Game Thread 9-17 - if anyone cares

[Heath]

Gee Mr. Peabody. Where did we put that thing?

I thought you had it??

[traderumor]

Sometimes he is a good offensive player. Sometimes he is not very good at all. I think a lot of GM's might have seen that Kearns bat had slowed a great deal. I saw it. Different folks want different things. Who knows what player Epstein wanted more? Outside of speculating, I surely don't.

Randy, I lost hope that Kearns was ever going to be little more than an average OFer. His swing is just too long and the speed loss you noted had become evident. He will have to work his butt off to change that course, in my not so expert opinion.

[Cyclone792]

Shortcoming, but the reality is, THEY were a big part of the Reds offensive surge in June and July.

And they were counted on to continue their unlikely success. That's a serious problem going forward that I'd like to avoid.

When you count on career years and over-your-head production for more than a few months, you're likely going to be falling down backwards when it becomes painfully obvious that over-your-head production was just that.

[RollyInRaleigh]

I thought you had it??

Sherman could never be trusted with that thing.

[Heath]

The Reds biggest problem has been an unwillingness to burn it to the ground for the last five years(unlike Florida ). The problem they have now is that there is almost nothing to fuel the fire. A bleak forecast indeed.

So, in your opinion, the last five years are the problem. Was Wayne K the general manager all that time?

[flyer85]

Not to nit-pick... but Ross does have an excuse for the post ASB drop-off - his foot injury. [or does that matter with stats?]

and late 20 surges by catchers is not unheard of. However, it is hard to see how a 3rd catcher fits in next year with two already under contract. That is unless someone wants to argue that three catchers is a good thing.

[RollyInRaleigh]

Randy, I lost hope that Kearns was ever going to be little more than an average OFer. His swing is just too long and the speed loss you noted had become evident. He will have to work his butt off to change that course, in my not so expert opinion.

The older he gets, the more fatal the flaw.

[Heath]

The older he gets, the more fatal the flaw.

That's what they told you at the Reds Fantasy Camp, right??

[BrooklynRedz]

then why are they playing and not Chris "it's his time" Denorfia. They have no business on a malgue roster, ever. The fact that they are now raises the question if the management had any idea what below replacement level means.

It's what teams out of the chase do in September. They play the twenty-somethings to determine if there is anything there worth keeping around. Chris Denorfia is no mystery. The Reds know full-well what they've got. Wise and Hopper? Not so much.

[Falls City Beer]

Uh-huh. And by that logic, I'm assuming you would consider Bowden a competent GM? He is, after all, the GM who assembled that OF.

I'm happy with the GM we have, thanks.

So Bowden is the only choice I get; I can't point to Jocketty over the last 6 seasons finding great, cheap replacements (and dumping them at the right time) or what Melvin's done with his offense? Or what Atlanta does pretty routinely with stopgap guys?

I have no objection at all to you liking Krivsky, nor am I inimical to the idea that Bowden should remain in baseball purgatory, but I'd love to know why you are happy with Krivsky--and please don't just point to his pre-July 1 moves because it's common knowledge that all those positive moves have been countervailed by the post-July 1 moves. Please just tell me, in as clear a language as possible, what is it about Wayne's philosophy/method that you are happy with?

[SteelSD]

I find it hard to believe Jr ever thought to himself, "I gotta step it up, Lopez isn't here any more". Same with Dunn or Hatteburg. I don't think they'd approach an at bat any different if they suddenly were playing for the Mud Hens so not having AK or Lopez wouldn't make a witt of difference to them, IMO.

I don't think you understand my meaning. Regardless of the "try" factor, lineup dynamics change when you remove two cogs like Lopez and Kearns. Players "pressing" was the least of my concern. Removing two guys who worked the snot out of pitchers, produced high OBP totals (resulting in additional high-quality opportunity for the hitters behind them), and- in Lopez' case- speed changes lineup dynamics in addition to helping slump-proof the team.

I think it's reasonable to consider that Ross, Freel and EE started pressing thinking they had to pull some extra weight. They are younger and less experenced so I think you raise a valid point that the loss of AK and Lopez would have some psycological impact on them that would effect them at the plate.

David Ross is 29 and Ryan Freel is 30. If anyone started pressing, I'd suggest that it might have been Dunn- particularly after Griffey went down. But, again, the psychological impact of the trade is far lower on the totem pole than how it affected the performance dynamics of the lineup over time.

If there was a direct cause and effect (ie, the trade triggered a collective slump) however, I would have thought it would have shown up much sooner if that were the case. .

What I'm saying is that the Reds- with players like Kearns and Lopez- would be less prone to long-term collective slumps because of the nature of their talents (particularly their ability to work pitchers and plate discipline). The team didn't have to go into a collective slump immediately after the trade, but the team maintaining such performance over time is directly related to a reduction in plate discipline and working counts. It was part and parcel to the offensive dynamic last year as well as early on this year. A team can take that hit if it receives a bigger additional boost somewhere else, but that wasn't going to happen even if both RP's acquired performed up to their pre-ASB level. In short, it was a value loss even if Bray and Majewski pitched well. That's enough to make the swap inexcusable on the day of the deal. What's happened since has just further buried it in the litterbox.

[RBA]

The Kearns/Lopez trade for crap is old news. Simply put, Wayne K. got owned by Bowden.

Time to move on.

We need some Outfield bats and Chris Denorfia will never be more than a 4th Outfielder.

[flyer85]

So, in your opinion, the last five years are the problem. Was Wayne K the general manager all that time?

Nope, overall he just didn't help the long term situation and maybe with RCast and "win now" it was not possible but I have yet to see a GM accurately assess the state of the organization and act accordingly. WK started out fine until he could not resist win now and the disaster of a trade that followed.

[RollyInRaleigh]

That's what they told you at the Reds Fantasy Camp, right??

Absolutely. Lots of long swings there. Fortunately, I was taught to swing the bat the right way, by pulling the knob to the ball and keeping my hands inside. Unfortunately, when you get older, even when you do it correctly, it still becomes a problem. In Kearns case, it just takes the paycheck out of his pocket. The loooonnnnggg swing is not a good thing.

[RedFanAlways1966]

If that was what Pena, Kearns and Lopez were than the Reds could use a big order of nothing. They each had their warts but they are productive players even if you don'e want to admit it. Pena actually brought something but he likely had the lowest value of the three. I am sure the Theo would have given the Reds a bit more for Kearns than Pena.

I guess it is common knowledge who Krivsky talked to and what offers were made? Or perhaps it is common knowledge that he jumped at the first offers he received? Personal friends w/ Theo or just taking a stab w/ that comment?

The pitching numbers of the REDS in the last 5-7 years should be analyzed. I saw that the REDS avg. 5.03 runs/game last year. The differences to start this year were Ross (injured LaRue) and Hatteberg (traded Casey). Not sure if Ross or Hatte were worse than last year's LaRue and Casey. Oh, before I forget, the REDS gave up 5.45 runs/game last year. If anyone cares the drop in both RS-RA have been greater for less runs allowed than runs scored. Still giving up more than allowing, but the gap has closed compared to last year.

How soon we forget that this team has outperformed expectations at the start of the year. One more win means a better record than last year. I hope they can do this with 13 games remaining. Nothing to brag about, but an improvement all the same. I guess I am admitting that I did not expect a miracle (making the postseason) this year.