"A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."
http://dalmady.blogspot.com
From Marc's blog.
Jerry Narron, when asked if he considered bunting Aurilia to move Clayton to third:
"No way. No. He’s swinging the bat really well. Knew they were going to come in with Kline on Dunn and Dunn has just as good a chance of hitting the ball out of the ballpark as he does getting him in from third base.
"Shoot – you’re going to take the bat out of the hands of the guy who’s been your hottest hitter over the last 10 days? Not me."
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
Oh my lord Steel and company, you keep quiet, don't even wish for such a thing. I understand what you're saying but the solution is not to ship Dunn off; it's to fix the stupid guys who are messing him up and smack them across the face when they don't appreciate him. No more Kearns, no more FeLo = Dunn stays, ie. somebody appreciates the fact that he is one of the most valuable Reds in recent memory. So the solution here is to change their approach towards him, not to get rid of him.
I was at the game today, which sucked awfully, obviously. I really need to stop going to see them -- they are 1-5 with me in attendance this year, 0-3 at Great American, ie. I have yet to see the Reds win a game there ever. The hitting, despite .5 seconds of intelligence, was awful, but in all fairness the pitching was not that bad. Schoenweis had about three or four terrific pitches that were the highlight of my day, really terrific stuff.
All that aside, that ballpark is really growing on me. What an absolutely perfect place to spend an afternoon, up in the sun, beer, scorecard, view, baseball...I think the park is well-done and underrated. There were five people there. Three were Giants fans. And yes, they all booed the last time Dunn struck out.
There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.
“And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject.” Jamie Galbraith
I am glad Aurilia wasn't bunting. The number of expected runs drops with a runner on third and one out, as compared to a runner on second and no outs.
See THIS LINK for a detailed discussion of this. On average, a situation with a runner on third and one out, assuming the bunt is successful, yields about .907 runs on average. A runner on second with no outs yields 1.054 runs on average. When you bunt, there is always a chance of an unsuccesful bunt. But even if successful, you would be a worse situation than before.
This is even more true with Aurilia, a .300 hitter at the plate, and Dunn on deck. Three times out of ten Aurilia will score the runner on a hit. If Dunn comes up with a runner on third and one out, he has a significant chance of striking out, as he did. All year, Dunn has only 3 sac flies (in 600 plate appearances). Dunn is NOT a good contact hitter, and his chances of advancing a runner on third are below average. (Of course if he hits a HR, the runner scores regardless of what base they were on...)
On this one, Narron played the odds and lost. But at least it was the right statistical decision. See Narrons comments over on Marc's blog HERE.
__________________
"I think we’re starting to get to the point where people are starting to get tired of this stretch of ball,” Votto said. “I think something needs to start changing and start going in a different direction. I’m going to do my part to help make that change.”
I had to work today, so I didn't see the game. However, I taped it and just finished watching it. (I didn't know the outcome until I actually watched it.) It was a disappointing loss, IMO, especially since Felipe Alou was using a "Sunday Special" lineup of his own against the Reds' best lineup vs. LHP given the current circumstances regarding Griffey.
A few observations:
1) I thought Sun-Woo Kim pitched pretty well after a shaky first two innings. (It looked like he had the jitters at the beginning of the game.) 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K is not a bad line.
2) Norris Hopper had a nice PH-single in the fifth. (For some reason, he reminds me of Greg Tubbs from 1993.)
3) Ryan Franklin allowing a HR to Ray Durham on an 0-2 pitch is unforgivable! There are two things in baseball I can't stand--batters taking called third strikes, and pitchers throwing hittable 0-2 pitches.
4) Scott Hatteberg should have pinch-hit for Royce Clayton in the 8th inning. It worked out, as Royce hit an RBI double, but Hatte still should have been up in that situation.
No changes today.
Updated Reds HR list (players in italics are active):
Reds All-Time Home Run Leaders
1. Johnny Bench - 389
2. Frank Robinson - 324
3. Tony Perez - 287
4. Ted Kluszewski - 251
5. George Foster - 244
6. Eric Davis - 203
7. Barry Larkin - 198
8. Adam Dunn - 197
9. Vada Pinson - 186
10. Wally Post - 172
11. Ken Griffey, Jr. - 164
12. Gus Bell - 160
13. Joe Morgan - 152
13. Pete Rose - 152
15. Lee May - 147
16. Dan Driessen - 133
17. Reggie Sanders - 125
18. Ernie Lombardi - 120
19. Sean Casey - 118
20. Frank McCormick - 110
21. Dave Parker - 107
22. Chris Sabo - 104
23. Dave Concepcion - 101
24. Gordy Coleman - 98
25. Paul O'Neill - 96
Eric Stratton, Rush Chairman. Damn glad to meet ya.
Interesting points. I have some related thoughts.A few observations:
1) I thought Sun-Woo Kim pitched pretty well after a shaky first two innings. (It looked like he had the jitters at the beginning of the game.) 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K is not a bad line.
2) Norris Hopper had a nice PH-single in the fifth. (For some reason, he reminds me of Greg Tubbs from 1993.)
3) Ryan Franklin allowing a HR to Ray Durham on an 0-2 pitch is unforgivable! There are two things in baseball I can't stand--batters taking called third strikes, and pitchers throwing hittable 0-2 pitches.
4) Scott Hatteberg should have pinch-hit for Royce Clayton in the 8th inning. It worked out, as Royce hit an RBI double, but Hatte still should have been up in that situation.
1. Kim got hammered. His line conceals the fact that there were several rockets hit right at people.
2. I like Hopper. He's got a nice short stroke and it seems like he'd make a lot of hard contact (though without much power). He should be on the 40-man going into next year, and I'd like to see him make the team. I'm not sure he isn't better than Denorfia.
3. Ryan Franklin inspires no confidence in me.
4. Hatteberg should have hit for Ross in the 8th. Ross had an absolutely terrible game offensively and defensively. He looked tired to me, coming back after a night game.
And...
5. Dunn is fried. The guy needs a rest every now and then.
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