there like it is for most of the REDS.

A .400+ BAbip isn’t sustainable. He’s a perfectly acceptable major league average hitter, and there’s nothing wrong with that.

[Ky Fried Redleg]

Whenever some stat person doesn't understand something or can't explain something he always wants to call it luck. (and why do stats' people always assume that their stats aren't based on flawed theories to begin with, and that the assumptions they are claiming are 100% true instead of treating them as merely one of many possible explanations that they actually are, especially when you think honestly about how flawed the theories are they use for their assumptions?)

It's improved because his situational hitting and plate approach has improved, but I already said this if you read what I wrote instead of focusing on "luck". I also said it more specifically, but I'll copy and paste it here for you:

"He consistently goes with the pitch which leads to fewer ground-outs and more balls hit between the infield and outfield where there is a lot of open space. He also places greater emphasis on contact than on exit velocity if later in the count. He also fouls off a lot of pitches in order to get an opportunity to eventually get a pitch that he can go with, usually opposite field, and put the ball in play. This approach will always lead to a greater BABIP."

It's not unusual to have your best success at the age of 29, which Espinal is. Historically, it was about 60% age-27, 20% age-26 and 20% age 28. Over the last 20 years (ignore the Steroids era of 1984-2004), it's shifted to 60% age-28, 20% age-27 and 20% age-29, mostly thanks to the educational advancements in sports medicines and health and training advancements.

While most Major League Players have shifted to Exit Velocity and are oblivious to situational hitting, Espinal has gone the other way, the traditional way of hitting, and it's paying off for him.

Nothing about any of his plate appearances says "luck" when you observe them. He's very controlled at the plate. It's not Helter-Skelter up there like it is for most of the REDS.

He passes the eye test when you observe his plate approach, especially when compared to six or seven other guys on the team. He has a cerebral approach, a situational hitting temperament, which is a testament to his being a good team player. Analytics sometimes misses on some of these intangibles. Telling you , folks, the Reds better sign this guy to a contract for next season. I think he will be a valuable asset in '25.

[Ky Fried Redleg]

A .400+ BAbip isn’t sustainable. He’s a perfectly acceptable major league average hitter, and there’s nothing wrong with that.

Leather, you're a really good baseball guy. Assuming Espinal earns a 2-2.5 mil pay raise via arb. , would you suggest the Reds retain his services?

[757690]

His career BAbip is .304. It’s over .400 during this hot streak. So if it’s not luck, what is it?

Espinal’s BABIP this entire season is .277, which has resulted in a .714 OPS. That is exactly the league average OPS.

If we are to believe that BABIP evens out over time, that would mean that Espinal would put up an above average OPS this season.

[Ron Madden]

Lance McAlister's Game Recap

Cincinnati Reds 5 Astros 3

The Reds snapped a 2-2 tie in the 5th inning with four consecutive two-out hits off future Hall-of-Famer Justin Verlander. Santiago Espinal’s two-run flare down the right-field line put the Reds ahead for good.

Justin Wilson came on to retire Yordan Alvarez, representing the tying run in the 9th.

The Reds have won seven consecutive games vs Houston and 49 of the last 68. They have also won 19 of the last 24 series.

The 41-year old Verlander walked the first three batters of the game for the first time in his career (per Bally). The Reds scored twice in the 32 pitch 1st inning. He was knocked out in the fateful fifth, allowing a season high five runs, overall.

Ty France: 4 H, 3 vs Verlander, 2B, RBI, R.
Espinal: 2 H, 2 RBI, SB (9)
Tyler Stephenson: 2 H, BB
Amed Rosario: 2 H, RBI
Jake Fraley: H, R, SB
Friedl: Sac fly. 21 RBI last 28 games.

Jonathan India dropped a 1st inning pop-up over apparent miscommunication with Elly.

Aguiar: 2.2 IN, 2 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 2 K, 53 pitches/27 pitches in 3rd.
Was pitching on three days rest after 78 pitches Thursday,
Made his 4th MLB start. Verlander's career start 522.

Moll: 1.1 IN, 0 R
Spiers: 2.1 IN, 1 R
Pagan: 2.1 IN, 0 R
Wilson: 0.1 IN, 0 R

How they scored:
1st Friedl sac fly, 1-0 Reds
1st France RBI 1B, 2-0 Reds
5th Espinal 2-out 2-RBI 1B, 4-2 Reds
5th Rosario 2-out RBI 1B, 5-2 Reds

[LeatherPants]

Leather, you're a really good baseball guy. Assuming Espinal earns a 2-2.5 mil pay raise via arb. , would you suggest the Reds retain his services?

That would put him at $5-6 million, right?

If the Reds weren’t cheap idiots, sure bring him back, but if prevents the team from upgrading elsewhere, probably not.

[mth123]

That would put him at $5-6 million, right?

If the Reds weren’t cheap idiots, sure bring him back, but if prevents the team from upgrading elsewhere, probably not.

That's the thing. France and Espinal probably combine for around $15 Million in Salary in 2025 if the reds go to arbitration with them. I'd probably keep Espinal and start him at 3B next year while Marte goes back to AAA to see if can learn how to play baseball again. France is redundant with Candelario, who will also make $15 Million in 2025. France is also on a three-year decline. He was a 3.2 WAR player in 2021. Dropped to 2.6 in 2022, Dropped to 1.2 in 2023. This year he sits at -0.5. His production is headed down and his cost is headed up. The reason the reds are almost always mediocre is because they pay high prices for guys who were good 3 years ago which prevents them from paying market rates for actual good players. They did it this year with Montas who gave them a 5+ ERA for it.

If the Reds can get France to agree to a reasonable contract for under $3 Million or so to avoid arbitration, he'd be a decent bench bat/insurance policy. No way should they go to arb with him. If he hits the FA market, he's not going to make the $8 to $10 Million he'd make in arb. Guys like Rowdy Tellez ($3.2 Million) and Dan Vogelbach ($2 Million) are the comps for France. If he was paid like them, I'd keep him. Much more and I'd let somebody else bet against that 3-year decline.

[Ron Madden]

I really like Espinal and France is OK I guess but I wouldn't over pay them and ignore more urgent needs.