Projecting The Reds Starting Lineup For 2025

[RedsManRick]

I'm not sure how much weight to put on statcast arm speed for 2B. How often are they prioritizing speed vs. accuracy? It's rarely necessary for a 2B to put a ton on the throw.

For example, in 2023 Mookie Betts averaged 79.3 from 2B, but 88.1 from RF. Looking at other 2B who played the OF as well, they range anywhere from +5 to +10 faster in the OF. +5 leaves you around the same or a little worse positionally, while +10 moves you up.

That said, Lux maxed out just above India among the very lowest for 2B. So it's unlikely he's got a lot of extra in the tank.

[mth123]

Vs RH/vs LH
Freidl CF
Lux LF/Steer LF
EDLC SS
McLain 2B
Stephenson C
Steer DH/Candelario DH
Candelario 3B/Fairchild RF
CES 1B
Fraley RF/Espinal 3B

[CaiGuy]

If I am predicting what the lineup will be sans injuries (not what I would want to do ):

Freidl CF
EDLC 3B
Mclain SS
Candelario 1B
Steer LF
Lux 2B
Stephenson C
CES DH
Fraley RF

---

[Kc61]

If I am predicting what the lineup will be sans injuries (not what I would want to do ):

Freidl CF
EDLC 3B
Mclain SS
Candelario 1B
Steer LF
Lux 2B
Stephenson C
CES DH
Fraley RF

---

If this is a projected batting order, I don’t see Stephenson hitting seventh. Too low down. I see him fifth in this lineup. Also see the cleanup spot insufficient, but that’s probably for another thread.

I get what you did defensively, could well be accurate.

[Mitri]

I was going through this last night in my head so I'll contribute:

Lux
McLain
ELDC
Stephenson
Candelario
Steer
Fraley
CES
Friedl

[Alpha Zero]

Which is why he should play 2B.

I’m still not sure if you fully understand what Statcast is showing. For a good example, go look at Gleyber Torres in 2021 and then flip to 2022. His arm strength goes from 70th percentile to 17th percentile. It dipped so much because he played a good amount of SS in 2021 and played almost exclusively at 2B in 2022. He didn’t make enough true “max effort” throws from the 2B position for Savant to accurately capture his arm strength.

Again, this doesn’t mean that Lux has a good arm. All I’m saying is that the number is somewhat meaningless when the player plays almost exclusively at a position where max effort throws are rarely required.

[Ron Madden]

From Charlie Goldsmith

I’ve been looking for ways to get McLain into the leadoff spot. He works polished, consistent at-bats, and he was the Reds’ most reliable hitter in 2023. He’s fast, and he’s a good guy to have ahead of De La Cruz on the base paths. Strikeouts are a part of McLain’s game, but he’s a strong right-handed bat who can dissuade teams from bringing in a left-hander for the top of the order.
You want McLain getting more at-bats than any Reds player aside from De La Cruz, and the leadoff spot helps accomplish that goal.

I go back-and-forth between a top of the order that has TJ Friedl-McLain-De La Cruz and one that’s McLain-De La Cruz-Steer. This debate will probably get sorted out in the spring based on how dynamic Friedl looks at the plate coming off of an injury-riddled season.

Friedl was an ideal leadoff hitter in 2023. He had standout chase rates and whiff rates, took his walks, worked very quality at-bats and showed some pop. Last year, limited due to some injuries that wore him down, Friedl started selling out for some more pull power.He started to get his speed back in September. Where he’s at will be one of the stories of the spring and will go a long way in determining the structure of the lineup (he’ll be the center fielder regardless).

Several Reds see Steer as a potential multi-time All-Star and one of the most underrated young players in baseball, and Francona is high on him as a player. Steer has 30-home run power, but he never sells out for it. He’s great against left-handed pitching, and he can punish teams that bring in a left-hander to face De La Cruz.
So that’s McLain-De La Cruz-Steer so far.

https://charlieschalkboard.substack....tarting-lineup

[Kingspoint]

I’m still not sure if you fully understand what Statcast is showing. For a good example, go look at Gleyber Torres in 2021 and then flip to 2022. His arm strength goes from 70th percentile to 17th percentile. It dipped so much because he played a good amount of SS in 2021 and played almost exclusively at 2B in 2022. He didn’t make enough true “max effort” throws from the 2B position for Savant to accurately capture his arm strength.

