WHAT???Originally Posted by westofyou
Browning won 20 games with a 3.55ERA as a rookie in '85 and had an ERA of 3.81 or under in 5 of his first 6 seasons.
I must be reading the wrong resume for Milton.
WHAT???
Browning won 20 games with a 3.55ERA as a rookie in '85 and had an ERA of 3.81 or under in 5 of his first 6 seasons.
I must be reading the wrong resume for Milton.
Jimmy Haynes (circa 2002) is proof enough that a pitcher should NEVER be judged based on the amount of wins he racked up in a given season while ignoring all the other stats that tell you he's a bad pitcher.
RLA, not to pick on you because I'm wrong as much as anyone, but weren't you the one who was very optimistic about the rotation going into 2003 because we had assembled a 'team of winners'?
It isn't that far-fetched. Pitchers generally will have a career season much better than their norms. Just hope he does it in either 05 or 06 and then maybe he will opt out of 07.
I know, that was just message board sarcasm.
However, if he does it in 2005 I would not expect a repeat in 2006. Gully will get him straightened out, turn him into another Pete Schourek he will.
Its hard to compare Browning and Milton because Browning in 1985 didnt pitch the Bandboxes that we have now. If Browning had pitched in Coors field, citizens park, and had his home games played in GABP who know how many Home runs he would have given up. I would take Browning or a guy like Browning (Milton) every day of the week and twice on sundays because he is going to keep you in games and pitch innings. Regaurdless of what anyone thinks Milton will be fine and win atleast 14 to 16 games every year he is healthy he seems to do it.
I heard Milton did sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
Ricardo,
Compare Browning and Milton vs. their respective league-average ERA, and it's a very close comparison. (Remember, in the 80's when Browning pitched, a 3.50+ ERA was considered mediocre--not bad, but not especially good, either.)
ERAs across the board have gone up in the offense-happy post-1994-strike era (no pun intended).
Code:ERIC MILTON AGE <= 30 YEAR TEAM AGE W L PCT G GS CG SV GF IP H R ER BB SO ERA RSAA 1998 Twins 22 8 14 .364 32 32 1 0 0 172.1 195 113 108 70 107 5.64 -19 1999 Twins 23 7 11 .389 34 34 4 0 0 206.1 190 111 103 63 163 4.49 16 2000 Twins 24 13 10 .565 33 33 0 0 0 200 205 123 108 44 160 4.86 10 2001 Twins 25 15 7 .682 35 34 2 0 0 220.2 222 109 106 61 157 4.32 5 2002 Twins 26 13 9 .591 29 29 2 0 0 171 173 96 92 30 121 4.84 -9 2003 Twins 27 1 0 1.000 3 3 0 0 0 17 15 5 5 1 7 2.65 4 2004 Phillies 28 14 6 .700 34 34 0 0 0 201 196 110 106 75 161 4.75 -9 TOTALS 71 57 .555 200 199 9 0 0 1188.1 1196 667 628 344 876 4.76 -2 LG AVERAGE 67 67 .500 9 0 1188.1 1240 664 610 457 844 4.62 0 YEAR TEAM HR H/9 BR/9 SO/9 BB/9 SO/BB SHO WP IBB HBP BFP BK NW NL 1998 Twins 25 10.18 13.94 5.59 3.66 1.53 0 1 0 2 772 0 9 13 1999 Twins 28 8.29 11.17 7.11 2.75 2.59 2 2 2 3 858 0 10 8 2000 Twins 35 9.23 11.52 7.20 1.98 3.64 0 5 0 7 849 0 12 11 2001 Twins 35 9.05 11.75 6.40 2.49 2.57 1 2 0 5 944 0 11 11 2002 Twins 24 9.11 10.84 6.37 1.58 4.03 1 4 0 3 707 0 10 12 2003 Twins 2 7.94 8.47 3.71 0.53 7.00 0 0 0 0 66 0 1 0 2004 Phillies 43 8.78 12.18 7.21 3.36 2.15 0 3 6 1 862 0 9 11 TOTALS 192 9.06 11.82 6.63 2.61 2.55 4 17 8 21 5058 0 62 66 LG AVERAGE 150 9.39 13.21 6.39 3.46 1.85 2 43 31 48 5184 4 AGE <= 30 YEAR TEAM AGE W L PCT G GS CG SV GF IP H R ER BB SO ERA RSAA 1984 Reds 24 1 0 1.000 3 3 0 0 0 23.1 27 4 4 5 14 1.54 6 1985 Reds 25 20 9 .690 38 38 6 0 0 261.1 242 111 103 73 155 3.55 6 1986 Reds 26 14 13 .519 39 39 4 0 0 243.1 225 123 103 70 147 3.81 3 1987 Reds 27 10 13 .435 32 31 2 0 1 183 201 107 102 61 117 5.02 -16 1988 Reds 28 18 5 .783 36 36 5 0 0 250.2 205 98 95 64 124 3.41 6 1989 Reds 29 15 12 .556 37 37 9 0 0 249.2 241 109 94 64 118 3.39 8 1990 Reds 30 15 9 .625 35 35 2 0 0 227.2 235 98 96 52 99 3.80 0 TOTALS 93 61 .604 220 219 28 0 1 1439 1376 650 597 389 774 3.73 13 LG AVERAGE 80 80 .500 26 0 1439 1370 658 587 518 925 3.67 0 YEAR TEAM HR H/9 BR/9 SO/9 BB/9 SO/BB SHO WP IBB HBP BFP BK NW NL 1984 Reds 0 10.41 12.34 5.40 1.93 2.80 0 1 0 0 95 0 1 0 1985 Reds 29 8.33 10.95 5.34 2.51 2.12 4 2 8 3 1083 0 15 14 1986 Reds 26 8.32 10.95 5.44 2.59 2.10 2 3 6 1 1016 0 14 13 1987 Reds 27 9.89 13.13 5.75 3.00 1.92 0 2 7 5 791 4 10 13 1988 Reds 36 7.36 9.91 4.45 2.30 1.94 2 2 3 7 1001 4 12 11 1989 Reds 31 8.69 11.10 4.25 2.31 1.84 2 2 10 3 1031 1 14 13 1990 Reds 24 9.29 11.54 3.91 2.06 1.90 1 5 13 5 957 1 12 12 TOTALS 173 8.61 11.19 4.84 2.43 1.99 11 17 47 24 5974 10 78 76 LG AVERAGE 121 8.57 11.98 5.79 3.24 1.79 7 46 66 27 6090 18
