Bengals v. Vikings

[Patrick Bateman]

The issue is how good is Culpepper? As of the 5th game of the year some folks were saying he was one of the best in the league. I argued, no he was one of the best but he's not any longer. Now we see they had a hard time finding any team to even take him. It tells me that the league agrees with me and they saw the same things I saw when I made those comments in October.

No it doesn't. The league does not agree with you. Things have changed since October. His value has actually decreased because of many factors (ie. continued poor play, injuries, and demanding of the trade).

I know you don't agree with me, but his value has changed dramatically. After the 5 games or whatever, I am willing to bet that many teams would have been willing to give him an opprtunity to improve, but after the difficulties he had after a full season his value decreased dramaticallly from before, since his chances of reverting back to career norms had decreased dramatically.

[Sea Ray]

No it doesn't. The league does not agree with you. Things have changed since October. His value has actually decreased because of many factors (ie. continued poor play, injuries, and demanding of the trade).

I know you don't agree with me, but his value has changed dramatically. After the 5 games or whatever, I am willing to bet that many teams would have been willing to give him an opprtunity to improve, but after the difficulties he had after a full season his value decreased dramaticallly from before, since his chances of reverting back to career norms had decreased dramatically.

If you are correct then the rest of the league was slow to come around to my way of thinking. I don't think I'm that much smarter or more forward thinking than the rest of the league but maybe you are right...

[Sabo Fan]

The issue is how good is Culpepper? As of the 5th game of the year some folks were saying he was one of the best in the league. I argued, no he was one of the best but he's not any longer. Now we see they had a hard time finding any team to even take him. It tells me that the league agrees with me and they saw the same things I saw when I made those comments in October.

You are still somehow managing to miss the point completely. The league agrees with you, do they? Well good to know, I guess now we can just go straight to you for all our football questions and you'll no doubt have the answers months ahead of time. Injuries, trades, team sales, play-calling, you've got it all figured out I'm sure. It's amazing, your arguments get flat-out shot down with actual facts, yet you still find a way to pat yourself on the back. That's a championship-caliber ego you have there.

Why did the Vikings have a hard time finding a suitor for Culpepper? You claim it's because of the things you saw in October: lack of accuracy, supposed struggles due to the loss of Moss, poor decision-making, etc. Surely the lack of interest in him had nothing to do with the fact that he ripped apart his entire knee, engaged in some questionable off the field behavior (though all he really did was receive a lap-dance, which to my knowledge isn't illegal, but that's another issue) and had a rash of what can only be described as mystifying behavior after the seaon ended (agent firing, representing himself, trade demand, etc.). Undoubtedly it was all about the things you saw in that Bengals-Vikings game in October. I wish you would have said something about seeing that injury ahead of time, maybe he could have been warned.

I mean really, no team in it's right mind would look at his previous performance and say that the guy just had a bad couple games, woud they? 2004 was surely just an abberation, just like all his other stellar seasons. No doubt the Daunte Culpepper that we saw in the first five or six games of the season was the true Daunte Culpepper (we'll just throw out the games he played well in last season though, like New Orleans and Green Bay, (and I'd argue that the opener against Tampa Bay wasn't all that bad, he just got some unlucky bounces and was forced into a corner) because obviously those were completely out of character for him).

I'm curious to know if you saw this so-called "drop-off" in Culpepper's performance coming prior to the start of the 2005 season. What were your thoughts on him after last season? I'm sure that since you have this amazing ability to see into the future you no doubt were right on top of the situation and saw this poor year coming as soon as the Vikings ended their 2004 season in Philadelphia. You were probably undaunted in your skepticism after seeing his 41 touchdown season, as well as scoffing at that 70% completion percentage and knowing that he would implode and was finished as a quarterback.

Fair enough. Let's play your hypothetical. If four years from now your scenario takes place, I will not argue that Carson Palmer is still great. I will say he's a has been and I appreciate his past work. I said similar things in the early 90s regarding Boomer Esiason and I was glad they drafted his replacement, Klingler although unfortunately they had no idea how to groom a young QB.

Man, you're harsh. 28 year-old QB's with a history of Pro-Bowl caliber performances don't just completely fall off the face of the planet ability-wise over the course of a few months, or at least one doesn't jump to mind. Sure football players have a short shelf life, but without looking at any data, I would guess that the typical age for significant drop off would be in the 32-34 age range. Sure there is a certain level of attrition once a player reaches 30, but they're usually able to perform at a pretty high level after that. You seem to want to give up on guys at the drop of a hat

The point I was making was that Palmer may have to deal with circumstances that are beyond his control at some point in his career and I was curious to see if you would be ready to drop him as quickly as you claim you would have dropped Culpepper. Sounds like you would, so therefore I think your problem lies not in how you evaluate Carson Palmer, but how you evaluate players (maybe it's just quarterbacks) in general. I for one would jump at the chance to aquire a guy of Palmer's or Culpepper's ilk for a discounted price, injuries and a poor 1/3 of a season be damned. I think the Dolphins got one heck of a quarterback for probably about three more seasons (assuming the rehab proceeds normally) and I woud say the same thing about Palmer were he in a similar situation.

