Who is the better CF prospect right now, Heisey or Stubbs?

[Redman15]

Heisey gets my vote.
Southern League POW May 25th - 31st.
Chris Heisey, Carolina
.555 (15-27), 7 R, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 2 BB, 1 SO, 2 SB
Reds prospect Chris Heisey collected three hits four times this week and has recorded at least one hit in his last nine games. His two homers came in consecutive contests May 29 and 30. Heisey raised his average 20 points this week, and now leads the league in batting average, hits, slugging percentage, extra-base hits and runs scored.

[GIDP]

Stubbs imo. Its decently close though.

[Rojo]

Stubbs anemic slugging has always made me sceptical.

If he's a true plus centerifeld, it's Heisey.

[fearofpopvol1]

Seems like most people think Stubbs is better. I don't know. I know CF is a an elite defensive position and Stubbs is elite there, but I think I'd take a slight drop in defense if the offense made up for it. And it looks like Heisey is that guy.

[Scrap Irony]

Depends on how slight the defensive drop and how big a bump the offense might bring. I do know Stubbs has shown a propensity for playing well in AAA and Heisey doesn't have that.

[corkedbat]

Depends on how slight the defensive drop and how big a bump the offense might bring. I do know Stubbs has shown a propensity for playing well in AAA and Heisey doesn't have that.

Pretty much my feelings too. For now, I give the slightedge to Stubbs becuase of his defense and a pretty solid season in AAA. I'm not saying Heisey can't or won't do it in AAA by any means, but I'd like to see 200-250 AAA ABs against some veterans who have picked up tricks in the majors in addition to top prospects, before I move him ahead of Drew.

We were all singing Dorns praises last year for his AA performance and now look at him. Let's see som AA performance from Chirs before we make any judgements, but let's see it soon. Move him up now and let he and Stubbs take turns in CF. I won't hurt either of them to spend some time in LF & RF. best they get used to the routes in Louisvulle than the GAB or other major league park. They need to be versatile.

[Mario-Rijo]

Right now as in up to this point? Heisey easy, of course I tend to look at things a little bit differently than most. Going forward? Probably (hopefully) Stubbs if he continues to make the neccessary adjustments going forward, if he doesn't give me Heisey.

[OnBaseMachine]

Baseball Prospectus has a Q&A up with Drew Stubbs. Sorry, I can only post the free part...

Prospectus Q&A
Drew Stubbs
by David Laurila

Cincinnati's center fielder of the future is nearly ready. Drew Stubbs may not be putting up the power numbers many expected of him when he was taken eighth overall in the 2006 draft, but the 24-year-old University of Texas product still promises to upgrade Dusty Baker's lineup when he arrives in the Queen City. Not only is Stubbs widely regarded as the best defensive outfielder in the minor leagues, he brings to the table a component that has been sorely lacking at the top of the Reds' batting order: an ability to get on base. An academic All-American at the University of Texas, Stubbs came into the weekend hitting .290/.386/.426 with 18 stolen bases for Triple-A Louisville.

---

David Laurila: I first interviewed you in spring training of 2007. How much have you changed since that time?

Drew Stubbs: The past, I guess, year and a half has given me a chance to gain more experience, including games at the upper levels of the minor leagues. I've played with some older guys who have been around for awhile, and you can just learn a lot by being around them. You can pick up some tricks of the trade, learning a lot of the little things about the game, and I think I've been able to do that. It has helped me in my path to getting to the big leagues.

DL: Is there any one part of your game that you feel has developed more than the rest?

Here's the link for those of you who subscribe to BP:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=9019

[bucksfan2]

Stubbs, and I don't think its as close as many think.

There is a reason why Stubbs was drafted as high as he was, and there is a reason he has continued to move through the minors even when his numbers didn't "look good". IMO he has two things that make him an every day CF in the bigs. His ability to play GG defense as well as his good OBP. He may never hit as well as many had hoped and his slugging may not be as good as many expect it to be but if he can continue to play great defense and find his way to 1b then he will be a good everyday CF.

IMO Stubbs is developing the exact same way WK had envisioned him when he drafted him. His path to the majors has been slower than many college draftees, but I think the FO knew that.

Heisey's issue becomes whether he can surpass Stubbs. Can his offensive numbers overcome Stubbs better defense and similar OBP? It becomes especially more difficult if the Reds think Stubbs power will develop as he matures and gets stronger.

[Brutus]

Stubbs, and I don't think its as close as many think.

There is a reason why Stubbs was drafted as high as he was, and there is a reason he has continued to move through the minors even when his numbers didn't "look good". IMO he has two things that make him an every day CF in the bigs. His ability to play GG defense as well as his good OBP. He may never hit as well as many had hoped and his slugging may not be as good as many expect it to be but if he can continue to play great defense and find his way to 1b then he will be a good everyday CF.

IMO Stubbs is developing the exact same way WK had envisioned him when he drafted him. His path to the majors has been slower than many college draftees, but I think the FO knew that.

