Yeah, if the Reds had a CF prospect who projected a whole lot better than Drew Stubbs, then they'd be better off. And that's pretty much the description of David DeJesus.Originally Posted by 757690
Certainly, things look a lot better when we find someone a prospect isn't like and then wonder how excellent things would be if said prospect was actually like the better player.
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams
I'm glad you said that because I don't see any resemblance to David DeJesus in Drew Stubbs.
I'll take a .350 OBP w/ 45 Steals and A-level Centerfield Defense any day of the week for a starter.
As Stubbs has increased his statline has basically remained the same. He basically put up the same numbers in Sarasota that he did in Dayton which bodes pretty well for him in the future.
I have said this before but I think Stubbs will be a similar player to Dunn. Dunn's HR's will be Stubbs doubles but at the same time he will bring speed to both the base paths and in CF.
I also find irony in Stubbs BA. Most people on this board continue to mention how BA is just a poor stat to use as analysis. However Stubbs continues to be railed because of his low BA. IMO OBP is the best statistical analysis for Stubbs. His value is being able to get on base and make things happen when he does.
I'd be willing to pay quite a bit of money for it.
I really don't get this at all.
As hitters, they have two things in common (inability to make consistent contact, solid ability to get on base in spite of that). Other than that, I can't think of two ballplayers who are more different than Dunn and Stubbs.
Defense - Stubbs is an outstanding defender who makes great reads off the bat, has excellent range, tracks the ball well and takes good angles, and has a strong accurate arm. Dunn is pretty much terrible at all of those things.
Baserunning - Stubbs runs like a deer and by all accounts is a very smart baserunner. Dunn runs like a John Deere and is prone to baserunning blunders.
Hitting for power - Stubbs has the ability to drive the ball into gaps and use his speed to acquire extra bases. Dunn has the ability to hit the ball into the river and walk around the bases.
Even their similarities aren't all that similar, as Dunn showed more ability to make contact and MUCH more ability to get on base as a minor leaguer than Stubbs has shown.
Last edited by Steve4192; 07-14-2008 at 09:13 AM.
Agreed. Especially since you will be seeing more quality strikes. You put a good swing on a good pitch and you are going to have some succes.
Cedric 3/24/08It's absolutely pathetic that people can't have an opinion from actually watching games and supplementing that with stats. If you voice an opinion that doesn't fit into a black/white box you will get completely misrepresented and basically called a tobacco chewing traditionalist...
there's the rub
Dunn was OPSing over 1000 in AA and AAA...Stubbs is OPSing 750ish in A and A+...there is huge likelihood that Stubbs will struggle to maintain a 750 OPS in AAA let alone in the majors.
Dunn and Stubbs are completely opposite types of players...it'd be like comparing apples and oranges.
Stubbs OPS these past two seasons in A ball:
2007: .785
2008: .772
So, it's more like .780ish. Not a huge difference, but there's no need to make him look worse than he really is.
His problem is a low SLG%. If that remains true the BBs are going to dry up(which means the OBP will plummet) when he reaches the majors.
Last edited by flyer85; 07-14-2008 at 12:07 PM.
Yes, generally speaking this is good news. But let's remember that Stubbs is old for his level or at minimum, not young. I like to think of the analogy of a big construction project that is on schedule for completion in 2 years. It's great that it's on schedule today, but any setbacks in that timeline could be quite expensive/damaging.
The #1 defining trait about Adam Dunn is his power. Stubbs does not have Dunn's power. Stubbs #1 defining trait is his defense in CF. Dunn does not have Stubbs defensive ability. Yes, the both walk a lot and strikeout a lot, but they are hardly similar.I have said this before but I think Stubbs will be a similar player to Dunn. Dunn's HR's will be Stubbs doubles but at the same time he will bring speed to both the base paths and in CF.
When people are critical of Stubbs' low batting average, it's not part of an analysis of his level of production. From a production measurement angle, a low BA is not a problem when offset by high OBP and SLG.I also find irony in Stubbs BA. Most people on this board continue to mention how BA is just a poor stat to use as analysis. However Stubbs continues to be railed because of his low BA. IMO OBP is the best statistical analysis for Stubbs. His value is being able to get on base and make things happen when he does.
The problem of Stubbs' low batting average in the minors is that it is indicative of a skill deficiency that may torpedo his career. Batting average tends to decline as player's move up in to the upper minors. Stubbs is already walking as much as he can and has yet to display anything more than 10-15 HR power. If his batting average dips any further, there's not much he can do to offset it and remain a productive offensive player.
Adam Dunn was a .304 career minor league hitter because even though he struck out a lot, when he did put the ball in play he often hit it to a place where it could not be fielded. His power and HOF level plate discipline served as a counter balance to a clear contact problem which became more evident as he reached the majors. Stubbs does not have that luxury.
You know how in some video games, like old-school Mario, the screen would automatically scroll left-to-right and the character had to keep moving or he'd die? The progression of a minor leaguer is sort of like that. Stubbs is staying ahead of the moving screen of death, but he's hardly running ahead or scoring a ton of points along the way.
I'm hopeful that he'll keep it up and perhaps even pick up the pace a bit. But I'm fearful that as he moves in to the upper minors, he's going to run in to an obstacle and the screen is going to catch up to him. Time will tell.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 07-14-2008 at 12:11 PM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
... yet somehow Stubbs is magically going to hit when he reaches the majors.
More like comparing apples and tacos
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