Nick Martinez Open To Staying In Cincinnati, Undecided On Opt-Out Clause

[JCM11]

They offered it because it is a win-win. Eighter they get a key innings-eater who gave them 140 above-average innings without any long-term commitment, or you get a draft pick. The Reds I think will be happy either way.

They have so little payroll on the books and they are a good margin below their payroll levels from a few years ago, so there is no concern that they can't "afford" him.

If Martinez accepts and they bring back their arb eligible players they will be around 90 million in payroll. That doesn't leave much wiggle room to add a meaningful bat in FA unless they want to blow past that 100 million level.

[757690]

I’m done trying to guess what the Reds plans are for 2025. They’ve surprised me with every move. I don’t think we should assume anything about them at this point, good or bad. I’ve liked every move so far, so I’m just going to enjoy the ride this offseason.

[Kc61]

If you offer 21 million to somebody, you better be ready to pay it. What kind of thinking is it anyway that you offer somebody 21 million expecting them not to take it?

Almost all QOs are made with the expectation of rejection. In most cases, the FA is going to want a multi-year deal. So it’s a free draft choice, the odds are low of QO acceptance. There have been few QOs accepted under that system of draft compensation.

In the Reds case, they seldom use the QO and when they do it’s because they expect rejection.

In Martinez’ case, there was some risk, but with Boras - not that high. I’m sure Reds would much rather Martinez reject it (or negotiate something more palatable). If he accepts, it’ll come out of other spending. They’ll spend less on other players, or they’ll trade off salaries, or both. Anyone expecting Santander or Teoscar AND Martinez at $21 million is reaching IMO.

This is the Reds. There is no free lunch.

[757690]

This is the Reds. There is no free lunch.

But so far, this has not been the Reds, not the Reds we’ve been used to. Again, I’m not assuming anything.

[LeatherPants]

Just want to point out that while I do believe that Martinez was always going to accept the QO once it was offered because QO's kill the markets of guys like Martinez, the only report saying that he actually is going to take the QO is from John Heyman, and John Heyman is a knucklehead and anything that he reports should be ignored until confirmed by someone else.

So while Heyman is backing up what my personal belief is, the fact that it is Heyman makes me think that he's not going to take the QO.

[Kc61]

But so far, this has not been the Reds, not the Reds we’ve been used to. Again, I’m not assuming anything.

Wishful thinking. When they start spending on players, send me a wake up call. The rest of this is just conjecture.

The same conjecture we hear from the usual posters every season, I might add.

The critical fact so far is a reduction in TV revenue. They hired a manager which could mean more player spending or less player spending. Maybe the idea is that Tito can work better than others with a cheap team.

[HokieRed]

It's entirely possible that the Reds are fine with him taking it. They see the same thing that many of us see. The rotation needs the help. Ashcraft and Abbott have to be viewed as suspect. Lodolo misses 15 starts per year. Lowder has only made 6 big league starts and there are lots of possibilities concerning his performance once he's 10 or 15 starts into the season and the league has had a chance to adjust to him. It's a ton of promise, but it's also a much higher than usual amount of uncertainty for a typical contender. They need a guy and not just some cheap guy off the scrap heap.

If you think about it, the position side has a lot of guys returning to boost production from within. Candelario has had multiple seasons of 120 OPS+ and should be considered a candidate to bounce back. Matt McLain will be back. Friedl should have a full season. Top position prospects Collier, Arroyo and Stewart will all be starting in AA and within call-up distance. Spencer Steer had a sophomore slump, but his scouting report shows a 50 hit tool with a max of 60 and is a strong possibility to bounce back. Jake Fraley was sidelined with a long illness and the after-effects on his strength and spent the year with a huge distraction. CES will be back. Marte will have a fresh start after a lost year. I'm not confident in all of those guys, but the offensive side should improve from within.

Compare that to the pitching side. Montas and his 19 starts, Martinez and his 16 and Junis and his 41 innings (5 starts) are gone as of now. Williamson was next in line and he's out for the year. Aguiar made 7 starts and he's out too. Spiers made 10 starts and pitched poorly with both his ERA and FIP in excess of 5. Connor Phillips spent most of the year walking everyone to the point he was sent to the instructional complex. Chase Petty wasn't very good until his last 6 weeks or so. Andrew Abbott and Graham Ashcraft both ended the season on the IL with arm injuries and had FIP number of 5.02 and 4.82 respectively. Ashcraft had an ERA over 5 and both had pedestrian K/BB ratios in the low 2s and a propensity to allow HRs. There were many reasons to doubt Lucus Sims and Buck Farmer, but they combined to provide 106 innings with an ERA of 3.23 that will need to be replaced.