Heisey's issue becomes whether he can surpass Stubbs. Can his offensive numbers overcome Stubbs better defense and similar OBP? It becomes especially more difficult if the Reds think Stubbs power will develop as he matures and gets stronger.

You make some very good points. Thing is, Heisey is doing all those things Stubbs is doing (getting on base, showing great defense) but he's doing it while already showing some of the power that the Reds think Stubbs might develop.

Perhaps Stubbs' ceiling is higher. But right now, I think Heisey is the more well-rounded player.

[Mario-Rijo]

You make some very good points. Thing is, Heisey is doing all those things Stubbs is doing (getting on base, showing great defense) but he's doing it while already showing some of the power that the Reds think Stubbs might develop.

Perhaps Stubbs' ceiling is higher. But right now, I think Heisey is the more well-rounded player.

No question and all other things being equal Heisey's advantage at the plate is worth a little more than Stubb's advantage in the field.

[bucksfan2]

No question and all other things being equal Heisey's advantage at the plate is worth a little more than Stubb's advantage in the field.

What do you consider being equal?

*Disclaimer* I have not seen either of these two players play.

By looking at the stats Heisey's only clear offensive advantages are BA and SLG. IMO what is very impressive about Stubbs is that his OBP has always been 80-100 points higher than his BA. Good plate zone judgment doesn't slump. When you are going bad you are still able to draw walks. Stubbs has always been able to find his way to first base, at a good clip. It also looks like Stubbs has an advantage on the base paths but by how much is anybody's idea.

I agree with Brutus that right now Stubbs has a higher ceiling but Heisey is a better all around player. But I think the question really is among all factors, where is the difference, and how much do you value that difference. How much of a difference is there between an above average CF and a great CF? How much of difference is there between a Minor OBP of .369 and .378. Are both leadoff hitters? Can Heisey player a corner position?

The Reds actually have a bad problem right now. It appears if they have two legit CF's in their system at AAA and AA ball. A good question to ask is the only reason Stubbs is one level head of Heisey draft position?

[Brutus]

What do you consider being equal?

*Disclaimer* I have not seen either of these two players play.

By looking at the stats Heisey's only clear offensive advantages are BA and SLG. IMO what is very impressive about Stubbs is that his OBP has always been 80-100 points higher than his BA. Good plate zone judgment doesn't slump. When you are going bad you are still able to draw walks. Stubbs has always been able to find his way to first base, at a good clip. It also looks like Stubbs has an advantage on the base paths but by how much is anybody's idea.

I agree with Brutus that right now Stubbs has a higher ceiling but Heisey is a better all around player. But I think the question really is among all factors, where is the difference, and how much do you value that difference. How much of a difference is there between an above average CF and a great CF? How much of difference is there between a Minor OBP of .369 and .378. Are both leadoff hitters? Can Heisey player a corner position?

The Reds actually have a bad problem right now. It appears if they have two legit CF's in their system at AAA and AA ball. A good question to ask is the only reason Stubbs is one level head of Heisey draft position?

I posted earlier in this thread, that if you use Minor League Equivalencies to bring Stubbs & Heisey to the same level, Heisey's stats equal about 21 more runs created spread out over 500 plate appearances. That means, if you want to judge value of difference, the question becomes how many more runs saved over that period of time do you think Stubbs would save over Heisey in the outfield? If in fact Heisey is also as good with the glove as they say, my hunch would be you're not looking at more than 5-10 runs over the course of a season - which still leaves Heisey more valuable at this juncture.

Of course, that does not take into account what these two players might be doing five years from now. But I guess that's where the hard part comes in - weighing production against potential.

[dougdirt]

I posted earlier in this thread, that if you use Minor League Equivalencies to bring Stubbs & Heisey to the same level, Heisey's stats equal about 21 more runs created spread out over 500 plate appearances. That means, if you want to judge value of difference, the question becomes how many more runs saved over that period of time do you think Stubbs would save over Heisey in the outfield? If in fact Heisey is also as good with the glove as they say, my hunch would be you're not looking at more than 5-10 runs over the course of a season - which still leaves Heisey more valuable at this juncture.

Of course, that does not take into account what these two players might be doing five years from now. But I guess that's where the hard part comes in - weighing production against potential.

Of course MLE's are just guessed and often aren't even close to being what actually happens. I mean look at how much Danny Dorn has struggled after OPSing .915 in AA last season.

Its going to eventually work itself out.

[Brutus]

Of course MLE's are just guessed and often aren't even close to being what actually happens. I mean look at how much Danny Dorn has struggled after OPSing .915 in AA last season.

Its going to eventually work itself out.

I'm not trying to suggest they're the holy grail. However, Heisey is outperforming where Stubbs was at AA and he's outperforming him now. I'm just trying to do the best I can at fairly comparing the two. MLE's aren't perfect, but they have a fairly high rate of successful translation. Again, I am not trying to suggest they're fail proof. I'm merely trying to most fairly compare their stat lines.