Dunn-a ticking bomb???????

[flyer85]

they CAN replace Dunn's production by signing a 25 hr guy who hits for high average and decent OBP

.290+ AVG
.370+ OBP
.470+ SLG

Is that what they are looking for?

[flyer85]

BTW, LFs(averaged) in the majors have the following line to this point in the 2008 season.

.264 BA
.340 OBP
.430 SLG
12 HRs

[SteelSD]

If he made more contact, he might hit 60 HRs as GASP, with some of his "poorly" hit balls leaving the yard in Cincy.

Assuming similar Fly Ball rates and HR per Fly Ball rates to 2008 based on Dunn's career average AB per season, Dunn would have to eliminate every single one of his strikeouts to even approach 60 HR while playing half his games in the GABP.

Acting as if a player is somehow deficient because he can't do the impossible isn't exactly a good starting or ending point.

[RedsManRick]

Regarding FA, here's my list of options in descending order of likely production:

Pat Burrell
Milton Bradley
Bobby Abreu

Casey Blake
Raul Ibanez
Juan Rivera
Eric Hinske
Craig Monroe
Mark Kotsay

After the first 3, it's a pretty ugly list. I'm with Jojo, I'd like to see us make a pass at Randy Winn.

[westofyou]

What another Dunn thread with obligatory Dunn ripps and Dunn wishes?

Same thoughts - Check

Same people with same thoughts - check

Nothing new said so far - check

[nate]

I wouldn't sign him. Let's look at two factors: when he puts the ball in play, and when he doesn't. An abnormal number of his hits are HRs--in fact when you talk about Dunn's actual base hits, Home Runs are the only issue.

Is that a problem? What percentage of his hits are HR? What's the league average?

Many players could hit 40 HRs for the Reds, players who hit in the 25-30 HR range elsewhere. Now the difference with Dunn is when he hits them, they're way out, and he can hit 40 at GASP OR Petco. Not many players can do that.

So why hasn't anyone else done it then?

Continuing: when Dunn doesn't hit the ball, he walks, or strikes out.

Isn't that the same for every player?

The walks have value if he's a top of the lineup guy, which he isn't in this administration, or if he's a good baserunner, which he isn't in any administration.

Walks never don't have value.

And the strikeouts are of course WPO (Worst Possible Outcome).

A strikeout is worse than hitting into a double play?

As far as defense, the tractor mowing the lawn in left is more nimble than our beloved Adam is. So to summarize, based on his hitting and the Reds ballpark, they CAN replace Dunn's production by signing a 25 hr guy who hits for high average and decent OBP, whose production will be amplfied by playing in Cincinnati. However they can probably sign him for less money than Adam. Sweeten it by signing a guy who plays defense and you could help the Reds' pitching as well--

OK, here's the list:

Left fielders

• Moises Alou (42)
• Garret Anderson (37) - $14MM club option for '09 with a $3MM buyout
• Milton Bradley (31)
• Emil Brown (34)
• Pat Burrell (32)
• Adam Dunn (29)
• Cliff Floyd (36) - $2.75MM club option for '09 with a $0.25MM buyout
• Luis Gonzalez (41)
• Raul Ibanez (37)
• Jacque Jones (34)
• Kevin Mench (31)
• Jason Michaels (33) - $2.6MM club option for '09
• Craig Monroe (32)
• Jay Payton (36)
• Wily Mo Pena (27) - $5MM club option or $2MM player option for '09
• Manny Ramirez (37) - $20MM club option for '09
• Juan Rivera (30)

Center fielders

• Rocco Baldelli (27)
• Mike Cameron (36) - $10MM club option for '09 with a $750K buyout
• Jim Edmonds (39)
• Jacque Jones (34)
• Mark Kotsay (33)
• Corey Patterson (29)

Right fielders

• Bobby Abreu (35)
• Casey Blake (35)
• Milton Bradley (31)
• Cliff Floyd (36) - $2.75MM club option for '09 with a $0.25MM buyout
• Brian Giles (38) - $9MM club option for '09 with a $3MM buyout
• Ken Griffey Jr. (39) - $16.5MM club option for '09 with a $4MM buyout
• Vladimir Guerrero (33) - $15MM club option for '09 with a $3MM buyout
• Jacque Jones (34)
• Bobby Kielty (32)
• Brad Wilkerson (32)

Who would you replace Dunn with from these choices?

[flyer85]

I'd like to see us make a pass at Randy Winn.

