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Thread: Dunn-a ticking bomb???????

  1. #46
    Member Red Heeler's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn-a ticking bomb???????

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I think this is something that those wanting to resign Dunn no matter what seem to overlook. Odds that the Reds replace Dunn in a 1 for 1 spot on the roster via free agency/trade/prospect from the minors? Not too good. However the odds that you can replace Dunn with one of those options + the extra money you will have to spend elsewhere on the team and have an overall team replacement of Dunn's production is much more likely.
    The Reds are currently 44-49 and 21st in MLB in runs scored. They need to ADD to Dunn's production, not just replace it.

    Now I'm not opposed to letting Dunn go, but I think it has been shown that replacing him, let alone bettering his production is a tall order.


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  3. #47
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn-a ticking bomb???????

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    I liked this response as well...

    I believe it was Mike and Mike in the Morning when Tim Kurkjian was on the phone as a guest, and they were talking about all of the rumors of pitchers being traded in the wake of the Sabathia and Harden deals. It was noted that there aren’t too many hitters being bandied about in rumors, and if I recall correctly, Timmy K. went out of his way to say that, while Dunn was probably going to be made available, he was not a “big bat.”

    My jaw dropped because I thought Tim was a numbers guy. I wasn’t thinking that he was a strict adherent of Sabermetrics, but I assumed that he was diverse enough in the philosophies to realize that, unless you put all your eggs in the “Rah rah batting average” and “Strikeouts indicate baseball incompetence” baskets, Adam Dunn is easily one of the top-ten most productive hitters in all of baseball — maybe top five.
    I heard that too, but I interpreted the comment not as Kurkjian's opinion of Dunn but how he sees the trade market's opinion of him. Right or wrong, the teams looking to trade for a big bat don't see Dunn as the solution, so in that context, he's not a "big bat." Of course, it only takes one.
    Reading comprehension is not just an ability, it's a choice

  4. #48
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn-a ticking bomb???????

    My jaw dropped because I thought Tim was a numbers guy.
    I never thought of him as a numbers guy, only when he uses them to make his common historical comparisons, he's not what I'd call a sabermatician, he's more a writer than an analyst.

  5. #49
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn-a ticking bomb???????

    Quote Originally Posted by Red Heeler View Post
    The Reds are currently 44-49 and 21st in MLB in runs scored. They need to ADD to Dunn's production, not just replace it.

    Now I'm not opposed to letting Dunn go, but I think it has been shown that replacing him, let alone bettering his production is a tall order.
    While I agree that scoring more runs is needed, I believe improvements made by Bruce, Votto, Encarnacion and perhaps Phillips will help offset that some as well. I am not opposed to bringing Dunn back (although if he won't play first base or play for 7 million in LF.... best of luck elsewhere), but I don't think him leaving is going to kill this team's offense as long as if doesn't mean Corey Patterson gets a starting gig or something.

  6. #50
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn-a ticking bomb???????

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Probably to the same extent that you could classify Derrek Lee's .304 batting average as luck dependent.
    I was thinking it was in the same ballpark as how people define RBI as being lucky.

  7. #51
    Registered User red-in-la's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn-a ticking bomb???????

    Is it possible that his BABIP would come up but the other parts of his game would go down? Dunn's numbers are messed up simply because of what Chris Welch says everytime he goes to the plate. Dunn's swing is the longest in baseball....period. And he pulls off of everything which means he no longer has plate coverage.

    He will almost certainly strike out over 100 times by the All-Star break, and as I have said before, if there are 5 tools, Dunn has ONLY one. His game, if you want to call it that, is the moon-shot. He and/or his agent, it seems to me, have decided to market him as a gate draw, as everyone wants to see how far a human being can actually hit a baseball.

    Unfornately, the rules award on one stripe for the ball hit over the fence, no matter how far it actually travels.

    Do the Reds pay 15-20 million a year for one tool?.....insane, unless that tool is winning 20 games (as a starting pitcher silly) a year.

    I don't care what stats you use to frame it, Dunn is Dave Kingman II and unless somebody wakes him up and tells him to play BASEBALL again, he will finish his career as DK II. A real shame.

  8. #52
    Member Strikes Out Looking's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn-a ticking bomb???????

    I'm not pro-Dunn or Anti-Dunn, I'm Dunn tired and Dunn frustrated.

    Part of me wants to see him with the Reds long term just to see him provide homers and rbis. But then part of me wants to see what the extra money and better defense in lf would bring the team in return with just an average lf who batted righthanded.

    I wonder if Jocketty has a master plan or is just waiting for fate to decide what happens to the Reds LF?

  9. #53
    Registered User red-in-la's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn-a ticking bomb???????

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    While I agree that scoring more runs is needed, I believe improvements made by Bruce, Votto, Encarnacion and perhaps Phillips will help offset that some as well. I am not opposed to bringing Dunn back (although if he won't play first base or play for 7 million in LF.... best of luck elsewhere), but I don't think him leaving is going to kill this team's offense as long as if doesn't mean Corey Patterson gets a starting gig or something.
    I AGREE! Mark this one down somewhere!

  10. #54
    Probably not Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn-a ticking bomb???????

    Quote Originally Posted by red-in-la View Post
    Is it possible that his BABIP would come up but the other parts of his game would go down? Dunn's numbers are messed up simply because of what Chris Welch says everytime he goes to the plate. Dunn's swing is the longest in baseball....period. And he pulls off of everything which means he no longer has plate coverage.

