Arizona Fall League 2024

[Bourgeois Zee]

Arroyo, CES, and McLain are all playing tonight. All three are working on multiple hit games-- McLain has 2 HR. He has 4 HR in 48 AFL PA. CES is now hitting .409 in the AFL. Arroyo has stolen 2 more bases-- he's now got 7 in 71 PA. Arroyo and McLain are the double play combination while CES is DHing. Also, Arij Fransen has given up 2 more ER in 2 IP. You can go ahead and mark him off the Red 40-man roster considerations, at this point.

[Dave C]

Arroyo, CES, and McLain are all playing tonight. All three are working on multiple hit games-- McLain has 2 HR. He has 4 HR in 48 AFL PA. CES is now hitting .409 in the AFL. Arroyo has stolen 2 more bases-- he's now got 7 in 71 PA. Arroyo and McLain are the double play combination while CES is DHing. Also, Arij Fransen has given up 2 more ER in 2 IP. You can go ahead and mark him off the Red 40-man roster considerations, at this point.

Was at the game today... . Good stuff by the Reds all around. CES with a stolen base too....on the backend of a double steal. McLain looks locked in. All of his foul balls were straight back on top of his drilling 2 over the fence. Arroyo is sneaky fast. He's always a step out of the box is seems before he's fully finished his swing. He's a rare player who never seems to swing for the fences these days. Under control in every AB I've seen at ST and AFL.

[Kingspoint]

Was at the game today... . Good stuff by the Reds all around. CES with a stolen base too....on the backend of a double steal. McLain looks locked in. All of his foul balls were straight back on top of his drilling 2 over the fence. Arroyo is sneaky fast. He's always a step out of the box is seems before he's fully finished his swing. He's a rare player who never seems to swing for the fences these days. Under control in every AB I've seen at ST and AFL.

What scouts are you noticing while you've been there?

I'm wondering if anyone is looking at Arroyo.

[medford]

Do Scouts typically wear something that identifies which team they are with? Or would you have to know which scout is which and who they worked for in order to know?

Is it as simple as a casual fan could look over and see a 2 guys in a Blue Jays polo, 1 in a Mets polo and a 4th in a Royals polo and know which teams were scouting that day? I would assume most wear non identifiable clothing so as to limit the amount of questions they get from the fans they run into.

Which brings me to an interesting memory. Many years ago, Xavier and David West were playing a game vs the Flyers in UD arena. Jerry Krause (Bulls GM during the Jordan era and still GM of the bulls at that time) was there scouting West (presumably that was the main focus). Krause was sitting about 8 rows up behind the Xavier bench, sitting along the railing that aligns with the tunnel going back to the locker rooms (for those familiar with UD arena) My father's seats were pretty much on the opposite side of that tunnel, so I had a pretty good view of Krause the entire game. Sitting directly next to Krause was an older lady that i assume had 0 clue (or interest) in who the man was. In fact, I may have been one of the few people that recognized him during the game. Anyhoo, it was interesting watching him scribble notes into his tiniest of tiny notebooks, hunched over like he was protecting the nuclear secrets from the Russians during the cold war. 0 chance Jerry was about to let anyone else around him get any kind of inkling into what he was seeing/thought about West during that game. Krause was always a bit of a strange bird, so maybe most NBA scouts/GMs don't watch a game in the same manner. I've always got the sense that baseball scouts are much more open and approachable when "on the job"

[Bourgeois Zee]

Do Scouts typically wear something that identifies which team they are with? Or would you have to know which scout is which and who they worked for in order to know?

Is it as simple as a casual fan could look over and see a 2 guys in a Blue Jays polo, 1 in a Mets polo and a 4th in a Royals polo and know which teams were scouting that day? I would assume most wear non identifiable clothing so as to limit the amount of questions they get from the fans they run into.

Which brings me to an interesting memory. Many years ago, Xavier and David West were playing a game vs the Flyers in UD arena. Jerry Krause (Bulls GM during the Jordan era and still GM of the bulls at that time) was there scouting West (presumably that was the main focus). Krause was sitting about 8 rows up behind the Xavier bench, sitting along the railing that aligns with the tunnel going back to the locker rooms (for those familiar with UD arena) My father's seats were pretty much on the opposite side of that tunnel, so I had a pretty good view of Krause the entire game. Sitting directly next to Krause was an older lady that i assume had 0 clue (or interest) in who the man was. In fact, I may have been one of the few people that recognized him during the game. Anyhoo, it was interesting watching him scribble notes into his tiniest of tiny notebooks, hunched over like he was protecting the nuclear secrets from the Russians during the cold war. 0 chance Jerry was about to let anyone else around him get any kind of inkling into what he was seeing/thought about West during that game. Krause was always a bit of a strange bird, so maybe most NBA scouts/GMs don't watch a game in the same manner. I've always got the sense that baseball scouts are much more open and approachable when "on the job"

Most do wear team colors or polos-- even when scouting. They also "scout" everyone-- or at least nearly so.