Oh, and as a fun sidenote, there was no amount of coaching, player development, or act of God that would have made David Klingler an acceptable replacement for any QB, let alone Boomer Esiason. The guy had no business being thought of as a future franchise quarterback. He and Tim Couch are pretty much the same guy, both from the stats-friendly, value-boosting run-and-shoot offense at schools in which they went up against less than stellar competition. I don't care how many football people liked the guy, it was obvious to me that Klingler and Couch were both unworthy of the expectations that were heaped upon them. Sure the Bengals were poor at player development in those days, but a guy has to have a certain skill level to even bother with, and as far as franchise QB's go, Klingler wasn't.

[MWM]

Plenty of people could see clear in September that Carson Palmer was a better QB than Daunte ever was. It's not hindsight. I wouldn't have trade Palmer for Daunte straight-up before the season (regardless of money) and I certainly wouldn't do it now. If both fully recover from their injuries, Palmer will be a superior QB to Daunte in every way. He's just better. Carson (assuming health) is THAT good.

[Patrick Bateman]

Plenty of people could see clear in September that Carson Palmer was a better QB than Daunte ever was. It's not hindsight. I wouldn't have trade Palmer for Daunte straight-up before the season (regardless of money) and I certainly wouldn't do it now. If both fully recover from their injuries, Palmer will be a superior QB to Daunte in every way. He's just better. Carson (assuming health) is THAT good.

I don't think Sabo Fan and I are really denying that, but still Culpepper's value has declined considerably since his 5 game slump in September since everything continued to go wrong for the guy. It went from a slump to his new norm.

Simply put, the trade that just went down does not give a true reflection of his value at the time the comments were made.

[Sea Ray]

I don't think Sabo Fan and I are really denying that, but still Culpepper's value has declined considerably since his 5 game slump in September since everything continued to go wrong for the guy. It went from a slump to his new norm.

Simply put, the trade that just went down does not give a true reflection of his value at the time the comments were made.

Folks in October were denying that. The issue which was argued at the time was "would you trade Culpepper for Palmer?" I pasted comments earlier in this thread. If you and SaboFan say that Culpepper is not worth Carson Palmer then we don't have any issues.

[Sea Ray]

I'm curious to know if you saw this so-called "drop-off" in Culpepper's performance coming prior to the start of the 2005 season. What were your thoughts on him after last season? I'm sure that since you have this amazing ability to see into the future you no doubt were right on top of the situation and saw this poor year coming as soon as the Vikings ended their 2004 season in Philadelphia. You were probably undaunted in your skepticism after seeing his 41 touchdown season, as well as scoffing at that 70% completion percentage and knowing that he would implode and was finished as a quarterback.

I made my evaluation after the Bengals/Vikings game and the games leading up to the Bengals game. I did not think he was that bad as of say July 2005. He was playing horribly in 2005 and in fact after he got hurt the offense performed better with his backup in there...not great for his resume.
So no I did not see the dropoff until I saw him play in 2005.

[Patrick Bateman]

Folks in October were denying that. The issue which was argued at the time was "would you trade Culpepper for Palmer?" I pasted comments earlier in this thread. If you and SaboFan say that Culpepper is not worth Carson Palmer then we don't have any issues.

Culpepper was not and still is not worth Palmer. We can both agree on that 100%.

My only argument is that Culpepper's value was more than a 2nd round pick at the beginning of the year, thus the trade that went down is not really a great indicator of his value at the time of the debate.

[Sea Ray]

Culpepper was not and still is not worth Palmer. We can both agree on that 100%.

My only argument is that Culpepper's value was more than a 2nd round pick at the beginning of the year, thus the trade that went down is not really a great indicator of his value at the time of the debate.

The debate didn't take place at the beginning of the year. It took place 5 games into it after he looked horrible.

But you and I have no disagreement. I agree with everything you wrote above. It just amazed me the folks who thought Culpepper had more value than Palmer as of mid October 2005.

[Sabo Fan]

I made my evaluation after the Bengals/Vikings game and the games leading up to the Bengals game. I did not think he was that bad as of say July 2005. He was playing horribly in 2005 and in fact after he got hurt the offense performed better with his backup in there...not great for his resume.
So no I did not see the dropoff until I saw him play in 2005.