I'd pass on the 35+ OFs. PECOTA sees a VORP of 11.0 in 2009 and it drops off the table after that.

[nate]

What another Dunn thread with obligatory Dunn ripps and Dunn wishes?

Same thoughts - Check

Same people with same thoughts - check

Nothing new said so far - check

Don't worry, we'll be starting up a "Drew Stubbs: Bust or Phenom?" thread real soon.

[flyer85]

Reds problem is that they have had 4 effective offensive players so far this season(on a not very good offense)

BP 23.4
Dunn 22.0
Hairston 19.4
Votto 14.5

Subtract one for 2009 in Dunn and the odd of Hairston even coming close to repeating this season are extrememly small. The offense is likely to really struggle next season.

[RedsManRick]

I'd pass on the 35+ OFs. PECOTA sees a VORP of 11.0 in 2009 and it drops off the table after that.

I guess I phrased it wrong. I would rather us go after Randy Winn than offer multiple years to any OF on the FA market not named Dunn or Burrell.

Looking at this market, Burrell and Teixeira are only guys I'd throw big contracts at, and frankly I doubt we'll be able to come close to what they end up getting. Jocketty is going to need to be creative on the trade front in order to give us the talent we'll need to take advantage of this competitive window.

[jojo]

I'd pass on the 35+ OFs. PECOTA sees a VORP of 11.0 in 2009 and it drops off the table after that.

Pecota sees Winn as almost the exact guy he is this season but with less playing time in '09 (i.e. he'd have a VORP of 18 in '09 over 162 games, FYI league average for any given year is somewhere around 20 to 25 for a corner OFer). He's a plus defender and GABP would five him a boost.

Just for fun, this is what BR's conversion tool suggests Winn would be doing in GABP this season (using '07 NL run scoring as the backdrop): .309/.380/.441.

So there's a reasonable chance that Winn could be a roughly league average leftfielder in GABP next season. He could probably be had for next to nothing with the only risk being he'd completely fall off of a cliff and they'd be stuck salary ($8M) but GABP could probably help minimize that risk. Plus he's capable of giving them a RHed boost against lefties. Of course none of this eliminates the chance he'd suddenly fall of a cliff. There aren't many red flags to suggest he's slowing down yet though.

Anyway, the argument isn't that a player like a Winn would replace Dunn. It's that a player like that could account for a chunk that makes it possible for another player to account for a chunk etc.... It's an argument that points to the whole rather than focusing on a specific much like the Ms managed to survive the successive loss of three future HOFers to win 116 games in '01.

[redsmetz]

Who is this magical free agent, and why haven't the Reds found him already?

The earlier poster said there were plenty of guys who could hit 40 HR's playing at GABP. And yet since it opened in 2003, only one player has done so and that is Adam Dunn. Griffey came the closest in 2005 with 35 HR's and both Griff and Phillips hit 30 last year.

And with regards to that same posters comment about Dunn's one dimensional offense, it's overlooked that Dunn has averaged 25 Doubles in the 7 1/2 years he's roamed the Reds outfield.

[westofyou]

The earlier poster said there were plenty of guys who could hit 40 HR's playing at GABP. And yet since it opened in 2003, only one player has done so and that is Adam Dunn. Griffey came the closest in 2005 with 35 HR's and both Griff and Phillips hit 30 last year.

And with regards to that same posters comment about Dunn's one dimensional offense, it's overlooked that Dunn has averaged 25 Doubles in the 7 1/2 years he's roamed the Reds outfield.

Facts are a bad way to phrase an argument, might I suggest conjecture and innuendo?

[Wheelhouse]

I'm shocked.

Point to statement? Other than to express bitterness?

Walks have value for any and every player. That fact is really indisputable.

Walks are much more valueable at the top of the lineup. Indisputable.

No, the worst possible outcome is a first-pitch, infield pop-up. Even a 3-pitch strikeout is better, because you at least force the pitcher to throw 3 pitches.
Well done. Do you like "gotcha." you're still not winning any converts...


Who is this magical free agent, and why haven't the Reds found him already?

I'm on my iPhone and can't create a list, but are you saying those players are not obtainable?

[flyer85]

I guess I phrased it wrong. I would rather us go after Randy Winn than offer multiple years to any OF on the FA market not named Dunn or Burrell.

I could see WInn as a fallback, the preference I would hope is to find a younger player undervalued in his current situation.