7/30/06 - Reds vs Brewers Game Thread

[oneupper]

Narron may be a nice person, I'm sure he is. However, IMO (and many others) he does not make decisions to improve the team's probability of winning games and ultimately a playoff berth.
Today's game was another example of playing the probabilities poorly.

Now does this mean "Jerry Lost the Game"? No...we have no way of knowing what the outcome would have been if different decisions had been made. So it's not 100% Jerry's fault and not the team's. But there is a degree of culpability.

In Poker you can't control the cards you are given. But you can play the odds...get the most out of your good hands and not let the bad ones hurt you. That's what separates good players from the bad ones.

Being a fan of probabilities...I'd say Jerry is playing a lot of bad hands. He's still got chips left among other things because he's been lucky...but if he continues to fritter them away playing bad hands...his stack is going to go away quickly.

[kbrake]

That's one of my beefs.....the lineups don't make a lot of sense at times.

However, they're still winning more than they're losing.

Wouldnt you have to agree though that if you continue to play without your 8 best that it will eventually catch up with us? Or you could look at it like how many more games would this team had won if Edwin was playing everday and Griffey was hitting down in the order and this and that. Everyday people want to puke when they look at Jerry Narrons line-up.

[pedro]

Not since April. 17-8 in April...you do the math.

They're 10-6 since the trade that "blew a hole in the side of the team"

[pedro]

Wouldnt you have to agree though that if you continue to play without your 8 best that it will eventually catch up with us? Or you could look at it like how many more games would this team had won if Edwin was playing everday and Griffey was hitting down in the order and this and that. Everyday people want to puke when they look at Jerry Narrons line-up.

and yet Rich Aurilia, of whom I'm no big fan, is hitting something like .350 this month. he sure as hell ain't the Reds problem right now.

[reds44]

Fine question. He makes plenty of bad decisions in hindsight, in a game that requires 100's of decisions.

At the end of the day, it's more important to look at the big picture, and see the overall record of a team with one of the lower payrolls in the league, no pitching coach, and a AAA collection for a pitching staff.

It wasn't hindsight.

People questioned Narron when he left Harang out their for the 7th, and people questioned letting Castro hit as soon as he did it.

The only logical explanation is that Narron knew he was going to pitch hit Edwin for LaRue and Ross for the pitcher. If he used EE for Castro and Ross for LaRue he would have had to use Deno or Clayton for the pitchers spot.

Now I am one of the people who thinks we will cross that bridge when we get to it, but Narron must have felt more comfortable with Castro then Denorfia or Clayton.

But if that is the case why is Clayton starting everyday over Castro? He certainly isn't a better defender.

[reds44]

and yet Rich Aurilia, of whom I'm no big fan, is hitting something like .350 this month. he sure as hell ain't the Reds problem right now.

I would not have a problem with Rich starting everyday for this team.

Just not playing 3rd over Edwin.

[westofyou]

What were the odds Castro would get lucky one more time in the 9th? Baseball is a game of numbers and odds are Castro sucks and shouldnt be allowed to hit in a crucial point in any game.

Speaking of odds, in a study done at Retrosheet looking at 122905 games the amount of times a team wins a game in which they have a 4 run lead in the ninth inning is 99.5%.

So 614 times a team has come back, that's some long odds.

[Matt700wlw]

Wouldnt you have to agree though that if you continue to play without your 8 best that it will eventually catch up with us? Or you could look at it like how many more games would this team had won if Edwin was playing everday and Griffey was hitting down in the order and this and that. Everyday people want to puke when they look at Jerry Narrons line-up.

Freel RF
Phillips 2B
EE 3B
Dunn LF
Griffey CF
Hatte/Aurilia 1B
Ross C
Clayton/Castro SS


or something like that...

[kbrake]

Narron may be a nice person, I'm sure he is. However, IMO (and many others) he does not make decisions to improve the team's probability of winning games and ultimately a playoff berth.
Today's game was another example of playing the probabilities poorly.

Now does this mean "Jerry Lost the Game"? No...we have no way of knowing what the outcome would have been if different decisions had been made. So it's not 100% Jerry's fault and not the team's. But there is a degree of culpability.

In Poker you can't control the cards you are given. But you can play the odds...get the most out of your good hands and not let the bad ones hurt you. That's what separates good players from the bad ones.

Being a fan of probabilities...I'd say Jerry is playing a lot of bad hands. He's still got chips left among other things because he's been lucky...but if he continues to fritter them away playing bad hands...his stack is going to go away quickly.

Very well said.

[SteelSD]

Well, this game thread has certainly turned into a barrel-'o-monkey's fun fest.

Used to be a time when a less highly-strung group of folks could get through a game thread without post-by-post attacks directed at other posters. Used to be a time when posts were scrutinized and responded to using logic rather than venom.

Hey, I'm as prone to being a snide cuss (in fact, that's my official Redszone title), but these recent game threads just plain suck right now at a level I've rarely seen previously. There. I said it. They suck. Oh, I know it's a residual of the Kearns/Lopez swap but at some point we need to get over that board-dividing event and start talking actual baseball again.

[reds44]

Freel RF
Phillips 2B
EE 3B
Dunn LF
Griffey CF
Hatte/Aurilia 1B
Ross C
Clayton/Castro SS


or something like that...

Freel-RF
Hatte-1B
Edwin-3B
Dunn-LF
Griffey-CF
Rich-2B
Phillips-SS
Ross- C

IMHO would be the best lineup.

[Falls City Beer]

Well, this game thread has certainly turned into a barrel-'o-monkey's fun fest.

Used to be a time when a less highly-strung group of folks could get through a game thread without post-by-post attacks directed at other posters. Used to be a time when posts were scrutinized and responded to using logic rather than venom.

Hey, I'm as prone to being a snide cuss (in fact, that's my official Redszone title), but these recent game threads just plain suck right now at a level I've rarely seen previously. There. I said it. They suck. Oh, I know it's a residual of the Kearns/Lopez swap but at some point we need to get over that board-dividing event and start talking actual baseball again.

I agree. The personal attacks are really getting old.

[Matt700wlw]

Freel-RF
Hatte-1B
Edwin-3B
Dunn-LF
Griffey-CF
Rich-2B
Phillips-SS
Ross- C

IMHO would be the best lineup.

I like that to, but those "moves" (Phillips, Aurila) aren't going to happen

[oneupper]

Speaking of odds, in a study done at Retrosheet looking at 122905 games the amount of times a team wins a game in which they have a 4 run lead in the ninth inning is 99.5%.

So 614 times a team has come back, that's some long odds.

That's why you try to avoid digging that hole.

[reds44]

I like that to, but those "moves" (Phillips, Aurila) aren't going to happen

Then you won't see Edwin everyday.

Not that I agree with that.