    He will almost certainly strike out over 100 times by the All-Star break, and as I have said before, if there are 5 tools, Dunn has ONLY one. His game, if you want to call it that, is the moon-shot. He and/or his agent, it seems to me, have decided to market him as a gate draw, as everyone wants to see how far a human being can actually hit a baseball.

    Unfornately, the rules award on one stripe for the ball hit over the fence, no matter how far it actually travels.

    Do the Reds pay 15-20 million a year for one tool?.....insane, unless that tool is winning 20 games (as a starting pitcher silly) a year.

    I don't care what stats you use to frame it, Dunn is Dave Kingman II and unless somebody wakes him up and tells him to play BASEBALL again, he will finish his career as DK II. A real shame.
    This has got to be the biggest bait in Redszone history.

  11. #55
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn-a ticking bomb???????

    The Dave Kingman bait again. Here we go.

  12. #56
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn-a ticking bomb???????

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    I was thinking it was in the same ballpark as how people define RBI as being lucky.
    It's a little different though because while GIDP is "opportunity dependent" it's also batted ball tendency-dependent. One reason why the lumbering Dunn doesn't GIDP a ton compared to a guy like Phillips (GIDP%=1.6 vs Phillips' GIDP%=3.5) is that Dunn hits more FBs (46.6%) than GBs (33.7%) on average for his career. On the other hand, Brandon Phillips has almost the opposite batted ball tendencies (FB%=34.8; GB%=46.5). So it's more than just opportunity.....

    Dunn's FB tendencies is one reason why the shift isn't as effective against him as one might think it could be as well.
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  13. #57
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn-a ticking bomb???????

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    The Dave Kingman bait again. Here we go.
    Dave Kingman bait? What are we trying to catch? Doesn't seem like you would get many bites, Kingman is a big dude.

  14. #58
    Registered User red-in-la's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn-a ticking bomb???????

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    The Dave Kingman bait again. Here we go.
    I apologize to DK for the comparisons. Come up with another one if you can. If Kingman walked more, it appears to me that their numbers would be very similar. Of course, when DK played, there wasn't OPS of BABIP.

    He did manage to have a career without them.

  15. #59
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn-a ticking bomb???????

    Dave Kingman gets lots of play in a Dunn thread, but let's consider how many guys K'd over 100 times in the Kingman era and then the Dunn era.

    Let's just use the last 8 years and 75-83

    Code:
    ALL LEAGUES & TEAMS
    2000-2008
    ALL POSITIONS
    STRIKEOUTS >= 100
    
    
    T1   Alex Rodriguez            8   
    T1   Andruw Jones              8   
    T1   Pat Burrell               8   
    T1   Carlos Delgado            8   
    T1   Bobby Abreu               8   
    T6   Richie Sexson             7   
    T6   Derrek Lee                7   
    T6   Jim Edmonds               7   
    T6   Alfonso Soriano           7   
    T6   Jim Thome                 7   
    T6   Mike Cameron              7   
    T6   Geoff Jenkins             7   
    T13  Troy Glaus                6   
    T13  Torii Hunter              6   
    T13  Brad Wilkerson            6   
    T13  Preston Wilson            6   
    T13  Jeromy Burnitz            6   
    T13  Jacque Jones              6   
    T13  Jose Cruz Jr.             6   
    T13  Sammy Sosa                6   
    T13  Lance Berkman             6   
    T13  Adam Dunn                 6   
    T23  Jermaine Dye              5   
    T23  Jeff Bagwell              5   
    T23  Mark Teixeira             5   
    T23  Jason LaRue               5   
    T23  Corey Koskie              5   
    T23  Manny Ramirez             5   
    T23  Shawn Green               5   
    
    
    ALL LEAGUES & TEAMS
    1975-1983
    ALL POSITIONS
    STRIKEOUTS >= 100
    
    
    T1   Mike Schmidt              8   
    T1   Reggie Jackson            8   
    T1   Greg Luzinski             8   
    4    Dave Kingman              7   
    5    Omar Moreno               6   
    T6   Jim Rice                  5   
    T6   George Foster             5   
    T6   Gorman Thomas             5   
    T9   Tony Armas                4   
    T9   Lee May                   4   
    T9   Dale Murphy               4   
    T9   Ron LeFlore               4   
    T9   Bobby Bonds               4   
    T14  Rick Monday               3   
    T14  Lance Parrish             3   
    T14  Claudell Washington       3   
    T14  Doug Rader                3   
    T14  Tony Perez                3   
    T14  Willie Horton             3   
    T14  Willie Stargell           3   
    T14  Gene Tenace               3   
    T22  Dwight Evans              2   
    T22  Ken Singleton             2   
    T22  Andre Dawson              2   
    T22  Roy Smalley               2   
    T22  Butch Hobson              2   
    T22  Mookie Wilson             2   
    T22  Gary Alexander            2   
    T22  George Scott              2   
    T22  Dwayne Murphy             2   
    T22  Larry Parrish             2   
    T22  Jason Thompson            2   
    T22  Dave Hostetler            2   
    T22  Bobby Grich               2   
    T22  Jerry Martin              2   
    T22  Jeff Burroughs            2   
    T22  Dave Parker               2   
    T22  Gary Gaetti               2   
    T22  Chili Davis               2
    Guys K more these days.

  16. #60
    Knowledge Is Good Big Klu's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn-a ticking bomb???????

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Guys K more these days.
    Could you give us the numbers over the same time periods for 150+ K's?
    Eric Stratton, Rush Chairman. Damn glad to meet ya.


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