Doc sez Krivsky FIRED!

[redsmetz]

Wayne knew he was on thin ice. He had to know.
He was even proud of himself for ignoring Cast's orders to put a winning team on the field, and sacrificing his job to maintain the crown jewels. He deluded himself.

Wayne was probably caught by surprise that it happened yesterday as opposed to the end of the year, but he had to know the ax was coming.

Redread, you've finally convinced. There was nothing worthwhile about Wayne Krivsky and I can't imagine why I've ever thought otherwise. And there's nothing wrong with Bob Castellini or Walt Jockety and happy days are here again.

Does that satisfy you?

I best add an addendum to this tongue in cheek response. WK was not without flaws and the team's current lack of depth has made that evident. Folks are right that we have numerous redundancies throughout this roster that have boded ill for the current season.

My reaction above is to you giving no quarter that Krivsky had an positive points. A few have noted some of it is comical, but it's just plain tiresome.

Again, Jockety (is it one "t" or two?) may well get the job done, but I for one have been looking forward to this plethora of young pitching coming up that was going to give us, potentially, probably the best young staff that we've had since the earliest days of what became The Big Red Machine. Yes, some of your depth in the minors should be leveraged into to better the ML club, but it was looking really exciting to see us develop or acquire some young talent that we have from the get go. That's Wayne's doing, your protestations notwithstanding.

[REDREAD]

Redread, you've finally convinced. There was nothing worthwhile about Wayne Krivsky and I can't imagine why I've ever thought otherwise. And there's nothing wrong with Bob Castellini or Walt Jockety and happy days are here again.

Does that satisfy you?

Almost. You forgot to mention what a criminal Allen and Lindner were.

Actually, I think Wayne did some good. He did more harm than good though, and he'd never take us to the next level.

[OldXOhio]

I think that is true.

I think that Castellini should have talked to Krivsky and then just exercised his prerogative to hire Jocketty for the "GM seat".

Perhaps if he had more "people skills" he could have salvaged the relationship with Krivsky so that Krivsky could have been an asset to the Reds in other capacities, and Castellini would not have had to eat another contract of his making. There could have been a much smoother and cleaner transition it seems to me.

Yeah, despite my enthusiasm over the notion that Walt Jocketty is now our GM, I do feel bad for Wayne over how this went down. And you're right, perhaps WK could have been retained in some other capacity. Those "demotions" usually don't last for very long, but at least some semblance of an amicable split could have been achieved as opposed to simply ushering him out the door as a failure.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

I feel bad for how it went down with Mackanin.

Karma.

[pedro]

Almost. You forgot to mention what a criminal Allen and Lindner were.

Actually, I think Wayne did some good. He did more harm than good though, and he'd never take us to the next level.

How you can even pretend Wayne left the reds worse off than he found them is mind boggling.

[REDREAD]

True, thus Castellini should be given equal weight for hiring Krivsky and firing him. Since you believe and many others do that Krivsky was a bad choice and poor hire, then Castellini owns that along with firing him to correct his previous errors in judgment.

And I agree here. Cast deserves some blame for hiring a GM that wasn't on board with his plan. I know Cast was in a hurry to get rid of DanO and move on, but that is not an excuse for not hiring the right GM.

[pedro]

I heard Jason Stark on the radio last night and he said that the consensus reaction around MLB was that people were "appalled" by this move.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

I heard Jason Stark on the radio last night and he said that the consensus reaction around MLB was that people were "appalled" by this move.

And most of those same people critcized the hiring of WK and every move he ever made.

[RFS62]

10/3/07 - the day of infamy for Wayne. Walt admitted he and Cast have talked for some time about working together again in Cincinnati. Once STL let Walt go, it was just a matter of time. All the excuses in the world can be used to justify this firing - in the end, BC simply wanted Jocketty in the GM seat.

I think this is exactly right. I don't think Jocketty was duplicitous in his statements of not coming here looking for the job. I do think, however, that Castbrenner decided immediately once Jocketty was let go by the Cardinals that he would get his man.

[IslandRed]

So how can that be explained? That's one mystery I can't figure out. If you take his acquisitions on player specific level (adding Hamilton/Volquez, Phillips, Arroyo) to the emerging base of Harang/EdE/Cueto and Griffey's health, the team should have improved in the W/L column. Why is the team still bad?

Lineup construction?
Bullpen woes?

I don't get it.

I'm going off memory and baseball-reference.com, so bear with me. It might shed a little light or it might not.