It's fun to talk to a scout who'll talk back. In my experience, they're about half and half-- half are willing talkers who will try to explain the minutae of the game or a specific player, while half would rather chew an arm off than to talk with a plebe with little clur or expertise.

[Kingspoint]

Do Scouts typically wear something that identifies which team they are with? Or would you have to know which scout is which and who they worked for in order to know?

Is it as simple as a casual fan could look over and see a 2 guys in a Blue Jays polo, 1 in a Mets polo and a 4th in a Royals polo and know which teams were scouting that day? I would assume most wear non identifiable clothing so as to limit the amount of questions they get from the fans they run into.

Which brings me to an interesting memory. Many years ago, Xavier and David West were playing a game vs the Flyers in UD arena. Jerry Krause (Bulls GM during the Jordan era and still GM of the bulls at that time) was there scouting West (presumably that was the main focus). Krause was sitting about 8 rows up behind the Xavier bench, sitting along the railing that aligns with the tunnel going back to the locker rooms (for those familiar with UD arena) My father's seats were pretty much on the opposite side of that tunnel, so I had a pretty good view of Krause the entire game. Sitting directly next to Krause was an older lady that i assume had 0 clue (or interest) in who the man was. In fact, I may have been one of the few people that recognized him during the game. Anyhoo, it was interesting watching him scribble notes into his tiniest of tiny notebooks, hunched over like he was protecting the nuclear secrets from the Russians during the cold war. 0 chance Jerry was about to let anyone else around him get any kind of inkling into what he was seeing/thought about West during that game. Krause was always a bit of a strange bird, so maybe most NBA scouts/GMs don't watch a game in the same manner. I've always got the sense that baseball scouts are much more open and approachable when "on the job"

It takes experience to recognize who is the scout in the crowd. A lot of things give it away...where they sit, when or how they take notes, what they're looking at, how they are viewing the game, and having seen them before, as they'll spend consecutive days at a place, if the situation warrants. They're looking for quirks, nuances, negatives (fixable or not fixable) of a player, or raw talent that jumps, mental qualities, especially pitchers.

[icehole3]

My old boss would give me his season tickets behind home plate when he wasn't going. About a dozen every year when Dunn, Bruce were around. You could tell by the notebooks which team was in town scouting. Dodgers, Yankees, RedSox. The big boys.

[Kingspoint]

1st pitch in 15 minutes...

Attachment 22100

[Kingspoint]

Callihan struck out looking to lead off the game on a pitch 4 inches outside the strikezone. So what does he do next time up? Takes matters into his own hands and deposits the ball over the fence. Through 7 innings that was the only run of the game for the Dogs. Rosario went 3 innings and struck out 7, with no Walks and just one hit (Triple) and no runs.

[Kingspoint]

In today's Arizona Fall League Championship Quarterfinals, Connor Phillips got the loss. Matt McLain got 3 Singles and was involved in converting 2 Double-plays, and he added a SB. Tyler Callihan had a Single and a Double, drawing a Walk and scoring twice. McLain knocked in 3 runs, half of his teams runs in a 1-run loss, while he scored once as the players behind McLain failed to get him in the other two times. CES was used as a PR late.

[Kc61]

I thought it was a successful AFL for Reds. Injured guys got a chance to play, McLain, Arroyo, Strand to some extent. Callihan got exposure and acquitted himself well. Mey is on the radar screen as possible late inning reliever. Acuna, others did ok. Reds used the AFL well this year.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I'd planned on doing a deep dive into the numbers from the players, but these are thumbnails:

Offensively:
1. McLain still has real power-- which is good news for his would-be lat injury. Penciling McLain into the #2 hole and the 2B spot is, based on his AFL numbers, far less of a risk than it was pre-AFL.

2. CES still has work to show. While he hit very, very well, the underlying metrics-- a distinct lack of power and 9 Ks in 32 PAs-- show enough worry that he'll need to show out in Spring Training to earn a spot on the Opening Day roster.

3. Tyler Callihan shows exceptionally good speed and patience. By the end of his time in Arizona, he was also powering up a bit. He was okay defensively too and with development, could be a solid defender in LF. He's on the TJ Friedl path-- but a possible 2B/ LF utility guy might play really well with the current Red 40-man. Definitely needs to be protected, though Cincinnati already has six AAAA minor leaguers. (Expect that group to be winnowed.)

4. Edwin Arroyo started out hot, then cooled off considerably. Worrisome K issues too. Defensively, he showed enough to stick at SS, but he doesn't appear to be special out there. Little power in 81 PAs too. IMO, he belongs in AA. Good news is that he's young enough that last year's injury won't affect him all that much.

Pitching:
1. Luis Mey might be a difference-maker as a relief arm. Shades of Aroldis in his development. Still way, way too wild, but the Reds would be foolish not to add him to the 40-man roster. He, Moore (maybe), and Maxwell are going to be given shots this year to impress-- and Mey may well end up in the back-end of the pen as soon as April.

