I heard that too, but I interpreted the comment not as Kurkjian's opinion of Dunn but how he sees the trade market's opinion of him. Right or wrong, the teams looking to trade for a big bat don't see Dunn as the solution, so in that context, he's not a "big bat." Of course, it only takes one.
Reading comprehension is not just an ability, it's a choice
I never thought of him as a numbers guy, only when he uses them to make his common historical comparisons, he's not what I'd call a sabermatician, he's more a writer than an analyst.My jaw dropped because I thought Tim was a numbers guy.
While I agree that scoring more runs is needed, I believe improvements made by Bruce, Votto, Encarnacion and perhaps Phillips will help offset that some as well. I am not opposed to bringing Dunn back (although if he won't play first base or play for 7 million in LF.... best of luck elsewhere), but I don't think him leaving is going to kill this team's offense as long as if doesn't mean Corey Patterson gets a starting gig or something.
Is it possible that his BABIP would come up but the other parts of his game would go down? Dunn's numbers are messed up simply because of what Chris Welch says everytime he goes to the plate. Dunn's swing is the longest in baseball....period. And he pulls off of everything which means he no longer has plate coverage.
He will almost certainly strike out over 100 times by the All-Star break, and as I have said before, if there are 5 tools, Dunn has ONLY one. His game, if you want to call it that, is the moon-shot. He and/or his agent, it seems to me, have decided to market him as a gate draw, as everyone wants to see how far a human being can actually hit a baseball.
Unfornately, the rules award on one stripe for the ball hit over the fence, no matter how far it actually travels.
Do the Reds pay 15-20 million a year for one tool?.....insane, unless that tool is winning 20 games (as a starting pitcher silly) a year.
I don't care what stats you use to frame it, Dunn is Dave Kingman II and unless somebody wakes him up and tells him to play BASEBALL again, he will finish his career as DK II. A real shame.
I'm not pro-Dunn or Anti-Dunn, I'm Dunn tired and Dunn frustrated.
Part of me wants to see him with the Reds long term just to see him provide homers and rbis. But then part of me wants to see what the extra money and better defense in lf would bring the team in return with just an average lf who batted righthanded.
I wonder if Jocketty has a master plan or is just waiting for fate to decide what happens to the Reds LF?
The Dave Kingman bait again. Here we go.
It's a little different though because while GIDP is "opportunity dependent" it's also batted ball tendency-dependent. One reason why the lumbering Dunn doesn't GIDP a ton compared to a guy like Phillips (GIDP%=1.6 vs Phillips' GIDP%=3.5) is that Dunn hits more FBs (46.6%) than GBs (33.7%) on average for his career. On the other hand, Brandon Phillips has almost the opposite batted ball tendencies (FB%=34.8; GB%=46.5). So it's more than just opportunity.....
Dunn's FB tendencies is one reason why the shift isn't as effective against him as one might think it could be as well.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Dave Kingman gets lots of play in a Dunn thread, but let's consider how many guys K'd over 100 times in the Kingman era and then the Dunn era.
Let's just use the last 8 years and 75-83
Guys K more these days.Code:ALL LEAGUES & TEAMS 2000-2008 ALL POSITIONS STRIKEOUTS >= 100 T1 Alex Rodriguez 8 T1 Andruw Jones 8 T1 Pat Burrell 8 T1 Carlos Delgado 8 T1 Bobby Abreu 8 T6 Richie Sexson 7 T6 Derrek Lee 7 T6 Jim Edmonds 7 T6 Alfonso Soriano 7 T6 Jim Thome 7 T6 Mike Cameron 7 T6 Geoff Jenkins 7 T13 Troy Glaus 6 T13 Torii Hunter 6 T13 Brad Wilkerson 6 T13 Preston Wilson 6 T13 Jeromy Burnitz 6 T13 Jacque Jones 6 T13 Jose Cruz Jr. 6 T13 Sammy Sosa 6 T13 Lance Berkman 6 T13 Adam Dunn 6 T23 Jermaine Dye 5 T23 Jeff Bagwell 5 T23 Mark Teixeira 5 T23 Jason LaRue 5 T23 Corey Koskie 5 T23 Manny Ramirez 5 T23 Shawn Green 5 ALL LEAGUES & TEAMS 1975-1983 ALL POSITIONS STRIKEOUTS >= 100 T1 Mike Schmidt 8 T1 Reggie Jackson 8 T1 Greg Luzinski 8 4 Dave Kingman 7 5 Omar Moreno 6 T6 Jim Rice 5 T6 George Foster 5 T6 Gorman Thomas 5 T9 Tony Armas 4 T9 Lee May 4 T9 Dale Murphy 4 T9 Ron LeFlore 4 T9 Bobby Bonds 4 T14 Rick Monday 3 T14 Lance Parrish 3 T14 Claudell Washington 3 T14 Doug Rader 3 T14 Tony Perez 3 T14 Willie Horton 3 T14 Willie Stargell 3 T14 Gene Tenace 3 T22 Dwight Evans 2 T22 Ken Singleton 2 T22 Andre Dawson 2 T22 Roy Smalley 2 T22 Butch Hobson 2 T22 Mookie Wilson 2 T22 Gary Alexander 2 T22 George Scott 2 T22 Dwayne Murphy 2 T22 Larry Parrish 2 T22 Jason Thompson 2 T22 Dave Hostetler 2 T22 Bobby Grich 2 T22 Jerry Martin 2 T22 Jeff Burroughs 2 T22 Dave Parker 2 T22 Gary Gaetti 2 T22 Chili Davis 2
Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please. |