The team Krivsky inherited was coming off a 73-89 season in 2005. Its Pythagorean record was 75-87, with 820 runs scored and 889 runs allowed. 889 runs, by the way, was last in the National League and last in Reds' history, no real hope for improvement was evident, and by all accounts, the best hope for help on the farm was Homer Bailey, still in A-ball at the time. At least that was an improvement over 2004, when the Pythag won-lost was 67-95.

820 runs is pretty solid, though. But look closer and you'll see some career years and better-than-expected performances, even after adjusting for the home park. A rational person wouldn't have expected that level of production to sustain itself over the next year (much less until now) with the same cast of characters, and it didn't. Then figure in that Sean Casey had already been traded away by the time Krivsky got there, for a guy that ended up not helping the pitching staff at all. Second base was about to be turned over to Tony Womack.

So we had a 75-win (by the Pythag) team in 2005 that most objective people would have predicted to be worse in 2006 based on its status on the day Krivsky was hired.

But it wasn't worse. In 2006, the Reds went 80-82 and stuck in the race for awhile, although it was a 76-win Pythag team. Despite the save-blowing bullpen, the pitching staff cut nearly 90 runs off, offsetting what should have been a predictable decline on offense. It could have been a better than 76-win Pythag team if not for The Trade, and that chaps some people to this day. Others thought the team was going to be -- to borrow M2's phrase -- puke, and the fact that they were close at all was only due to the positive impact of Krivsky's early moves. I guess we all have to do our own accounting based on how good we think the team would have been without all the stuff, good or bad, Krivsky did in 2006.

On to 2007: The actual W-L got worse, the Pythag stayed about the same at 75 wins. The offense got better, the run prevention backslid a little bit. It's safe to say things were a little stagnant despite the Josh Hamilton success story, so that's a fair criticism.

Going into 2008, most people were predicting the pitching to improve with the offense against regressing somewhat; the actual degree of improvement to be predicated on how well the young pitchers did. PECOTA had the Reds at 80-82, which would be an improvement from last year and a significant improvement over the status quo Krivsky inherited. But improved enough for Castellini's taste? Apparently not.

I think the evidence supports the notion that Krivsky made the team better while he was here, perhaps significantly so. There are also plenty of arguments to be made that, now that the big club is in a better state and the farm system is too, Jocketty will do a better job with it from here on than Krivsky would've. Personally, I hope so; while I feel bad for Krivsky, the thing that would make it worse would be doing all this for nothing.

[pedro]

And most of those same people critcized the hiring of WK and every move he ever made.

I got the impression he was talking about people who worked throughout MLB, not the media.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

I got the impression he was talking about people who worked throughout MLB, not the media.

Yeah, I got that too, but it seemed whenever WK did anything we'd hear what the "baseball people" thought of it through certain people in the media. Maybe it's their way of hiding behind bogus sources to make their point, but it always seemed that everyone from media to "baseball people" behind the scenes have constantly railed on anything this franchise has done, including hiring WK and most of his moves.

It just seems convenient that the "baseball people" think this move is bad too.

I just think the franchise is an easy target.

[pedro]

Yeah, I got that too, but it seemed whenever WK did anything we'd hear what the "baseball people" thought of it through certain people in the media. Maybe it's their way of hiding behind bogus sources to make their point, but it always seemed that everyone from media to "baseball people" behind the scenes have constantly railed on anything this franchise has done, including hiring WK and most of his moves.

It just seems convenient that the "baseball people" think this move is bad too.

I just think the franchise is an easy target.

hard to argue with that.

[M2]

Outside of The Trade what moves that Krivsky made got generally panned by "baseball people"?

He only made three high profile trades and two of them (for Arroyo and Volquez) caused no national hue and cry. He signed Cordero, which drew fire from the stats folks, but the "baseball people" were mostly complimentary of the move. So he got slammed for one dog of a trade, that's hardly makes the Reds baseball's whipping boy.

[Reds Nd2]

I heard Jason Stark on the radio last night and he said that the consensus reaction around MLB was that people were "appalled" by this move.

From Baseball America issue 0718 - Aug.27 - Sept. 9.

"There's alot of pressure on guys like (Reds GM) Wayne Krivsky and (Pirates GM) Dave Littlefield from their owners not to make what will be perceived by the media and talk shows as a bad deal. The Reds were supposed to be remade into the model of the Twins, but 16 months into a five year rebuilding plan, the owner wants immediate results. It's unfair, but it really puts some general managers in boxes." - Anonymous GM