Thoughts on Sonny Gray?

[mth123]

According to MLBTR, Gray has a full no-trade clause. All the leverage is with him. Unless he opens things up for a bidding war, the Cardinals will either have to eat a significant portion of his salary to get prospects back and/or get very little in trade. If location and family were huge drivers for him, I expect him to be a Cardinal next season as he will keep a tight list of approved teams.

Gray is from Smyrna, Tennessee. He wants to be close to home. Cincinnati is about the same distance from there as St. Louis is. He has a history with Derek Johnson. I think his desire to be in St. Louis was because he knew Cincinnati was too cheap to sign him to a good deal and St. Louis was the only other spot that fit his geographical desires. If the Reds are willing to take him at his current contract, I don't think he'd object.

[Ren Deagle]

He has a no trade clause. That complicates things. Don't assume a good pitcher is going to willingly come to GABP when they have control over where they go.

Plus, NEVER HELP THE CARDINALS

[mth123]

He has a no trade clause. That complicates things. Don't assume a good pitcher is going to willingly come to GABP when they have control over where they go.

Plus, NEVER HELP THE CARDINALS

He's pitched here before and was successful. Actually, it resurrected his career after his terrible time in New York. He's not looking for a a one-year deal to set him up for free agency. I can see why those guys wouldn't come to GABP. I don't see Gray, who already has his deal and has been successful here before, objecting in the same way.

[MoneyInTheBank]

Gray is from Smyrna, Tennessee. He wants to be close to home. Cincinnati is about the same distance from there as St. Louis is. He has a history with Derek Johnson. I think his desire to be in St. Louis was because he knew Cincinnati was too cheap to sign him to a good deal and St. Louis was the only other spot that fit his geographical desires. If the Reds are willing to take him at his current contract, I don't think he'd object.

That's my point. He likely wouldn't object to the Reds but, if he tells the Cardinals it's the Reds or bust, I don't see the Cardinals:

A. Paying Sonny Grey to pitch for a division rival
B. Unloading Sonny Grey for little prospect capital (especially to a division rival)

[mth123]

That's my point. He likely wouldn't object to the Reds but, if he tells the Cardinals it's the Reds or bust, I don't see the Cardinals:

A. Paying Sonny Grey to pitch for a division rival
B. Unloading Sonny Grey for little prospect capital (especially to a division rival)

I don't care if they have to pay for him. I'd happily send Chase Petty and Carlos Jorge to acquire Gray at his entire salary. As far as players on the team doing their jobs, only EDLC and Hunter Greene are better on the current 40-man roster. The Reds need players who actually perform at the big-league level. Gray would be a huge upgrade.

[Chip R]

He’s got a no trade clause in his current deal, so that’s going to be a roadblock.

I would guess that is the rub. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. I doubt he bears a lot of ill will towards the Reds but there's going to be a new manager coming in. He may not want to walk into that kind of a situation.

[MoneyInTheBank]

I don't care if they have to pay for him. I'd happily send Chase Petty and Carlos Jorge to acquire Gray at his entire salary. As far as players on the team doing their jobs, only EDLC and Hunter Greene are better on the current 40-man roster. The Reds need players who actually perform at the big-league level. Gray would be a huge upgrade.

That would be a wildly irresponsible use of resources, IMO. Paying more in prospect capital than it took to trade him away on an absolute bargain contract and have to pay him like an ace for his age 35 and 36 seasons. Not to mention he closed the year on the IL with forearm tendinitis.

[757690]

I don't care if they have to pay for him. I'd happily send Chase Petty and Carlos Jorge to acquire Gray at his entire salary.

If the Reds take on Gray’s whole salary, they don’t have to trade any actual prospects. And I wouldn’t trade Petty and Jorge for two years of Gray at his age even if Gray was getting paid the minimum.

Gray’s a good target, but he’s not going to cost much prospect wise, even if the Cardinals eat most of his contract.

[Slyder]

Cards are thinking about trading him. Would he cost too much?

At this point they need to find the next Sonny Gray/Bronson Arroyo/Dylan Cease. If ownership is going to continue to be stingy with the funds then you have to be certain on likelihood. This is coming from a guy who was ... (trying to not get a strike)... irate... when they gave away a large chunk of the core of the team without trying to get something to improve the immediate team.

Gray will be 35 next year, made 28 starts this year (which would rate him at the top of the reds staff), Makes 65 mil the next two years. Unless the Cards are just giving him away (no one above 15-20 on the prospect chart) with cash/take Candelario's contract, that's risk of the Moose variety. When he was being discussed as a FA he's a poster boy for proposing a front loaded deal. 35/25/15. Takes age into account and likely hood of decline into account while not punishing him.

[MoneyInTheBank]

At this point they need to find the next Sonny Gray/Bronson Arroyo/Dylan Cease. If ownership is going to continue to be stingy with the funds then you have to be certain on likelihood. This is coming from a guy who was ... (trying to not get a strike)... irate... when they gave away a large chunk of the core of the team without trying to get something to improve the immediate team.

Gray will be 35 next year, made 28 starts this year (which would rate him at the top of the reds staff), Makes 55 mil the next two years. Unless the Cards are just giving him away (no one above 15-20 on the prospect chart) with cash, that's risk of the Moose variety. When he was being discussed as a FA he's a poster boy for proposing a front loaded deal. 35/25/15. Takes age into account and likely hood of decline into account while not punishing him.

One note... the contract was backloaded, so he's actually owed $65M the next 2 years

[RiverfrontRed]

I'll pass and spend that money on offense.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I don't think Sonny Gray should be dismissed so quickly as many seem to be doing. I much prefer dealing for him to going with Aguiar or Spiers or some 6 ERA dude off the scrap heap that will cost $10 Million. Any one of those options will prevent the Reds from winning.

Assuming Martinez leaves, the in-house options are BOR SP Graham Ashcraft, last-season arbitration eligible Jakob Junis, AAA prospects Julian Aguiar and Connor Phillips, and depth AAA P Carson Spiers. They also have prospects Chase Burns, Chase Petty, and Jose Acuna as options later in the year.

Nearly every team in baseball has worse options for 5th starter than that group. I expect the Reds to turn to Junis in the same role as Martinez and hope for a similar result. As a SP, his lifetime numbers are certainly adequate:.263/ .317/ .447/ .764 across nearly 620+ starter innings and 116 starts, with an ERA of 4.53 and a WHiP of 1.284.

That's really good for a 5th starter-- especially behind Greene, Lodolo, Abbott, and Lowder.

[RedsManRick]

I liked him as a free agent. I don't like the idea of having to pay him FA prices AND give up assets in a trade. I'd rather just pay Martinez to stick around.

[RedsBrick]

Umm, Sonny Gray threw 24 IP more than Nick Martinez this season, 73.2 more last season, 13.1 the year before and significantly more in every single season from 2014-17 during Martinez's first stint in the majors.

Gray started 12 more games than Martinez this season, 23 more last season and 9 more the year before. Stands to reason his innings pitched would be higher.

[Wonderful Monds]

Gray started 12 more games than Martinez this season, 23 more last season and 9 more the year before. Stands to reason his innings pitched would be higher.

He started half a seasons worth of games at 16 and pitched in 42 total for 142 innings, with a WHIP just over 1.

That’s pretty dang valuable. I’m not docking him points for being able to be versatile as a swingman like that.