Reds vs Astros 7/26 -- EE and Ross back in the lineup

[Matt700wlw]

It might be a bit much. But the bottom line is, Krivsky in no way maximized his return.

Yes, Kearns and Lopez are going to get a raise, but it doesn't justify trading guys with their value for what we got back, which, in terms of production at the MLB level has been a negligible help to the Reds so far (Bray has been good, but as good as Bray has been, Majewski's been just as bad, if not worse). I don't see Majewski or Bray getting much better than their current numbers, which are just okay. So, I fail to see how this trade makes the Reds better now or really much better in the future.

Time will tell. Time will tell.

[westofyou]

Really? He's cheap. And he has a chance to get better. I don't feel the same way about Kearns.

Cheap?

Chris Denorfia is cheap, Lopez is already on the way to being more expensive then Kearns, plus there is teh power issues... 16 of his HR's last year were at the GAB, can he duplicate that as a "cheap Lf" in DC?

He'd sure be under the league average for NL Lf's

.277/.361/.478

[Ltlabner]

Really? He's cheap. And he has a chance to get better.

I don't see Majewski or Bray getting much better than their current numbers, which are just okay.

FCB, assuming the first quote is refereing to Lopez (but it applies to Kearns also), why is it that Lopez and Kearns "have a chance" to improve but Bray and Majic do not? Forget whatever you think their current tallent level is, why is the one group desitined to improve while the other is doomed to failure?

[Falls City Beer]

FCB, assuming the first quote is refereing to Lopez (but it applies to Kearns also), why is it that Lopez and Kearns "have a chance" to improve but Bray and Majic do not? Forget whatever you think their current tallent level is, why is the one group desitined to improve while the other is doomed to failure?

I guess Bray could get better and Lopez may not; but even if nothing changes and each player in the deal continues his career path as is, it's still a net loss for the Reds in run production.

Relievers have very, very short shelf-lives, as well. You should never expect to get more than 5 good years out of a decent reliever. And Majewski's been ridden hard in his career so far; don't see that arm holding up or suddenly magically getting better. In general, the likelihood that Lopez gets better is better than either Bray or Majewski getting better; it's just the nature of the beast.

[Ltlabner]

Relievers have very, very short shelf-lives, as well. You should never expect to get more than 5 good years out of a decent reliever. And Majewski's been ridden hard in his career so far; don't see that arm holding up or suddenly magically getting better. In general, the likelihood that Lopez gets better is better than either Bray or Majewski getting better; it's just the nature of the beast.

Fair enough, that makes sense.

Playing the hypothetical, let's say Lopez does continue to be a so-so to decent hitter and horrible fielder. And Majic continues to be a mediocre bullpen guy. I guess I don't really see much of a loss there. People mention Lopez's projections, yet if you projected Lopez in 2005, his one solid year, he should be far, far ahead of where he is now. So you trade a mediocre SS for a mediocre bullpen arm. Again, I don't see the loss. Sadly, a medicore bullpen arm represents a significant improvment over the so-called bullpen pre-trade.

Kearns is a different matter. His work ethic issues asside, he's got far more tallent than Lopez, IMO. Again, hypothetically, lets say AK continues to put up .275BA, 20 HR's and 50 or 60 RBI's (I'm pulling those numbers from memory, the point is assume he continues to produce at current levels) and has solid to great defense with an absoulte cannon arm. Let's also assume that Bray develops as most think he will and becomes a solid bullpen arm, and even closer for 5 years. I guess I just don't see the loss here either. I don't think you can assume AK will be here in 5 years so if AK is gone and Bray is burnt out in 5 years it's a wash.

Forget Clayton because he's a stopgap (or dang well better be) and Thomson and Harris may or may not turn into anything. If they do, all the better.

People will say, "hypothetical" is just what it is, a possibility and dimiss this. But Kriv is betting that this version of events, which makes the Reds more rounded and better team, will be what unfolds. Obviously he could be wrong and that's part of the problem people have (along with feeling we could have gotten more). But it's a gamble worth taking IMO.