Who is the better CF prospect right now, Heisey or Stubbs?

[bucksfan2]

I posted earlier in this thread, that if you use Minor League Equivalencies to bring Stubbs & Heisey to the same level, Heisey's stats equal about 21 more runs created spread out over 500 plate appearances. That means, if you want to judge value of difference, the question becomes how many more runs saved over that period of time do you think Stubbs would save over Heisey in the outfield? If in fact Heisey is also as good with the glove as they say, my hunch would be you're not looking at more than 5-10 runs over the course of a season - which still leaves Heisey more valuable at this juncture.

Of course, that does not take into account what these two players might be doing five years from now. But I guess that's where the hard part comes in - weighing production against potential.

Bingo. I couldn't agree with you more on the bolded part. Minor league stats are one thing, how they translate into MLB stats are a whole different animal.

[dougdirt]

I'm not trying to suggest they're the holy grail. However, Heisey is outperforming where Stubbs was at AA and he's outperforming him now. I'm just trying to do the best I can at fairly comparing the two. MLE's aren't perfect, but they have a fairly high rate of successful translation. Again, I am not trying to suggest they're fail proof. I'm merely trying to most fairly compare their stat lines.

Of course Heisey is also older than Stubbs in AA too. Its just too much of a what if game for MLE's. Some guys transition well to different levels of skill than others. I don't have much doubt in my mind that Heisey can't hit in AAA yesterday because he has a strong skillset of plate discipline and contact that generally translates well from level to level. With that said, whats going on with Heisey in June. 2 walks and 8 strikeouts? Its been the opposite of that for the rest of the year.

[Mario-Rijo]

Of course Heisey is also older than Stubbs in AA too. Its just too much of a what if game for MLE's. Some guys transition well to different levels of skill than others. I don't have much doubt in my mind that Heisey can't hit in AAA yesterday because he has a strong skillset of plate discipline and contact that generally translates well from level to level. With that said, whats going on with Heisey in June. 2 walks and 8 strikeouts? Its been the opposite of that for the rest of the year.

He's probably tired from running the bases so much.

[OnBaseMachine]

I love the problem of having too many good players at one position. It's a great problem to have.

You have Drew Stubbs, who Baseball Prospectus says may be the best defensive outfielder in all of the minor leagues. He has a good eye at the plate and runs the bases very well. The only knock is he doesn't hit a lot of homers yet, though he's hitting plenty of doubles. Then you have Chris Heisey, who isn't quite the defender that Stubbs is, but is a solid defender and is arguably a better all around hitter right now.

Then there's Yorman Rodriguez, whose tools draw comparisons to superstars like Eric Davis, Cesar Cedeno, and Carlos Beltran, though he's probably at least five years away from the majors, assuming he pans out.

Let's hope the Reds continue adding talent and depth to the organization and further contributing to this problem.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Of course Heisey is also older than Stubbs in AA too.

I think Stubbs is 2 months older than Heisey. Not that it makes much difference. They came out the same year and are roughly the same age.

Stubbs: 10-4-84
Heisey: 12-14-84

*edit: Forget it.....I see what you are talking about now. Heisey is a year older than Stubbs was when he was in AA. My bad.

[Mario-Rijo]

So Stubbs ceiling is maybe a better version of Mike Cameron but still a ways off? Heisey maybe a Mark Kotsay type but perhaps almost there? That's about how I see it.

[fearofpopvol1]

So Stubbs ceiling is maybe a better version of Mike Cameron but still a ways off? Heisey maybe a Mark Kotsay type but perhaps almost there? That's about how I see it.

I don't get the Stubbs/Cameron comparison other than the glove aspect. Stubbs will never have the power of Mike Cameron nor will he hit as many home runs.

[bucksfan2]

So Stubbs ceiling is maybe a better version of Mike Cameron but still a ways off? Heisey maybe a Mark Kotsay type but perhaps almost there? That's about how I see it.

Does Heisey have a wife who looks like Kotsay's? If so then I would rank him higher than Stubbs. :

[dougdirt]

I don't get the Stubbs/Cameron comparison other than the glove aspect. Stubbs will never have the power of Mike Cameron nor will he hit as many home runs.

There is the glove, lots of walks and for a while, lots of strikeouts. There is also the raw power aspect of things, where the two players rate similarly. Cameron however uses his power in games better than Stubbs does. Drew has the power though to be a 25 HR guy. He just needs to figure out how to use his power better. That sometimes comes with age. With a guy like Stubbs I think it comes down to knowing when he should swing for the fences and when he shouldn't. Right now, he isn't really swinging for them.

[dougdirt]

Does Heisey have a wife who looks like Kotsay's? If so then I would rank him higher than Stubbs. :

Why don't I know who Mark Kotsay is married to?

[camisadelgolf]

For a good time, google Jamie Kotsay.

[WebScorpion]

I'm hoping to see Stubbs manning CF in Cincinnati next year and never seeing another center fielder at the position for years to come. If this team is truly being built on pitching and defense, that's what you'll see. Heisey is a great center fielder, but he will never be a better defender than Stubbs. If Stubbs continues to get on base and play elite defense, you plug him in at the top of the lineup and never look back. Of course, with the additional power, there's nothing to keep Heisey from being an elite fielding left fielder. To me, the choices are really 3rd base (Frazier or EE), 1st base (Alonso or Votto), and LF (Votto, Frazier, or Heisey).

[reds44]

Stubbs. Better tools, and they are the same age and Stubbs is at a higher level.

[mth123]

I like Home Runs so I'll take Heisey. So far, rumors or Stubbs power are greatly exaggerated.

I do like Stubbs though and think the Reds are in a good position. With the rest of the division failing as much as the Reds right now, opportunity is knocking and one of these guys probably needs to go as a major piece to a deal. The best part is if the Reds choose to keep the wrong one, either could probably still platoon with Dickerson and provide the Reds with decent production on offense and defense for little dollars over the next several years. I'd be inclined to deal the one that other teams most covet (and provides the best return) while moving forward with the other - all the while clutching my platoon security blanket in case my keeper disappoints.

[fearofpopvol1]

There is the glove, lots of walks and for a while, lots of strikeouts. There is also the raw power aspect of things, where the two players rate similarly. Cameron however uses his power in games better than Stubbs does. Drew has the power though to be a 25 HR guy. He just needs to figure out how to use his power better. That sometimes comes with age. With a guy like Stubbs I think it comes down to knowing when he should swing for the fences and when he shouldn't. Right now, he isn't really swinging for them.

I don't think Stubbs' power will ever resemble 25 HR power. His build is nothing like Cameron's either. I like Stubbs...but I would be very surprised if ever has a season where he hits more than 20HRs.