YOUR Top 40 Prospects

[mdccclxix]

First, I'll admit I was pleased to read that Terry Reynolds at least gave lip service to my own bent in examining "prospects" in relation to the organization as a whole:

"For me it's, what are you doing? How did they perform this past summer? What do we think of them as an organization and where can they help us and WHEN can they help us."

Besides the fact that while creating my list I only considered last year's performance I was relieved to read this.

I think this says a lot about staying practical about players, as well as setting up a structure where scouting reports and signing bonuses are not stunting development, causing animosity, creating lazy check collectors, etc. Turns out the Reds are just about as "what have you done for me lately" as many fans.

Throughout the voting for Redszone's prospects, I favored Maloney in the early going (I think I might have started voting for him at 5 - a bull headed mistake as I was forming my ideas). I believe more in a meritocracy (results) and like to avoid the "Wily Mo" effect of clinging to what "should" happen. Bleh!

I'm not afraid of projections and scouting reports, but miserable failure is just too strong of a sign to ignore (Duran, etc.) They've got to PROVE IT.

I feel this list is a pretty good, concurrent, list of both who can help the Reds and when they can help them. If a player was no higher than Dayton last year, it almost certainly hurt them in my list. Only players like Soto or Mesoraco could fight past their stations due to overwhelming youth and / or likely high expectations not utterly ruined - yet.

Where possible, I took SP's over position players. I also tried to prize defense when comparing two close players (although this was after the more measurable offensive numbers were in place so it's not perfect).

1 Travis Wood
2 Todd Frazier
3 Michael Leake
4 Zachary Cozart
5 Yonder Alonso
6 Juan Francisco
7 Matt Maloney
8 Chris Heisey
9 Devin Mesoraco
10 Bradley Boxberger
11 Enerio Del Rosario
12 Matthew Klinker
13 Christopher Valaika
14 Daniel Tuttle
15 Neftali Soto
16 Matt Fairel
17 Josh Fellhauer
18 Logan Ondrusek
19 Samuel Lecure
20 Ezequiel Infante
21 Jordan Smith
22 Miguel Rojas
23 Tyler Cline
24 Yorman Rodriguez
25 Mariekson Gregorius
26 Mark Serrano
27 Billy Hamilton
28 David Sappelt
29 Juan Silva
30 Mace Thurman
31 Donnie Joseph
32 Wes Bankston
33 Lance Janke
34 Nathan Driessen
36 Daniel Dorn
35 Byron Wiley
37 Brian Pearl
38 Philippe-Alexandre Valiquette
39 Cody Puckett
40 Juan Duran

Wood was the statistical leader and most complete option available. He's surprisingly my #1. I wasn't that convinced, but I'm really trusting this model I came up with for the sake of the exercise.

Frazier was alone at #2.

The next 5 were lumped together and sorted out according to position (SP, SS), then defense (Alonso, Juan). It didn't bother me seeing Alonso at #5 because the world will have to continue to wait for his power to show and defense to improve.

Cozart = great d + efficient batting, and seeing him at # 4 was another delightful twist in perspective for me. I'd have thought him around 7 or 8.

Anyway, thoughts?

[Mario-Rijo]

My 1st thought is wow, interesting rankings. My second thought and quickly is bravo for putting in the work and for coming up with some way of appreciating something other than simply ranking their ceilings/production. I don't know that I agree with your rankings but I think you have an argument here with the way you have done them. Perhaps it's not how most of the "experts" would do it but it has some merit IMO.

[roborobj]

I don't understand why Ben Jukich doesn't get more respect as a pitcher. He may only top off at 87 mph, but he throws a lot of different pitches to keep batters off balance and seems to have good control. He is leading in the Dominican Winter League with the lowest ERA of 1.71 for starters.

[dougdirt]

I don't understand why Ben Jukich doesn't get more respect as a pitcher. He may only top off at 87 mph, but he throws a lot of different pitches to keep batters off balance and seems to have good control. He is leading in the Dominican Winter League with the lowest ERA of 1.71 for starters.

Because guys of his ilk are all over the minor leagues and hardly any of them go on to major league success outside of a being a loogy. Until guys like that actually have success at the major league level, they will always be questioned.

[mace]

I think your rankings have a lot of merit. I was glad to see that your system still permitted you to acknowledge the promise of such young folks as Tuttle, Cline, Driessen, etc. (I would have also included Jacob Johnson, but whatever.) To me, that GCL-level cluster of young pitching is an underrated strength of the organization. At any rate, md, you've fast become a substantive contributor to this forum, and thanks for that.

[Kc61]

Interesting list.

As I read these lists, it's pretty clear that the Reds will be strong at AAA and in the lower minors next year, but the High A and AA levels could be weak -- unless there are some trades.

They might consider starting Mike Leake at AAA. That way he could play with a very good team and develop as a winner. If they start him at High A or AA, he may wind up on a terrible ballclub, which sometimes hurts a prospect.

[roborobj]

Because guys of his ilk are all over the minor leagues and hardly any of them go on to major league success outside of a being a loogy. Until guys like that actually have success at the major league level, they will always be questioned.

