Nick Martinez Open To Staying In Cincinnati, Undecided On Opt-Out Clause

[RedTeamGo!]

It shouldn’t be shocking at all. QO’s tend to kill markets for pitchers, especially ones that are older and don’t have a long history of success as a starter.

If he can stay healthy he’ll wind up doing better on the open market next year.

I am just always surprised when something works out for the Reds

[LeatherPants]

I am just always surprised when something works out for the Reds

Ah! Yes.

[westofyou]

I am just always surprised when something works out for the Reds

Which unfortunately happens as often (and is the equivalent) of finding a stray twenty in the dryer's lint liner

[RedTeamGo!]

Which unfortunately happens as often (and is the equivalent) of finding a stray twenty in the dryer's lint liner

I found a $20 in a jacket I hadn't worn in a few years last winter. It was embarrassing how excited I was. Took the family out for ice cream.

[Mitri]

It shouldn’t be shocking at all. QO’s tend to kill markets for pitchers, especially ones that are older and don’t have a long history of success as a starter.

If he can stay healthy he’ll wind up doing better on the open market next year.

Good call, you were right. What’s shocking to me is that the Reds made the offer in the first place.

I’m hopeful they won’t let this eat up all of their spending money, or else they wouldn’t have extended the QO.

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I found a $20 in a jacket I hadn't worn in a few years last winter. It was embarrassing how excited I was. Took the family out for ice cream.

I found a $50 on the ground a few months ago. It was the best thing to happen to me all year.

[Kingspoint]

But he's never been a full-time starter. He's been a swingman the last 3 years and is now 34 years old. I see a regression coming, especially if he has to suddenly pitch ~30 innings more than he has at any point in his career. You want more than 142 innings out of your No. 2 starter.

It's not a stretch anymore to go from swingman to Starter, especially coming off of 142 innings.

The "30-rule" refers to the number of innings where the player won't be risking injury. Martinez can go 172 innings without injury risk. With Starters only going 5 innings at a time, that's 34 Starts, or basically, Martinez never missing a turn. Very doable. His 3 years of effectiveness are much better than any Pitcher the REDS could hope to obtain in Free Agency, and probably even in trade.

[Kingspoint]

Heyman reports in his notes column this morning that Martinez is expected to accept the QO. Boras is Heyman's source often so that could definitely be true, or it could be Boras' way of pressuring teams to give Martinez a higher AAV or a third guaranteed year.

If he does accept, I'll be happy to have Nick back but hopefully that doesn't impact our spending elsewhere.

Boras is definitely a wait-until-the-last-minute moment. We won't know if Martinez will sign until Nov. 18th.

[corkedbat]

If Williamson was gonna be healthy, I'd feel decent about the starting rotation, but with he and Aguilar down for the season...not so much.

Greene
Lodolo
Martinez
Abbott
Lowder

Each of them staying healthy and pitching to their potential is a fairly solid rotation. Production aside though, I don't think anyone can realistically project these guys for 25-30 starts. Hopefully, they can get quality depth from Petty, but it's likely gonna take more than that.

Some are hoping Burns to make his debut this season, but even if it is possible chances are it won't come before late-July/early August. I was hoping to see both Ashcraft and Phillips convert to the bullpen this season, but now I think you need to keep one or both stretched out to step into the breach (Ashcraft in a swing role and Phillips in the L'ville rotation?).

Short of someone at the AA/AA level having a breakout year though, I believe Krall still has work to do on the rotation. I'm not talking about another $20M contract, but maybe a vet looking to bounce back on a show me deal or a versatile young guy as an add-on to a deal for a position player. Another Junis-type would be ideal.

[Kc61]

The more I read about the TV revenue situation, Reds are probably hoping mightily that Martinez rejects that QO.

LOL, if Nick accepts, I would love to be a fly on the wall during the Castellini-Krall chat that follows.

Reds guys probably figured Boras wouldn’t agree to that offer. Not his style. Wonder if they still feel that way now. Nail biting time?

[HokieRed]

If you offer 21 million to somebody, you better be ready to pay it. What kind of thinking is it anyway that you offer somebody 21 million expecting them not to take it?

