Stubbs to Chattanooga

[camisadelgolf]

I expect to see Dickerson to Reds and a Lookouts outfielder to Bats soon.

Shaun Cumberland was sent to Louisville the same day Stubbs was sent to Chattanooga. I don't know what the plan for replacing Stubbs in Sarasota is, though.

[TRF]

I'm sorry TRF, but in isolation, two months in a row is still meaningless. The more data we have the better. If it's 3 months in a row, it starts to reach the level of meaningful. And if it's 4 or 5, now you're talking. But 2 is not the point at which we can start to infer meaning. The sample size is still too small.

I agree with your second point though. Add it to your overall body of knowledge. Selectively choosing end points to establish a new baseline is folly. It is extremely unlikely that Stubbs' true ability has changed for the worse over the course of the year. Stubbs isn't the .900+ OPS guy he was in April and he's not the sub .700 OPS guy he was in June. He's the guy who did both and as he accrues at bats is most likely to produce something closer to his season-to-date numbers than any of his monthly breakouts or grouping thereof.

He didn't hit at Billings
He didn't hit at Dayton until the final 2 months
He hasn't hit at Sarasota except for April.

That's not a very good profile so far. I hope he rakes at Chattanooga. I really, really do.

But I'm not buying so far.

[OnBaseMachine]

Reds Promote Stubbs To Double-A

Posted Jul. 9, 2008 7:43 pm by Nathan Rode
Filed under: Daily Dish, Promotions

Reds outfielder Drew Stubbs, the organization’s No. 5 prospect entering the season has been promoted to Double-A Chattanooga. The eighth overall pick in 2006, Stubbs hit .261/.366/.406 in 303 at-bats with 27 stolen bases for high Class A Sarasota.

Stubbs is a supremely athletic outfielder with above-average speed, defense and raw power. If his hitting comes around he could be a star with three above-average tools, although he has to stay healthy to reach that potential. A turf-toe injury in 2007 hampered Stubbs, leading to the belief that his career stolen base count should be higher than the current mark of 69.

The strikeouts have piled up with Stubbs, but last year with Daytona, he followed along with the team "choke up" policy that was implemented by coaches. Stubbs benefited the most, hitting .366 after the change and showing more bat control, striking out just twice in the ensuing 42 at-bats.

Stubbs was also named to this year’s Florida State League all-star game in which he hit a home run and took home the MVP honors.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/

[redhawk61]

does he still choke up...cause he should, don't know why the organization would see him make contact consistently and K a great deal less, making him the perfect leadoff hitter, yet allow him to go make to the way it was before. Who cares about the power if he could choke up and hit .285+ with a .380 OBP and a .390-.410 SLG with GG defense and 45+ stolen bases a year, I am pretty sure everyone would be just fine with him.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Another possibility is a Stubbs/Dickerson platoon with Chris getting the call against tough right handers.

I think a Stubbs/Dickerson platoon is an excellent idea.

It only makes sense until one of them separates themselves from the other.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

He didn't hit at Billings
He didn't hit at Dayton until the final 2 months
He hasn't hit at Sarasota except for April.

That's not a very good profile so far. I hope he rakes at Chattanooga. I really, really do.

But I'm not buying so far.

I guarantee Stubbs goes .800+ at Chattanooga from here on out.

I also think he gets a shot to make the 25-man next spring.

I would take a .700+ OPS from him or Dickerson, right now, and tell Corey Patterson to take a hike.

[RedsManRick]

He didn't hit at Billings
He didn't hit at Dayton until the final 2 months
He hasn't hit at Sarasota except for April.

That's not a very good profile so far. I hope he rakes at Chattanooga. I really, really do.

But I'm not buying so far.

Billings: 210 AB, .252/.368/.400, .768
Dayton: 497 AB, .270/.364/.421, .785
Sarasota: 300 AB, .263/.367/.410, .777

Now, I'm in no way a Stubbs defender, but when within those seasons he surged and struggled is really irrelevant. Each year, he's progressed to the next level and maintained his level of performance.