So based on two games at the begining of the season, you were able to write off the rest of the guy's career? The games leading up to the Bengals game? Try one game, the opener against Tampa Bay. Did you actually watch that game, or did you just see the interception he threw in the last minute and assume he had a bad game? I watched that game from start to finish and can tell you that it was not that bad, but unfortunately the referees overruled two touchdown passes on two bogus calls and one of the interceptions was a tipped pass that should have been caught by a wide receiver. Sure he was looking downfield too much, but there isn't anything that would lead me to believe that wasn't the game plan going in. Not to mention the offensive line play was less than stellar.

The team performed better after his injury and that's an endictment of Culpepper's performance. Tell you what, there is no quarterback who could have done much better in those first five games in the same situation. And of those five games actually played well in two, but no one wants to talk about that. The fact of the matter is that by the time Johnson took over the offensive line had solidified again and the defense was much better so they didn't have to play catch up constantly and Johnson did a good job of managing games. That's not a knock against Culpepper, it's just a simple matter of evaluating the circumstances.

Plenty of people could see clear in September that Carson Palmer was a better QB than Daunte ever was. It's not hindsight. I wouldn't have traded Palmer for Daunte straight-up before the season (regardless of money) and I certainly wouldn't do it now. If both fully recover from their injuries, Palmer will be a superior QB to Daunte in every way. He's just better. Carson (assuming health) is THAT good.

And on what would you base that Palmer was clearly the better QB based on past performance? Superior in every way? Very doubtful, unless Palmer bulks up and starts shrugging off blitzing linebackers. I really can't understand how some people can say that Palmer was the far superior quarterback when looking at their 2004 seasons. Culpepper had a historic year and was entering his prime at the age of 28. Palmer had just completed his first year of starting and had a pretty solid year, but nothing earth shattering. His 2005 season certainly showed great progress, but I wonder if there is another level to his play or if he's peaked. Obviously that's a good peak, but do we put him up there with the Elways, Youngs, Marinos, etc? Most here seem to think so based on their comments, but I think I'll let you all attend the crowning ceremony and catch up later.

Look, I think Carson Palmer is one heck of a quarterback. He'll be in his fare share of Pro Bowls, put up some real good numbers and will get some MVP talk from time to time. But I wonder if Palmer is thought to walk on water because he's that good or are Bengals fans just so starved for a good quarterback that as soon as a guy has one good season they'll deem him the second coming? So far I'm having a hard time deciding. Seems like anytime anyone brings up the fact that Palmer may not be the greatest quarterback in the history of football you get tons of people telling you how wonderful he is and why he's great. It's not just here, I hear it all the time when I talk football with my Bengal fan friends. I really hope this Palmer-love doesn't reach the Brett Favre level, because that would be a shame, but it wouldn't surprise me. From where I stand, I don't even know if you can say that Palmer is the best quarterback in his division. I'm sure that'll send the Palmerites into a frenzy and I'll be called crazy by some, but so far I can't see any reason to elevate Carson Palmer way above every other quarterback like some seem to.

[Sea Ray]

So based on two games at the begining of the season, you were able to write off the rest of the guy's career?

Don't get carried away. I'm not writing off his career at all. I merely think Carson Palmer is a better QB. That's all.

[Betterread]

Well now we know Daunte's value and it isn't even a first rd pick. The Dolphins set his value at a 2nd rd pick. We've also seen how much money the Bengals think Carson Palmer is worth. So yeah, no way would the Bengals trade Palmer for Culpepper. Heck the Bengals could have traded a 2nd rd pick for him like the Dolphins did.

It's ludicrous to even infer that Culpepper has a value in the ballpark as Carson Palmer

(I just read this thread because I have not been on Redszone for a while to attend to a family emergency.)
I have modified my perspective from that time to the present regarding a comparison between Carson Palmer and Culpepper. Palmer had a great year that resulted in the Bengals making the playoffs, while Culpepper had an awful year resulting in being indicted for an ugly misdemenaor. Many things have happened to alter my view of Culpepper since I defended him, and that includes many character issues that have come up regarding Culpepper.
Having said that, I don't know if a 2nd round pick was "value" for Daunte, as the team more or less had to trade him because he didn't want to play for them any longer and they didn't want to continue to pay him 60 million or so, for a variety of reasons. So, as a Vikings fan, I'm glad we got something for him (although given the recent lack of success the VIkings have had with 2nd round picks - we may end up with nothing.)
I hope Carson Palmer recovers from his serious knee injury and plays well enough to fulfill the high expectations you have of him.

Here's an article by John Clayton that sums up some aspect of the Culpepper situation.

Minnesota didn't get value for Moss or CulpepperBy John Clayton
ESPN.com
Archive

What are the Vikings thinking?

