Tyler Stephenson

[Bourgeois Zee]

I'd let someone else lock him up through his mid 30s. I'd let Stephenson play out 2025, reevaluate your catching situation in the minor leagues, and unless its a dumpster fire I'd look at trading Stephenson next offseason.

The catching position is a really, really good bet to be a dumpster fire at this time next off-season.

Were it me, I'd be desperate to add a young, cheap, offensively sound catcher to Stephenson-- or if I can get a really good one, in lieu of Stephenson.

But, IMO, it'll take signing or trading for someone outside of what they have currently in the system.

Duno's going to need PAs and innings. I suspect he repeats in Daytona. (116 total PAs and 180 innings total isn't much at all.) He might, at the halfway point, move up to Dayton if he's killing it, but he'll need a full season this year and next in the minors even if he's dominating. More likely, he's got three years before he sniffs PAs for the Reds. That's 2028. Stephenson will have been a FA a year before that, in 2027.

[JCM11]

Reds have Stephenson for two more years through age 30. I would try to buy out a year or two of his FA years, but I wouldn't go past a 5 year deal through age 33.

[Wayne Krivsky]

What someone else in the thread pointed out is the problem with this: The one catching prospect in the pipeline is only 19 years old. He's not going to be ready for several years, hence the need to consider locking up Stephenson.

Oh I agree completely, but I wouldn't compound the issue by paying Stephenson just because you feel you have to. If he is open to letting the Reds buy out his 1st year of FA I'd be open to something like that, but I woudn't commit to him for longer. It's not like his offensive production is that great at this point, its really just great due to the position he plays, and odds are we start to see him decline after his age 28 season this year. Not that he is going to go from a .780 OPS to a .680 OPS overnight, but I'd rather look at cheaper options than be paying a premium price to witness the decline. We also have to keep in mind that Stephenson did slash just .243/.317/.378 in 500+ PAs in 2023.

To me the Reds need to be focused on how do they maximize the value of the assets, not how do they avoid risks. To me we need to wait and see how 2025 plays out, but paying Stephenson $15-20M per year for multiple seasons into his 30s is a low probability to maximize his value.

[Wayne Krivsky]

The catching position is a really, really good bet to be a dumpster fire at this time next off-season.

Were it me, I'd be desperate to add a young, cheap, offensively sound catcher to Stephenson-- or if I can get a really good one, in lieu of Stephenson.

But, IMO, it'll take signing or trading for someone outside of what they have currently in the system.

Duno's going to need PAs and innings. I suspect he repeats in Daytona. (116 total PAs and 180 innings total isn't much at all.) He might, at the halfway point, move up to Dayton if he's killing it, but he'll need a full season this year and next in the minors even if he's dominating. More likely, he's got three years before he sniffs PAs for the Reds. That's 2028. Stephenson will have been a FA a year before that, in 2027.

Yeah that is for sure the main issue, but I also think the worst thing a franchise like the Reds can do is to overpay someone out of fear of not having a replacement. I'd much rather look for a cheaper/lesser Catcher and put that money saved towards buying out a FA year or two of a younger player, solidifying the bullpen, etc. while possibly getting an A- or B prospect via trade. Not that I think Stephenson goes the full Mike Moustakas route in terms of fall off, but looking at the ups and downs of his last 1000 or so ABs and I do think that type of risk is there as he gets into his 30s.

[Chip R]

Reds have Stephenson for two more years through age 30. I would try to buy out a year or two of his FA years, but I wouldn't go past a 5 year deal through age 33.

Catchers older than 30 are a big risk. Especially ones with the injury history of Stephenson. He's been healthy the last two seasons but even players who aren't catchers are more susceptible to injuries after 30. He may defy the odds but chances are signing him to a deal like that isn't going to end well.

[mth123]

At one time there was talk of Stephenson having so many concussions that he may need to hang it up if he has another. I'm not sure if this crisis has passed or if that is still a thing. Anyone know?

[Mitri]

I would tread very carefully with a TS extension. Try to buy out an extra year of control if possible.

$5MM
$10MM
$15MM

I’d be reluctant to go much beyond that. He’s a solid catcher, great dude. But his bat has never popped off like we had hoped and he’s merely an average defender. It’s great to have that now but how will it look in 4 years?

