Thoughts on Sonny Gray?

[HokieRed]

But, in a vacuum, they absolutely would give up Chase Petty for a pitcher of Gray's quality and count themselves lucky in the bargain. The only reason they wouldn't is because it would mean they gave away three seasons of 3.24 ERA pitching from Gray.

Yet they still should do it because it would be the funniest thing ever. If this franchise isn't providing laughs, then what's it there for?

It provides a lot of laughs unintentionally now; I don't know if I could take it if it started trying to do so intentionally as well.

[GAC]

Instead of Gray, how about focusing their attention on getting Martinez to stay, sign a new contract?

[Benihana]

I’d trade any two of Connor Phillips/Julian Aguiar/Ty Floyd/Graham Ashcraft for Sonny Gray, but only if the Cards pick up salary so it’s a 2/40 deal. I’d even include Candelario to make the money close to even.

I would not trade Petty for Gray, nor would I acquire Gray at his current contract’s full value. If you’re going to spend that kind of money, spend it on offense, particularly in the OF. And I like Sonny Gray a lot.

https://blogredmachine.com/posts/mut...-agent-mistake

Someone out there agrees with me. Candelario and one or two of Phillips/Aguiar/Ashcraft/Floyd, effectively getting Sonny Gray for 2/30. That’s probably better than what they could sign Martinez for. Cards save $30m and get a replacement for Goldschmidt as well as one or two young arms with upside. Then, for the Reds use any available payflex to sign Anthony Santander and/or trade for Luis Robert.

And keep India to be your insurance policy on Marte/CES not bouncing back, at least until Collier/Stewart are ready.

[CaiGuy]

The Reds' trade of Sonny Gray is a good microcosm of the small-market mentality that plagues them to mediocrity. It's not the manager, it's not fundamentals, or any other cliche...it's roster decisions.

They had him under control through 2023, when he had a $12.5M option.

The Reds went 82-80 in 2023, 2 games back in the WC race.

They opened the season with Luis Cessa (6 Starts, 9.00 ERA), and Connor Overton (3 starts, 11 ERA before sadly his elbow gave out). This was because Luke Weaver (21 starts, 6.87 ERA), opened the year on the IL.

Sonny Gray ended 2023 with a 2.79 ERA over 32 starts. You couldn't convince me that they aren't in the playoffs if they kept him around.

What's the big deal? They probably get romped in the first round anyway, right? Perhaps, but the ripple effect of keeping Gray and making the playoff to me is huge. The young core they called up get to experience the thrill of a playoff run. More people show up for games, and the team makes more money. This includes young ones who enjoy it and become future, paying fans of the team. The young players get some playoff experience. They perceive the team as a winning club, and are more likely to want to stay. The Reds have the advantage in keeping Gray himself, who they apparently wanted to sign this year. They become a more desirable destination for Free Agents. In short, there is ROI on that $12.5M.

Instead, they flip him and punt yet another couple of seasons. Impressing those young fans, growing the fanbase, and getting the young core playoff experience...all just more missed opportunities.

The funny part? They committed a collective $12.75M to Will Myers, Curt Casali, and Luke Weaver for 2023.

Now repeat that trade by dozens of times over, and that's how you get the Reds sitting home every October.

[RedForLife]

How our FO arrives at their conclusions is a complete mystery. Everyone here knows this. But, Lodolo, Abbott and Lowder need new contracts. Greene is signed through 2029. If they keep Martinez (and save some young talent, too), keep Lodolo, Lowder and Abbott our rotation next year will be quite formidable.

Greene, Lodolo, Abbott, Lowder, Martinez.

Works for me. Go Reds!

[Patrick Bateman]

The Reds' trade of Sonny Gray is a good microcosm of the small-market mentality that plagues them to mediocrity. It's not the manager, it's not fundamentals, or any other cliche...it's roster decisions.

They had him under control through 2023, when he had a $12.5M option.

The Reds went 82-80 in 2023, 2 games back in the WC race.

They opened the season with Luis Cessa (6 Starts, 9.00 ERA), and Connor Overton (3 starts, 11 ERA before sadly his elbow gave out). This was because Luke Weaver (21 starts, 6.87 ERA), opened the year on the IL.

Sonny Gray ended 2023 with a 2.79 ERA over 32 starts. You couldn't convince me that they aren't in the playoffs if they kept him around.

What's the big deal? They probably get romped in the first round anyway, right? Perhaps, but the ripple effect of keeping Gray and making the playoff to me is huge. The young core they called up get to experience the thrill of a playoff run. More people show up for games, and the team makes more money. This includes young ones who enjoy it and become future, paying fans of the team. The young players get some playoff experience. They perceive the team as a winning club, and are more likely to want to stay. The Reds have the advantage in keeping Gray himself, who they apparently wanted to sign this year. They become a more desirable destination for Free Agents. In short, there is ROI on that $12.5M.

Instead, they flip him and punt yet another couple of seasons. Impressing those young fans, growing the fanbase, and getting the young core playoff experience...all just more missed opportunities.