[RedTeamGo!]

If you offer 21 million to somebody, you better be ready to pay it. What kind of thinking is it anyway that you offer somebody 21 million expecting them not to take it?

Yeah, I don't think the Reds are upset about it, but the hope is the player rejects it so you get another high draft pick

[JCM11]

Short of someone at the AA/AA level having a breakout year though, I believe Krall still has work to do on the rotation. I'm not talking about another $20M contract, but maybe a vet looking to bounce back on a show me deal or a versatile young guy as an add-on to a deal for a position player. Another Junis-type would be ideal.

Acuna should be a depth option for 2025. He Just turned 22 last month and is still improving. I could see him being pretty solid in AAA next year.

[CaiGuy]

They offered it because it is a win-win. Eighter they get a key innings-eater who gave them 140 above-average innings without any long-term commitment, or you get a draft pick. The Reds I think will be happy either way.

They have so little payroll on the books and they are a good margin below their payroll levels from a few years ago, so there is no concern that they can't "afford" him.

[mth123]

If you offer 21 million to somebody, you better be ready to pay it. What kind of thinking is it anyway that you offer somebody 21 million expecting them not to take it?

It's entirely possible that the Reds are fine with him taking it. They see the same thing that many of us see. The rotation needs the help. Ashcraft and Abbott have to be viewed as suspect. Lodolo misses 15 starts per year. Lowder has only made 6 big league starts and there are lots of possibilities concerning his performance once he's 10 or 15 starts into the season and the league has had a chance to adjust to him. It's a ton of promise, but it's also a much higher than usual amount of uncertainty for a typical contender. They need a guy and not just some cheap guy off the scrap heap.

If you think about it, the position side has a lot of guys returning to boost production from within. Candelario has had multiple seasons of 120 OPS+ and should be considered a candidate to bounce back. Matt McLain will be back. Friedl should have a full season. Top position prospects Collier, Arroyo and Stewart will all be starting in AA and within call-up distance. Spencer Steer had a sophomore slump, but his scouting report shows a 50 hit tool with a max of 60 and is a strong possibility to bounce back. Jake Fraley was sidelined with a long illness and the after-effects on his strength and spent the year with a huge distraction. CES will be back. Marte will have a fresh start after a lost year. I'm not confident in all of those guys, but the offensive side should improve from within.

Compare that to the pitching side. Montas and his 19 starts, Martinez and his 16 and Junis and his 41 innings (5 starts) are gone as of now. Williamson was next in line and he's out for the year. Aguiar made 7 starts and he's out too. Spiers made 10 starts and pitched poorly with both his ERA and FIP in excess of 5. Connor Phillips spent most of the year walking everyone to the point he was sent to the instructional complex. Chase Petty wasn't very good until his last 6 weeks or so. Andrew Abbott and Graham Ashcraft both ended the season on the IL with arm injuries and had FIP number of 5.02 and 4.82 respectively. Ashcraft had an ERA over 5 and both had pedestrian K/BB ratios in the low 2s and a propensity to allow HRs. There were many reasons to doubt Lucus Sims and Buck Farmer, but they combined to provide 106 innings with an ERA of 3.23 that will need to be replaced.

Honestly, if you look at the roster instead of focusing on last season's stats, the pitching might have more holes to fill than the position side. There needs to be significant investment in both. The Reds can see that. The scrap heap and minor leaguers who have already failed isn't good enough on either side. I hope Martinez is back. I'm not thrilled about paying him $21 Million either, but my guess is they'll work out an extension that will reduce that number. Focusing on one side or the other isn't going to fix this team. They need to acquire multiple bats and multiple arms. I think the prospects of getting the bats from within far exceeds the chances of getting the competitive innings they need on the pitching side.

[Lex2020]

I'm thinking not a bad deal for both sides. Martinez will be 34 yrs old with the biggest single season earnings of his career. If he can sustain 2024 success then the Reds got a good pitcher with a cost that is favorable to the market. Best case is that he provides effectiveness manning a rotation spot for the entire season. Worst case, if he cannot repeat, well I think the Reds are only on the hook for one year.