[RiverfrontRed]

Stephenson is a great clubhouse leader. He showed a lot of improvement with his bat in 2024 too, especially with his power numbers. Lock him up!

[JCM11]

Stephenson appeared in more games than any other C in MLB last year defensively, and had the 3rd highest OPS at the position. The drop off from having him for 120+ games to having to start a couple of Luke Maile types will be substantial. Stephenson's career 105 OPS+ is the same as Salvador Perez' career mark. I think people are underestimating what a good hitting C is worth in today's games. If the Reds can lock Tyler up for 4 or 5 years at close to 10 million AAV they should do it.

[Alpha Zero]

Stephenson appeared in more games than any other C in MLB last year defensively, and had the 3rd highest OPS at the position. The drop off from having him for 120+ games to having to start a couple of Luke Maile types will be substantial. Stephenson's career 105 OPS+ is the same as Salvador Perez' career mark. I think people are underestimating what a good hitting C is worth in today's games. If the Reds can lock Tyler up for 4 or 5 years at close to 10 million AAV they should do it.

Couldn’t agree more. In addition, Stephenson’s .782 OPS is better than what the average DH put up last year. If he gets injured and has to take less reps at catcher later in the contract, he’s still good enough offensively to hold his own as a DH.

[CaiGuy]

I would tread very carefully with a TS extension. Try to buy out an extra year of control if possible.

$5MM
$10MM
$15MM

I’d be reluctant to go much beyond that. He’s a solid catcher, great dude. But his bat has never popped off like we had hoped and he’s merely an average defender. It’s great to have that now but how will it look in 4 years?

Yep, gives me Devon Mesoraco vibes.

I think catcher defense is too valuable, and when a catcher is average defensively at best, the regression won't be pretty. And I don't think his bat plays very well in a corner.

I think if I am playing armchair GM, I would be willing to flip him at some point...assuming returns were very, very good of course.

[Alpha Zero]

People … 35 year old Kyle Higashioka just got 2 guaranteed years at about $7M per year. Never played more than 92 games in a season … a .668 career OPS. Please understand how barren the landscape is at the catcher position. If there’s a spot on the field to assume some financial risk, this is probably it.

Stephenson is one of the best at the position right now. These are the types the Reds should be looking to retain if the cost is not prohibitive. We’re not talking about signing him until he’s 35 or 36 … just until he’s 32 or 33.

[mth123]

People … 35 year old Kyle Higashioka just got 2 guaranteed years at about $7M per year. Never played more than 92 games in a season … a .668 career OPS. Please understand how barren the landscape is at the catcher position. If there’s a spot on the field to assume some financial risk, this is probably it.

Stephenson is one of the best at the position right now. These are the types the Reds should be looking to retain if the cost is not prohibitive. We’re not talking about signing him until he’s 35 or 36 … just until he’s 32 or 33.

I think your point in paragraph one is spot on and it's the reason that you'd never get Stephenson to sign the kinds of contracts that people are throwing around in this thread. If they signed him to the Realmuto contract, they may get a deal done. This stuff about 3 years, $30 Million or 4 years $45 Million probably not going to happen. Maybe if he has an opt-out every year, but they aren't going to lock him up unless the money is a lot bigger than being discusssed here.

[Alpha Zero]

I think your point in paragraph one is spot on and it's the reason that you'd never get Stephenson to sign the kinds of contracts that people are throwing around in this thread. If they signed him to the Realmuto contract, they may get a deal done. This stuff about 3 years, $30 Million or 4 years $45 Million probably not going to happen. Maybe if he has an opt-out every year, but they aren't going to lock him up unless the money is a lot bigger than being discusssed here.

If he was a FA right now, I think he could get $85M+ easily. But he’s not a FA and still has two more trips through arb. I absolutely think a $50ish million guarantee is enticing to a player like him who has a little bit of injury history and hasn’t really made a ton so far in his career.

[JFLegal]

If he was a FA right now, I think he could get $85M+ easily. But he’s not a FA and still has two more trips through arb. I absolutely think a $50ish million guarantee is enticing to a player like him who has a little bit of injury history and hasn’t really made a ton so far in his career.

Yeah, I said 4/48. You said 4/50. We're obviously in the same ballpark.

TySteve might want the security. It's worth a shot.