2. Connor Phillips was good enough in a starting role to continue that role in 2025. That said, I wouldn't be shocked to see him moved to a hybrid role to take advantage of his prodigious stuff. High 90s plus a wipe-out slider plus more behind belongs on a major league staff somewhere. He still needs to harness his control, but he definitely took positive steps in the AFL.

3. Jose Acuna just keeps getting the job done. His peripherals weren't shiny, but in an interesting direction. He bumped up his Ks to a rather gaudy 11.5/9. The HR total stayed low, but he struggled to find the zone. (Part of that can be small samples-- one outing really affected those BB totals, but we're only talking about a few starts and innings anyway. Everything is small sample.) Regardless, he's a legitmate prospect who, I suspect, will be protected and used as SP depth if healthy. Because of roster issues, he, Spiers, and Phillips (and maybe Richardson, if he moves back to the rotation) are ahead of Chase Petty in the prospect pecking order. That means, like Julian Aguiar last year, he's probably going to get a shot before bigger guns (Burns and Petty) show up.

Overview:
- So, so many AAA OF who still have massive questions and relatively low ceilings. Hurtubise gets on base, runs like a deer, and plays legitimate CF defense. Wiemer is a Gold Glove candidate with real power and no clue at the plate. Hinds has all the tools, but a 40% K rate. Dunn is a combination of all their best and worst traits. Add Callihan, a hit-tool/ speed guy limited by a weak arm. Add too, most likely Benson, who needs some time to recollect himself after a disastrous 2024. What an odd problem to have. What an odd group. Six guy for, at most, three spots. Expect deals and nontenders and all sorts of roster shenanigans.

- Speaking of glut, three 1B utliity gloves are nominally on the Red roster, yet none of the three might remain there. Steer could well be a LF or (gulp) 3B, but is better positioned at DH. Candelario's 2024 season was bad offensively and defensively. At this point, he's a DH-- but the Reds might try him again at 3B, where his bat makes much more sense. And then there's CES. He played in RF quite a bit and didn't look out of position. He might well be the corner utility guy moving forward-- and a possible replacement for Stuart Fairchild in a RF platoon with Fraley. Unless the Reds add a FA, expect the Reds to mix and match a bunch, with all three guys at various positions along the field.

- Arroyo isn't yet ready to unseat EDLC at SS. We know EDLC is among the most impactful defenders at shortstop simply due to genetics-- no one has his combination of speed, quickness, length, range, and arm strength. Dude is an absolute difference-maker at SS. Arroyo will have to shine brightly to replace that (as the Reds seem to know how impactful EDLC is). I'm guessing Krall and company will look to deal Arroyo elsewhere this off-season. Unfortunately, Arroyo's AFL was so-so at best. That said, moving McLain-- at least for a few innings-- to CF might be a sign that Krall will entertain an Arroyo/ EDLC combination up the middle. (Or perhaps he really likes India.)

- Phillips and Acuna are legitimate starting candidates, but both struggled to throw strikes in the AFL. They have rope in AAA currently-- I've got Phillips, Acuna, Chase Petty, and Carson Spiers as four AAA depth options, all of whom are on the 40-man roster-- but Chase Burns will be there eventually. Burns is clearly fantastic, with Paul Skenes-like stuff. (And I don't say that lightly.) If they want to remain long-term MLB players, both might want to push for relief roles. Then again, both showed glimpses of potential that might make them above-average SP if given the chance.

- Mey solidified himself, IMO, on the 40-man roster. His upside and stuff may well make him a tantalyzing option for a team that will almost assuredly need a back-end relief arm. With a great Spring Training (a la Alexis Diaz in 2022), Mey could end up either a fireman or closer out of Spring Training. By himself, he transforms the bullpen hierarchy-- and makes the prospects housed there at least interesting, if not slam dunk dominators. Zulueta is already going to be given a shot. Mey is probably next in the pecking order. Moore might also be given a roster spot. That means Zach Maxwell can be given a longer leash in AAA. It might also mean Lyon Richardson moves back to the AAA rotation-- though I hope not. Too, that quartet might mean Krall and company hold off on moving Phillips, Acuna, or other starters to the pen. There are legitimate options there, after all.

[Kc61]

Great post by BZ, agree with so much of it. Didn’t realize that forty man rosters must be set by Tuesday the 19th at 6pm. That’s, like, right now. So we can expect some decisions in next few days.

[Kingspoint]

Yes. Great post, BZ. I'm hoping the REDS see it the same way.

- - - Updated - - -

Mey's breakout has been like trading for a $40M/4yrs Relief arm, but having someone else pay the bill.

[Dave C]

What scouts are you noticing while you've been there?

I'm wondering if anyone is looking at Arroyo.

The crowds at these games are pretty thin. Guys with iPad and talking on the phone for most of the game sitting behind the plate stick out a little.

There's a group of 4 or 5 guys who've been at every game I went to. They are obviously either the pro player developers who area all over PHX in the offseason or scouts. Their focus on most days was the pitchers as far as I could tell.