The funny part? They committed a collective $12.75M to Will Myers, Curt Casali, and Luke Weaver for 2023.

Now repeat that trade by dozens of times over, and that's how you get the Reds sitting home every October.

Well said.

That was typical Reds acting like they are a step ahead of everyone else, but it turns out they are 3 steps behind and really unaware.

[backbencher]

The Reds' trade of Sonny Gray is a good microcosm of the small-market mentality that plagues them to mediocrity. It's not the manager, it's not fundamentals, or any other cliche...it's roster decisions.

They had him under control through 2023, when he had a $12.5M option.

The Reds went 82-80 in 2023, 2 games back in the WC race.

They opened the season with Luis Cessa (6 Starts, 9.00 ERA), and Connor Overton (3 starts, 11 ERA before sadly his elbow gave out). This was because Luke Weaver (21 starts, 6.87 ERA), opened the year on the IL.

Sonny Gray ended 2023 with a 2.79 ERA over 32 starts. You couldn't convince me that they aren't in the playoffs if they kept him around.

What's the big deal? They probably get romped in the first round anyway, right? Perhaps, but the ripple effect of keeping Gray and making the playoff to me is huge. The young core they called up get to experience the thrill of a playoff run. More people show up for games, and the team makes more money. This includes young ones who enjoy it and become future, paying fans of the team. The young players get some playoff experience. They perceive the team as a winning club, and are more likely to want to stay. The Reds have the advantage in keeping Gray himself, who they apparently wanted to sign this year. They become a more desirable destination for Free Agents. In short, there is ROI on that $12.5M.

Instead, they flip him and punt yet another couple of seasons. Impressing those young fans, growing the fanbase, and getting the young core playoff experience...all just more missed opportunities.

The funny part? They committed a collective $12.75M to Will Myers, Curt Casali, and Luke Weaver for 2023.

Now repeat that trade by dozens of times over, and that's how you get the Reds sitting home every October.

Brilliant post, agree with everything written. Gray in 2023 would have been season-changing and perhaps even franchise-trajectory changing, given the accelerated development of the young players.

But this also leaves out a pretty significant fact: Gray was traded in 2022, not 2023. The Reds carried their largest-ever payroll into 2020, and all of 2019-2022 were comfortably over $110 million. No one cares whether the owners make money, but it is unrealistic to expect owners to finance losses.

The reason the Reds had to trade Gray - and I think it is fair to call it a "had to" - is that much of their other significant money during the 2021-22 window (Votto, Moustakas, Minor, Shogo, etc.) was untradeable. Hence, the Suarez, Gray deals.

[Old school 1983]

If it is strictly a financial move, why not Candy for Gray. Both teams get salary relief. St Lois could put Candy at 1b with Goldy leaving. Reds put Gray in the rotation.

[CySeymour]

If it is strictly a financial move, why not Candy for Gray. Both teams get salary relief. St Lois could put Candy at 1b with Goldy leaving. Reds put Gray in the rotation.

I'm sure their idea is to shed Gray's salary and replace it with several league minimum type guys.

[Old school 1983]

I'm sure their idea is to shed Gray's salary and replace it with several league minimum type guys.

Highly likely.

[JFLegal]

Yeah, the Cardinals are not going to trade Sonny Gray and take on Candy's terrible contract. They're either trading him for prospects or big salary relief (or both). Or they won't deal him IMO.

[RedsManRick]

If it is strictly a financial move, why not Candy for Gray. Both teams get salary relief. St Lois could put Candy at 1b with Goldy leaving. Reds put Gray in the rotation.

Presumably because they'd have better offers for Gray which provide them more financial relief and/or young players with more future value.

As a Reds fan? That would be a coup.

If the Cards were even open to a Candy/Gray foundation, I imagine the Reds would have to include something like Chase Petty and Carlos Jorge -- and possibly more than that.

[Mitri]

It'd have to be more like Arenado/Gray for Candelario and prospects. Reds take on more salary risk but give a bit away, and give them prospects to retool with.

[Kingspoint]

Seems remarkable that Luke Weaver is now the Yankees Closer (guessing Boone uses him before Holmes in a Closing opportunity) and having an outstanding season.

[Old school 1983]

It'd have to be more like Arenado/Gray for Candelario and prospects. Reds take on more salary risk but give a bit away, and give them prospects to retool with.

Did some math to this point. Let’s say the deal is Candy plus prospects to St Louis for Gray and Arenado. Colorado is paying $5 million for Arenado for the next 2 years. If the Reds can kick in the right prospects to get the birds to pay $5 million more of that plus $10 million on each of Grays next 2 years, the cardinals still save significant money and the Reds have a manageable payroll addition. According to my math the payroll decrease/increase for 2025 would be $21 million and for 2026 $29 million. If the prospects needed to make this happen are reasonable, I think it should be explored. Instantly adds a TOR type pitcher and solidifies 3b. Maybe after that sign a guy like Carlos Santana…history with Tito, and you can let Marte and CES start in AAA, become Trade pieces or get shifted to the OF.