Monthly splits simply aren't valid samples and you should really get past that. Every player has good and bad months, often back to back. On balance, Stubbs has hit. Not incredibly well given his age perhaps, but pretty darn consistently once you look at appropriately sized samples.

If you asked me, a pretty good projection for how he's going to hit in Sarasota would be in the ball park of a .750-.800 OPS. I've actually projected a bit lower than that because of his specific problem making contact. But you can't cherry pick months as a justification.

[OnBaseMachine]

Great debut tonight for Stubbs. He went 4-for-5 with a double and stolen base in his AA debut. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come for him.

[Kingspoint]

After a 4-5 opening night, he hasn't played the last two games.

Why not?

[pahster]

After a 4-5 opening night, he hasn't played the last two games.

Why not?

He hurt his wrist running into the wall.

[tbball10]

After a 4-5 opening night, he hasn't played the last two games.

Why not?

i believe he injured his wrist... possibly in batting practice according to some others on here

[Kingspoint]

Tx.

I remember Junior losing 1/2 a season when he did it.

[757690]

I think a few people are upset that Stubbs has not been another Bruce, or another Bailey the first few years after he was drafted. Being drafted one spot ahead of Lincecum doesn't help either.

But Stubbs is on track to becoming a very valuable everyday player for the Reds. If he can play plus defense in CF, and leadoff with a .360-370 OBP with 20-30 steals every year, he will be one of the teams most valuable players. Who cares what his SLG is if he is leading off?

Hairston has shown us how important a leadoff hitter is, and his OBP is just a bit better than Stubbs. And this team needs defense, badly. Solid defensive CF who can leadoff and steal bases are pretty rare these days, and to have one that is young and under team control for 5 years is a huge advantage.

Now, Stubbs may not be able to continue what he is doing, but if he does, he could be very similar to DeJesus in KC. Just think how good the Reds would be if they had him right now.

[fearofpopvol1]

I think a few people are upset that Stubbs has not been another Bruce, or another Bailey the first few years after he was drafted. Being drafted one spot ahead of Lincecum doesn't help either.

But Stubbs is on track to becoming a very valuable everyday player for the Reds. If he can play plus defense in CF, and leadoff with a .360-370 OBP with 20-30 steals every year, he will be one of the teams most valuable players. Who cares what his SLG is if he is leading off?

Hairston has shown us how important a leadoff hitter is, and his OBP is just a bit better than Stubbs. And this team needs defense, badly. Solid defensive CF who can leadoff and steal bases are pretty rare these days, and to have one that is young and under team control for 5 years is a huge advantage.

Now, Stubbs may not be able to continue what he is doing, but if he does, he could be very similar to DeJesus in KC. Just think how good the Reds would be if they had him right now.

I think projecting a .360-370 OBP is probably a bit generous. I mean, he may reach that (and I hope he does), but I'm not sure how realistic that is.

[redhawk61]

I think a few people are upset that Stubbs has not been another Bruce, or another Bailey the first few years after he was drafted. Being drafted one spot ahead of Lincecum doesn't help either.

But Stubbs is on track to becoming a very valuable everyday player for the Reds. If he can play plus defense in CF, and leadoff with a .360-370 OBP with 20-30 steals every year, he will be one of the teams most valuable players. Who cares what his SLG is if he is leading off?

Hairston has shown us how important a leadoff hitter is, and his OBP is just a bit better than Stubbs. And this team needs defense, badly. Solid defensive CF who can leadoff and steal bases are pretty rare these days, and to have one that is young and under team control for 5 years is a huge advantage.

Now, Stubbs may not be able to continue what he is doing, but if he does, he could be very similar to DeJesus in KC. Just think how good the Reds would be if they had him right now.

agreed, though he is capable of stealing way more than 20-30 a year, more like 40-50