Honestly, if you look at the roster instead of focusing on last season's stats, the pitching might have more holes to fill than the position side. There needs to be significant investment in both. The Reds can see that. The scrap heap and minor leaguers who have already failed isn't good enough on either side. I hope Martinez is back. I'm not thrilled about paying him $21 Million either, but my guess is they'll work out an extension that will reduce that number. Focusing on one side or the other isn't going to fix this team. They need to acquire multiple bats and multiple arms. I think the prospects of getting the bats from within far exceeds the chances of getting the competitive innings they need on the pitching side.

Couldn't agree more. I think they made the offer hoping he'd take it, and I think he's their best chance to get somebody for the rotation who'll potentially make a difference, not just occupy innings. And, like you, I think there are way too many uncertainties in the rotation to simply declare it ok. Maybe by next year, not now. And if they don't deepen the rotation, the other stuff doesn't matter.

[Bourgeois Zee]

If Williamson was gonna be healthy, I'd feel decent about the starting rotation, but with he and Aguilar down for the season...not so much.

Greene
Lodolo
Martinez
Abbott
Lowder

Each of them staying healthy and pitching to their potential is a fairly solid rotation. Production aside though, I don't think anyone can realistically project these guys for 25-30 starts. Hopefully, they can get quality depth from Petty, but it's likely gonna take more than that.

Not just Petty and Burns.

They also have Connor Phillips, who's got as good a stuff as any starter in the Red system, Chase Burns included. He often doesn't know where it's headed, but he's talented enough to give him a shot.
Then there's Jose Acuna, who's already been mentioned. He's pitching well in the AFL currently and could be a sneaky good guy similar to Julian Aguiar.
There's also last year's depth piece, Carson Spiers. He's shown flashes at the major league level.
They can also turn to Brent Suter, who pitched well in one-time-through opener games; Lyon Richardson, who looks like he's going to be put in that role in AAA; or most likely, Graham Ashcraft, as a middling BOR guy they know.

This, too, doesn't include any of the AAAA free agents they've habitually turned to as starters go on the shelf in previous seasons. (The Ben Livelys of the world.)

The five Red starters they have are clearly their best five. Beyond them are levels of questionable production, but at least there's upside there that often isn't available in most seasons. As a small market squad (with cheap ownership that doesn't care much about winning), they'll always have to answer questions during the season. This year, it seems as if the rotation has quality answers in the 1-5 spots and at least a solid answer for slots 6-14.

That, to me, is progress.

[UPRedsFan]

If you offer 21 million to somebody, you better be ready to pay it. What kind of thinking is it anyway that you offer somebody 21 million expecting them not to take it?

100% correct. They are ready to pay it. Business people at that level don't take risks with $21 million investments. They plan for both outcomes and calculate the financial risk both ways.

[Kc61]

100% correct. They are ready to pay it. Business people at that level don't take risks with $21 million investments. They plan for both outcomes and calculate the financial risk both ways.

Of course they are ready to pay it. They’ll have no choice. But they’ll have plenty of choices with outfielders. Expect the cheaper choices to prevail. The Reds won’t violate their internal salary cap, not for Martinez or anyone else. It’s a hard cap.

[WrongVerb]

Just want to point out that while I do believe that Martinez was always going to accept the QO once it was offered because QO's kill the markets of guys like Martinez, the only report saying that he actually is going to take the QO is from John Heyman, and John Heyman is a knucklehead and anything that he reports should be ignored until confirmed by someone else.

So while Heyman is backing up what my personal belief is, the fact that it is Heyman makes me think that he's not going to take the QO.

There is another option: Martinez stays, but the Reds sign him to a multi-year deal. That makes Heyman wrong, but your sense that Martinez would stay is correct.

[RedsManRick]

He hasn't actually accepted it yet, correct? He's still got until the 19th to decide.

Maybe he does wind up accepting it. But the way it came out, it read to me like a leveraging ploy. "You better offer better than 2/30, because my client is perfectly happy taking the 1/21 that's already on the table."

That said, the part of this that I have no seen discussed is the cost of signing a QO guy. If you're the Mets, do you want to give up your 2nd and 5th pick in the draft (or 3rd and 6th if he's not the only QO guy) plus the associated pool money, plus $1M int'l pool money?