Again, this doesn’t mean that Lux has a good arm. All I’m saying is that the number is somewhat meaningless when the player plays almost exclusively at a position where max effort throws are rarely required.

In 2024, 99% of his games were at 2B. His arm was rated in the 7th-Percentile.
In 2023, he didn't play.
In 2022, 73% of his games were at 2B. His arm was rated in the 8th-Percentile.
In 2021, 26% of his games were at 2B. His arm was rated in the 17th-Percentile.
In 2020, 100% of his games were at 2B. His arm was rated in the 12th-Percentile.

So, it doesn't seem to matter where he played, SS, LF, CF, RF, 3B, or 2B. His arm was rated extremely weak at all locations. It looks like his "ceiling" is still 17th-percentile when 74% of his games were played somewhere other than 2B, which was the reasoning stated all along. Having such an extremely weak arm at 2B doesn't translate for Gavin Lux to have anything other than a very weak arm no matter where he plays.

[Kingspoint]

From Charlie Goldsmith
Several Reds see Steer as a potential multi-time All-Star and one of the most underrated young players in baseball, and Francona is high on him as a player. Steer has 30-home run power, but he never sells out for it. He’s great against left-handed pitching, and he can punish teams that bring in a left-hander to face De La Cruz.

Glad to see that he and Francona agree with me. It's as if he read my posts about Steer.

[Alpha Zero]

In 2024, 99% of his games were at 2B. His arm was rated in the 7th-Percentile.
In 2023, he didn't play.
In 2022, 73% of his games were at 2B. His arm was rated in the 8th-Percentile.
In 2021, 26% of his games were at 2B. His arm was rated in the 17th-Percentile.
In 2020, 100% of his games were at 2B. His arm was rated in the 12th-Percentile.

So, it doesn't seem to matter where he played, SS, LF, CF, RF, 3B, or 2B. His arm was rated extremely weak at all locations. It looks like his "ceiling" is still 17th-percentile when 74% of his games were played somewhere other than 2B, which was the reasoning stated all along. Having such an extremely weak arm at 2B doesn't translate for Gavin Lux to have anything other than a very weak arm no matter where he plays.

You’re probably right that Lux’s arm is not great based on the 2021 data. My main point was that the rest of the data (2020, 2022-2024) is effectively useless and shouldn’t be used when evaluating his true arm strength because players so rarely make max effort throws from that spot.

[LeatherPants]

You’re probably right that Lux’s arm is not great based on the 2021 data. My main point was that the rest of the data (2020, 2022-2024) is effectively useless and shouldn’t be used when evaluating his true arm strength because players so rarely make max effort throws from that spot.

Except he's bad even for 2B. 61 of 72 (with 100+ attempts)

[Alpha Zero]

Except he's bad even for 2B. 61 of 72 (with 100+ attempts)

But the stat barely means anything even in the context of 2B vs 2B. I’ll go back to the Gleyber Torres example. In 2021, he was 75.9mph from 2B and 86.7mph from SS. The stat works well for most any other position, but it is wonky for guys that play nearly the whole season at 2B. That’s my only point. I am not defending Lux and agree that his arm is not great. All I’m saying is the 7th percentile number that is being thrown around is not representative of reality. The 17th percentile number probably is. Not much difference, I know.

[Kingspoint]

But the stat barely means anything even in the context of 2B vs 2B. I’ll go back to the Gleyber Torres example. In 2021, he was 75.9mph from 2B and 86.7mph from SS. The stat works well for most any other position, but it is wonky for guys that play nearly the whole season at 2B. That’s my only point. I am not defending Lux and agree that his arm is not great. All I’m saying is the 7th percentile number that is being thrown around is not representative of reality. The 17th percentile number probably is. Not much difference, I know.

I'm not concerned about his arm strength at 2B. I don't think that's an issue or prevents him from being an above average Defender at 2B, which I think a healthy version of him is. We need his bat in the lineup vs RHP's, so he's playing somewhere.