Thoughts on Sonny Gray?

[CaiGuy]

Brilliant post, agree with everything written. Gray in 2023 would have been season-changing and perhaps even franchise-trajectory changing, given the accelerated development of the young players.

But this also leaves out a pretty significant fact: Gray was traded in 2022, not 2023. The Reds carried their largest-ever payroll into 2020, and all of 2019-2022 were comfortably over $110 million. No one cares whether the owners make money, but it is unrealistic to expect owners to finance losses.

The reason the Reds had to trade Gray - and I think it is fair to call it a "had to" - is that much of their other significant money during the 2021-22 window (Votto, Moustakas, Minor, Shogo, etc.) was untradeable. Hence, the Suarez, Gray deals.

While I am no simp for ownership, I also realize the Reds have a finite budget and shouldn't try to mess around too much in the open market against the likes of LA or NY. They can't afford the back end of those deals.

However, they do get a consistent amount from revenue sharing and their cable deal (until now anyways) so they weren't ever going to he running at a loss retaining modest deals to Grey and Suarez for example. A quick look at Forbes estimates confirm this.

And anways, if they couldn't afford to keep a legit ace in his prime with 2 years ~$12 5m /year left on his deal...than that's a problem and they aren't a real big league club.

Heck, imagine last year with Grey and Suarez instead of Weaver and Senzel...playoff city.

[redsfan9988]

While I am no simp for ownership, I also realize the Reds have a finite budget and shouldn't try to mess around too much in the open market against the likes of LA or NY. They can't afford the back end of those deals.

However, they do get a consistent amount from revenue sharing and their cable deal (until now anyways) so they weren't ever going to he running at a loss retaining modest deals to Grey and Suarez for example. A quick look at Forbes estimates confirm this.

And anways, if they couldn't afford to keep a legit ace in his prime with 2 years ~$12 5m /year left on his deal...than that's a problem and they aren't a real big league club.

Heck, imagine last year with Grey and Suarez instead of Weaver and Senzel...playoff city.

It has been a comedy of errors hasn’t it? They dealt everyone they could from the 2021 roster - including players that could have contributed to a 2023 playoff run. Then they added in the 2024 offseason to a team that ultimately lost 85 games.

There are injuries and other extenuating circumstances to consider, but it kind of seems like the FO isn’t super great at evaluating what they actually have. That bodes poorly for this group. Hopefully adding a guy like Francona to the mix can give them some credibility when evaluating their 40-man roster’s fitness to compete in 2025.

[Redeyecat]

https://blogredmachine.com/posts/mut...-agent-mistake

Someone out there agrees with me. Candelario and one or two of Phillips/Aguiar/Ashcraft/Floyd, effectively getting Sonny Gray for 2/30. That’s probably better than what they could sign Martinez for. Cards save $30m and get a replacement for Goldschmidt as well as one or two young arms with upside. Then, for the Reds use any available payflex to sign Anthony Santander and/or trade for Luis Robert.

And keep India to be your insurance policy on Marte/CES not bouncing back, at least until Collier/Stewart are ready.

I think Candy and a good but not great prospect or two for Gray is a great idea to pursue. It would help right two wrongs from last off-season.

[backbencher]

And anways, if they couldn't afford to keep a legit ace in his prime with 2 years ~$12 5m /year left on his deal...than that's a problem and they aren't a real big league club.

Not really the issue. The Reds were overcommitted and had to trade 1-2 of Votto, Moustakas, Suarez, Gray, Shogo, who combined to $71MM in payroll. Guess which ones had takers?

There's definitely a problem, and it was the Reds putting tens of millions of dollars into players that would be out of baseball within 18 months.

Not saying this as a criticism of the Votto deal - there were clear eyes on that one from the start. But those clear eyes had to include the potential for a payroll crunch, even if they did not anticipate a pandemic.

[klw]

My thought with Gray is that whenever I hear his name, I hear the song "When Sunny gets blue" and think that he will become a Dodger. It is not my greatest thought but it has been in my head for about 6 years now.

[JFLegal]

Sonny Gray is a large injury risk IMO. Up there in age. Has pitched a ton of innings last couple years.

[NachoMan]

Not really the issue. The Reds were overcommitted and had to trade 1-2 of Votto, Moustakas, Suarez, Gray, Shogo, who combined to $71MM in payroll. Guess which ones had takers?

There's definitely a problem, and it was the Reds putting tens of millions of dollars into players that would be out of baseball within 18 months.

Not saying this as a criticism of the Votto deal - there were clear eyes on that one from the start. But those clear eyes had to include the potential for a payroll crunch, even if they did not anticipate a pandemic.

How is that not the issue? You just restated the same thing he said and used the word "overcommitted" -- so you're saying that they were at risk of running a loss in 2022?

[Wonderful Monds]

Brilliant post, agree with everything written. Gray in 2023 would have been season-changing and perhaps even franchise-trajectory changing, given the accelerated development of the young players.

But this also leaves out a pretty significant fact: Gray was traded in 2022, not 2023. The Reds carried their largest-ever payroll into 2020, and all of 2019-2022 were comfortably over $110 million. No one cares whether the owners make money, but it is unrealistic to expect owners to finance losses.

The reason the Reds had to trade Gray - and I think it is fair to call it a "had to" - is that much of their other significant money during the 2021-22 window (Votto, Moustakas, Minor, Shogo, etc.) was untradeable. Hence, the Suarez, Gray deals.

[GAC]

he'll be 35, and an injury risk, and he played for the Cardinals.

NO!! IMO. We shouldn't even be thinking this. LOL

[Chip R]

Sonny Gray is a large injury risk IMO. Up there in age. Has pitched a ton of innings last couple years.

You can say this about any pitcher or position player. He's getting older but he's averaged 33 starts a year over his career. The only year he's started less than 20 games was 2020 and that wasn't a full season. The only real negative is that he doesn't go deep into games but not very many do these days. Everything else being equal, who would you rather have in the Reds rotation, Gray or Graham Ashcraft? Gray or Carson Spiers? Gray or Jakob Junis?

[backbencher]

How is that not the issue? You just restated the same thing he said and used the word "overcommitted" -- so you're saying that they were at risk of running a loss in 2022?

Yes, that is what "overcommitted" means. Projected expenses > expected revenues.

Kc's post was terrific and thoughtful, and I fully agree that Gray in '23 likely would have changed the team's trajectory. Really a great "what if," or an especially depressing one.

Unfortunately, and the point of my post, the Reds had no financial plan to get through '22 with their then-current commitments. Maybe could have managed without covid, but '21-'22 was a bad time to be ramping up expenses for a lot of businesses.

[backbencher]

Eloquent, thoughtful, incisive. Good exchange of ideas.