First off, lots of good stuff here, M2 and stock.I don't think teams want to be in the business of drafting and developing arms for other teams, which is what happens with top HS pitchers as often as not. In fact, I'd rather be the team that trades for them four or five years down the road after the team that drafted them get disillusioned. It would cost less and I'd have a clearer idea of what I'm buying. The draft acts as a trigger to get a kid some notice, expectations get inflated, trough of disillusionment hits, someone then takes the time to get the kid truly ready, then he reaches a productive plateau.
Again, in my view, the issue of discarding a quality young arm to another organization is a development issue, not a drafting issue. You're absolutely correct that it does happen that teams get impatient and cut a premium arm loose. It happens with draft picks and Latin American free agents (Pedro Martinez, Francisco Liriano, etc.). But to say that these arms always come cheaper than drafting them (let's say a 2 million dollar investment) is debatable, and to assume that your team will be able to identify that arm and then find a match to trade for that arm is wishful thinking.
Quality starting pitching is very tough to find. For a team like the Reds, outbidding others for quality starters in free agency is pretty much out of the question. That leaves the trade market and the draft, and I happen to be of the opinion that the reward associated with drafting the top high school arm in the nation -- if you can identify him with relative ease -- is often (not always) well worth the risk. You have to exercise some patience (as, for example, the Royals have done with Greinke), sure, but the potential payoff merits that.
Could be another volatile draft season on Redszone.
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Originally Posted by redsfandan
