Why make a major trade now?

[1955red]

We have an outfield of Dunn, Hamilton, Bruce/Griffey. All 4 are
capable of hitting 40 hr with 100 rbi's or more. Griffey will most
likely go down with injury plus his contract runs out after the 2008
season. Hamilton is also likely to be out because of injury(at least
some). 2009 would see the 3 less Griffey as our outfielders. Griffey is an extreme liability on defense anyway. He virtually is
not tradeable. Just let nature run it's course over the next year.
You have Votto, Phillips(one of our best players), and Encarnacion
in the infield. All are capable of 30 hrs and around 100 rbi's.
You have Gonzales/Keppinger at SS. You can live with Ross at
C because of his defense and ability to throw out baserunners.
Now, the kicker. All of the above except Dunn and Griffey will be
relatively cheap salary wise for the next several years. Griffey
goes off the books at least partially after next year. You have
Bailey and Cueto coming up along with Cordero. I say scrounge up
another decent pitcher or two and run with it. We have to depend
on our farm system at some point. We won't be paying our pitchers a whole lot either with the exception of Cordero. That
should leave us leverage to jump in the free agent market again
next year or take someone's salary dump on a pitcher. The offensive production should be awesome(especially if Encarnacion comes around). The overall cost should be relatively cheap.

[*BaseClogger*]

We have an outfield of Dunn, Hamilton, Bruce/Griffey. All 4 are
capable of hitting 40 hr with 100 rbi's or more. Griffey will most
likely go down with injury plus his contract runs out after the 2008
season. Hamilton is also likely to be out because of injury(at least
some). 2009 would see the 3 less Griffey as our outfielders. Griffey is an extreme liability on defense anyway. He virtually is
not tradeable. Just let nature run it's course over the next year.
You have Votto, Phillips(one of our best players), and Encarnacion
in the infield. All are capable of 30 hrs and around 100 rbi's.
You have Gonzales/Keppinger at SS. You can live with Ross at
C because of his defense and ability to throw out baserunners.
Now, the kicker. All of the above except Dunn and Griffey will be
relatively cheap salary wise for the next several years. Griffey
goes off the books at least partially after next year. You have
Bailey and Cueto coming up along with Cordero. I say scrounge up
another decent pitcher or two and run with it. We have to depend
on our farm system at some point. We won't be paying our pitchers a whole lot either with the exception of Cordero. That
should leave us leverage to jump in the free agent market again
next year or take someone's salary dump on a pitcher. The offensive production should be awesome(especially if Encarnacion comes around). The overall cost should be relatively cheap.

[camisadelgolf]

I'll go ahead and post a reply before this gets moved. For the first time in a long time, the Reds are both in a strong position to compete and have a nice stockpile of prospects. Depending on the trade, they might be able to pull off something that will make them the NL Central favorites and keep them competitive for the next several years.

[1955red]

My point is how do we know that Bailey and Cueto won't be as
good or better than the pitcher we trade for in a few years. We
know they will be much cheaper. Pitchers are apt to blow out an
arm at any time or just be a bust(Milton). Everyday players have
a more reliable expected return(especially the ones we are talking
about trading). Pitching wins ball games but they are also as
volatile as the stock market. I would hate for us to tie up the
money for the kind of big name pitcher being discussed and have them blow an arm out. We may be able to get similiar results from
Bailey and Cueto. If they blow out an arm it won't handicap the
payroll for years to come(i.e. another Griffey and Milton situation).
It is imperitive that a small market club such as the Reds have and
rely on a strong farm system. I've been a Reds fan since 1955 and
our farm system has always been weak for the most part. When
a pitcher commands 15-20 million per year, that is out of our range.

[camisadelgolf]

Some people firmly go by 'a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush'. With an established pitcher, you typically have a better idea of what you will receive as opposed to a prospect who is still figuring things out. Personally, when people talk about trading Homer Bailey for Erik Bedard, I get discouraged because Homer Bailey might be just as good as Erik Bedard in a couple years. However, the Reds have some strong outfield depth right now, and they're really only one impact starting pitcher from being the favorite in the NL Central. If the Reds can find a way to add a #2 or #3 starter while giving up an All-Star caliber outfielder (i.e. Adam Dunn or Josh Hamilton) plus lesser prospects, I think the Reds' starting lineup can stay strong and combined with a top-notch starting rotation, keep them competitive over the next few years and beyond.

[1955red]

I can see your point. However, Griffey most likely is gone after
the coming season (2008). If we trade Hamilton or Bruce, the
outfield won't be so strong in 2009(unless we can pick up a
free agent or someone via trade). I think having both Dunn &
Griffey in the outfield really compromises us on defense. We could
trade Votto(I don't think he will bring the desired return at this
point) and move Dunn to 1b. We still have to allow for not having
Griffey whether he is gone or injured. If the new pitcher we trade
for comes up lame, you can stick a fork in us for the foreseeable
future. It's a huge gamble either way in my opinion.