For pitchers who have pitched at least 1000 innings Eric Milton has the 30th best K/9 rate for LH pitchers in the history of baseball, smack between Guidry and Tug McGraw.
RSAA
Milton -2
Browning +13
The problem with Milton is that BPIs have alway said that he is a better pitcher than the ERA.
Haynes won 15 games that year because he pitched well.
He bombed afterwards because of injuries and bad pitching.
Milton has always won alot of games.
There's no valid comparison between Milton and Haynes.
And wade Miller is a huge injury risk. There's no evidence he will pitch much this year.
my summation of the Milton signing
Did the Reds overpay? Probably so.
Did the othe FA starters get overpaid? Probably so.
Will Milton earn his $8M+ salary in 2005? Probably not.
WIll Milton improve the staff over 2004? Probably so.
Could the Reds have found a better way to spend it in 05? Probably not.
The only thing that bothers about the Milton deal is the out years in 06-07. If this doesn't work and attendance drops they could up trading away their young stars(Dunn adn Kearns I believe) because they don't want to pay them. That's what scares me about the Milton contract. I hope he pitches well in 05 and the Reds are competetive and that they can still afford to pay their young guys. I think 5 years from now baseball will be talking about how good Dunn and Kearns have been, I hope they are still Reds so we can get maximum enjoyment from that.
Pretty well sums up my feelings. Other name FA's weren't going to come here, so might as well roll the dice and see what Milton can do for a couple seasons.
Championships for MY teams in my lifetime:
Cincinnati Reds - 75, 76, 90
Chicago Blackhawks - 10, 13, 15
University of Kentucky - 78, 96, 98, 12
Chicago Bulls - 91, 92, 93, 96, 97, 98
“Everything that happens before Death is what counts.”
― Ray Bradbury, Something Wicked This Way Comes
No he did not. His 2002 BPIs said he was the same pitcher that lost 17 games the year before with the Brewers. His half run lower ERA and 15 wins was nothing but good fortune. The Jimmy Haynes of 2002 was essentially the same pitcher as the 2001 pitcher., the only difference was a .5 per 9 ininng drop in his BB rate. The fact that the Reds were ignorant of that caused them to offer him an ill advised 2 year deal.
No Boss, I was all fired up because the Reds had assembled a rotation full of 200 innings guys.
I simply remember many of us on the old board giving some of our Seattle fans grief because they went out and signed a couple of pitchers who had had 5 plus era's and they thought they were going to be really good.
Well, I think Seattle won their division that year.
I am also a bit perturbed because around here, no guy the Reds get seems to be good enough. If they aren't Johnson or Clemens they have too high of a WHIP or they walk too many guys or they give up too many HR's.
I am not saying this group will lead the league in ERA, or innings pitched per start or anything else. I am just saying that in today's game, a 4.5 ERA or even higher, with a potent offense behind it CAN be competitive.....and since I am sssssooooooo tired of sitting here every February already knowing the Reds are gonna stink, I am going to use a 60 plus mill payroll as an excuse to delude myself into thinking they might just be good....maybe even really good.
If I am nuts, it will be proven soon enough.
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