Two years ago, they were a trendy Super Bowl pick. They had Randy Moss at wide receiver and Daunte Culpepper at quarterback. Following the 2004 season, both players were 28-years-old and in their prime. Moss was the league's ultimate playmaker, a receiver almost impossible to overthrow and known for making the impossible catch, especially in the red zone.

Culpepper was a freak. The league's biggest starting quarterback at 268 pounds, Culpepper was a load for smaller opposing linebackers to bring down. Plus, he had the speed and moves to run like a halfback. On top of all that, he had a rocket arm and could average 30 touchdowns a year.

Vikings fans slept well at night knowing both Moss and Culpepper were under contract into their thirties. Moss was signed through 2008; Culpepper was signed through 2012.

So what are the Vikings thinking giving up both players within a year for wide receiver Troy Williamson, linebacker Napoleon Harris and a second-round pick in 2006? New owner Zygi Wilf wasn't part of the Moss trade. That was from the Red McCombs era.

The organization decided there were too many incidents involving Moss that were distractions. So the Vikings shopped him in a trade, didn't wait to get value and ended up getting the seventh pick in the draft and Harris, who ended up playing only 25 percent of the downs.

They drafted Williamson with that No. 7 pick last year. He is a fast deep threat, but he played in only 29 percent of the offensive downs last season. Harris' days in Minnesota are probably numbered, because the Vikings spent $4 million a year to get outside linebacker Ben Leber out of San Diego. Plus, Harris is in the final year of his contract.

Championship teams are built around five key positions -- quarterbacks, receivers, cornerbacks, tackles and defensive ends who are playmakers. The Vikings ended up giving up 40 percent of those cornerstone positions for Williamson, who is a fast prospect but caught only 24 passes for 372 yards in 2005, and whatever they get in the second round this year.

What are the Vikings thinking?

Thanks to good cap management, though, the Vikings have the salary space to bring in top players. Williamson might develop into a big-play threat. They hit gold with Koren Robinson, whom they re-signed after his amazing comeback season from alcohol problems (Robinson made the Pro Bowl in 2005 as a return man.)

The organization apparently didn't like Culpepper's contract demands this offseason. Moreover, he didn't hit it off with new head coach Brad Childress by not working out at the team facility. Culpepper preferred to train in Florida. New coaches want their quarterbacks in town.

The Dolphins were so determined to find a potential franchise quarterback that they were willing to give up a second-round pick to get Culpepper sight unseen, even though he had a knee reconstruction last fall. Top quarterbacks are hard to find, which is why it's so curious that the Vikings would give up Culpepper so cheaply.

Back in the Dennis Green days, the Vikings made trips to the playoffs each year, even though Green went through a long list of veteran quarterbacks in the later stages of their careers. Although that strategy might get you to the playoffs, it's hard to win a Super Bowl with what you might consider transitional quarterbacks.

Culpepper, when healthy, has the ability to win a Super Bowl. It's interesting that he's going to the Dolphins, a team, like the Vikings, that had nine wins in 2006. Miami head coach Nick Saban felt he got the most he could out of the aging Gus Frerotte.

The Dolphins juggled whether to trade for Culpepper or sign Drew Brees. Both had problems. Brees had shoulder surgery. Culpepper had a major knee surgery.

But look at the impact of what a quarterback can do.

Carson Palmer put the Bengals on the playoff map in Cincinnati. Fortunately, he went to a franchise that had a coach, Marvin Lewis, who knew what to do with such a commodity. He sat him for a year and let him blossom into a Pro Bowl quarterback.

If Palmer comes back from his knee injury, the Bengals, like the Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger, will be Super Bowl contenders every year. The Patriots won three Super Bowls with their franchise quarterback, Tom Brady.

Part of the Vikings' problem was the transition from McCombs to Wilf. They traded Moss, and McComb didn't give former head coach Mike Tice enough money to keep offensive coordinator Scott Linehan (now the Rams' head coach). The one-two impact of losing Moss and Linehan, plus poor blocking in the middle of the line, led to Culpepper having his worst season in five years.

For the Dolphins, Culpepper can pay huge dividends if he's healthy. The Vikings, with Childress as the coach, should make a playoff run with Brad Johnson, but they will be in the market for a franchise quarterback for the next few years.

The Vikings can only hope they can be as successful as the Seattle Mariners were when they went through a period in which they lost Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez.

The Mariners won games but no championships after Griffey and Rodriguez left. It's hard to replace franchise players, and the Vikings hardly got value. What are they thinking?

John Clayton is a senior writer for ESPN.co

[Sea Ray]

Very good article by Clayton. I think he is on the money in his assessment. Thanks for posting it!