Yet, if you look at last year's stats of Matt Maloney, Sam LeCure and Ben Jukich, they are very similar. Almost identical. Why are the other two rated so highly?

[dougdirt]

Yet, if you look at last year's stats of Matt Maloney, Sam LeCure and Ben Jukich, they are very similar. Almost identical. Why are the other two rated so highly?

They can hit 90 MPH or better. Projection. Maloney isn't a hard thrower, but he also works in the upper 80's and can hit 91 MPH from time to time. Lecure works 89-91 and can hit higher every now and again. Guys like that have more success on a whole than guys who top out at 87 MPH.

[roborobj]

They can hit 90 MPH or better. Projection. Maloney isn't a hard thrower, but he also works in the upper 80's and can hit 91 MPH from time to time. Lecure works 89-91 and can hit higher every now and again. Guys like that have more success on a whole than guys who top out at 87 MPH.

That's if they stay healthy.

[dougdirt]

That's if they stay healthy.

Well that applies to everyone doesn't it?

[mdccclxix]

My 1st thought is wow, interesting rankings. My second thought and quickly is bravo for putting in the work and for coming up with some way of appreciating something other than simply ranking their ceilings/production. I don't know that I agree with your rankings but I think you have an argument here with the way you have done them. Perhaps it's not how most of the "experts" would do it but it has some merit IMO.

I think that was about my first reaction as well. I was touting Maloney over Wood at one point, now he's #1? Del Rosario #11?

What I did was use a mix of

-age relative to their level. Not many players are 3 years ahead of schedule, or even 2. 1 year ahead is quite something. So, Wood in AAA at 22 is a bonus for him. Heisey at AAA at 24 is a minus. Doesn't seem fair, but it's just one thing to look at, put a number on. The best, very best prospects, are usually ahead of schedule...

- level - plainly, that A ballers were deducted and AAA ballers were rewarded. This one goes out to the veterans. Heisey just picked a point right back up.

- ops for hitters / k:bb rate for pitchers - they aren't the tell all, but they are what I am comfortable using to determine generic value. Over 800 ops was a point, as was over 3:1 k:bb rate, for example.

- draft position as a scouting measure - there's no way I'm as keyed into scouting reports as I would need to be. Besides, you're always hearing this guys got good stuff from one scout and that he's garbage from the next. So where was he picked? It's like looking at a racing program for Secretariat's great grand kid. : Ya gotta hope some of this goes forward. It's my projection variable. *I adjusted for big money international guys that I found as near top round talent, but have no hope of determining this for the dozens of others so I gave them a neutral score.

- fielding position - I have SP's, SS and C as 1 point, then CF, 3b, RF, as 0 points, and 2b, 1b and LF as -1 point along with RP's.

- Secret sauce! - I just needed to add a touch of complex (perhaps garbage) calculations for my own curiosity. I think it turned out OK, as the cream rose to the top of the results. ISOP, K rates, stuff I've learned from Doug and others basically, kind of mish mashed to see what shook. In the end this was my performance variable more so than the ops / k:bb earlier.

- defensive adjustments / other common sense - when it was over there were some things that needed tweeking based on circumstance, PT, awards, what limited consensus stuff I've heard on players, etc.

In the end, I primarily preserved what the sum of all these values were and sorted it Z-A and that was (mostly) it.

So in summary, I gave values (ranging from -2 to 2 or from -1 to 1) to variables that covered:

1) a players precociousness (age/competition)
2) a players experience and achievement (minors level)
3) a players counted performance (ops, k:bb)
4) a players efficient performance (iso, k:bb, etc)
5) a players position on defense
6) a players draft spot / reputation / scouted value

It was a fun project, just wanted to see what I could come up with in terms of a complete picture based on numbers. Who knows, maybe Wood really becomes our #3!

Thanks for sharing your thoughts and/or reading.

One last thing I found interesting...I left considered all players who were in the minors for the Reds last year and naturally had to take some out who are no longer Reds prospects. Had I not, or if things were somewhat different, here would've been my top 4:

1 Zachary Stewart
2 Travis Wood
3 David Bailey
4 Todd Frazier

[mdccclxix]

I think your rankings have a lot of merit. I was glad to see that your system still permitted you to acknowledge the promise of such young folks as Tuttle, Cline, Driessen, etc. (I would have also included Jacob Johnson, but whatever.) To me, that GCL-level cluster of young pitching is an underrated strength of the organization. At any rate, md, you've fast become a substantive contributor to this forum, and thanks for that.

Thanks for the kind words!

Guys like Driessen and Tuttle either performed well (small samples), were really young, or drafted pretty high, or all three. More than enough to overcome their distance from the bigs.

[DaytonDave]

Does anyone have any info on the DSL SS Junior Arias? He wasn't mentioned on any of the lists, but held his own in the DSL this year as a 17yo.

[DaytonDave]

Still haven't been able to find any info on Arias, but I did come across this prospect list tonight:

http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/

I found the Francisco/Frazier discussion interesting

[dougdirt]

Still haven't been able to find any info on Arias, but I did come across this prospect list tonight:

There isn't much out there to be found on Arias. Until he plays in the States, the information is going to be extremely limited.