I've seen some analysis that says a 2nd round pick is worth about $6-8M surplus value and a 5th around $1-2M (typically about 5x the associated slot bonus). Not sure how international bonus pool money is valued, but let's say it's the same. So we're talking about giving up $10-15M in surplus value for the privilege of signing Martinez. When you're talking about a Willy Adames who is going to get at least $150M, that's not a big deal, it's like a 5-10% kicker. For Martinez, who is looking at something in the 30-60 range, you're talking a 20-50%. Instead of offering him 3/50, maybe you can get a better or comparable guy for 3/60.

So that reality might take many of his potential suitors off the table, leaving only down-market teams who wouldn't bear the same cost.

I think the Reds were probably correct in extending him the QO, but I think there was always a healthy chance he accepted it. And if he does, that almost certainly takes any other notable FA signings off the table. Though it may make us more active in the trade market.

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transac...alifying-offer

• Competitive Balance Tax payors: A team that exceeded the CBT threshold in the preceding season will lose its second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year's Draft, as well as $1 million from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If such a team signs multiple qualifying-offer free agents, it will forfeit its third- and sixth-highest picks as well.

• Revenue-sharing recipients: A team that receives revenue-sharing money will lose its third-highest selection in the following year's Draft. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its fourth-highest pick.

• All other teams: If a team does not receive revenue sharing and did not exceed the CBT salary threshold in the previous season, it will lose its second-highest selection in the following year's Draft, as well as $500,000 from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If one of these teams signs two such players, it will also forfeit its third-highest pick.

[backbencher]

He hasn't actually accepted it yet, correct? He's still got until the 19th to decide.

Maybe he does wind up accepting it. But the way it came out, it read to me like a leveraging ploy. "You better offer better than 2/30, because my client is perfectly happy taking the 1/21 that's already on the table."

That said, the part of this that I have no seen discussed is the cost of signing a QO guy. If you're the Mets, do you want to give up your 2nd and 5th pick in the draft (or 3rd and 6th if he's not the only QO guy) plus the associated pool money, plus $1M int'l pool money?

I've seen some analysis that says a 2nd round pick is worth about $6-8M surplus value and a 5th around $1-2M (typically about 5x the associated slot bonus). Not sure how international bonus pool money is valued, but let's say it's the same. So we're talking about giving up $10-15M in surplus value for the privilege of signing Martinez. When you're talking about a Willy Adames who is going to get at least $150M, that's not a big deal, it's like a 5-10% kicker. For Martinez, who is looking at something in the 30-60 range, you're talking a 20-50%. Instead of offering him 3/50, maybe you can get a better or comparable guy for 3/60.

So that reality might take many of his potential suitors off the table, leaving only down-market teams who wouldn't bear the same cost.

I think the Reds were probably correct in extending him the QO, but I think there was always a healthy chance he accepted it. And if he does, that almost certainly takes any other notable FA signings off the table. Though it may make us more active in the trade market.

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transac...alifying-offer

Good explanation for the phenomenon Kc61 has been describing. QOs suppress value, especially for marginal QOs and older guys who may not warrant longer-term deals.

To state the obvious, the Reds clearly see Martinez as a starter for '25, rather than a swing arm. I'd see this as their Montas replacement. Spend an extra $5 million (Montas was 14 + 2), get both a better recent track record and more certainty (less injury risk). Less important, given the inevitability of pitching staff injuries, but the team also gets flexiblity to turn Martinez back into a swing if Burns pulls a Skenes and can't be denied a rotation spot.

Accepted QO may be third-best option after (1) two-year deal at lower AAV and (2) decline and Reds get a pick, but all three scenarios are wins in my view.

[Mitri]

Of course they are ready to pay it. They’ll have no choice. But they’ll have plenty of choices with outfielders. Expect the cheaper choices to prevail. The Reds won’t violate their internal salary cap, not for Martinez or anyone else. It’s a hard cap.

They weren’t buying a top-shelf outfielder either way. Nor should they. Santander and Teoscar will fetch deals beyond the Reds’ means and to be honest, Reds need a CF or true RF at least.

Reds were and will be fine with Martinez picking up this QO because it’s a short deal. That is the Reds’ MO: shortened deals equal less risk.

Also, they were going to need to spend $15MM or so on these innings if they want quality. Might as well get a sure thing and just non-tender Espinal to balance the books.

[Chip R]

This is a great decision if Martinez signs and pitches well.

This is a terrible decision if Martinez signs and doesn't pitch well.