The Reds have already been mentioned as being at least talking to the M's about Lee by more than one reliable source. It's his duty as journalist to at least mentioned what he has heard from other reporters. He's free then to say that he doesn't put much faith in them, or whatever, but he needs to mention every team that has been mentioned as having interest in Lee.
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein
Here's the thing about trading someone from the 40 man roster that in theory could help the 25 man roster.
Their impact has to be subtracted from the impact of the upgrade coming back. This is an extreme example but trading Leake for Lee would really be a gigantic overpay for the magnitude of upgrade.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Here was my thinking, although this was before Wood was promoted and had such a good start.
Someone said Lee could get 20 starts here, so I used that as an example.
Of those 20 games, if the offense and defense does not vanish, Lee could probably go 13-7. That's reasonable, IMO.
If we went with Homer/LeCure.. what would be a reasonable projection for Reds' wins in those games.. maybe 7-13?
That's a 6 game swing.
Although Wood might be able to do better than Homer/LeCure.
I really don't want to count on Volquez doing much better, as he is coming off an injury.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
From Jayson Stark's latest column:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/0...tkins-lee.html•The Reds "are more interested than they're letting on" in Lee, while the Yankees also continue to monitor the Mariners' left-hander.
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?...26id%3d5349927
Go get him. That's all I've got.
We all talk ourselves into our own prospects. Cliff Lee gives the Reds a chance at a WORLD SERIES. Seriously, a world series. He's that good.
The guy has a 15.6/1 K/BB ratio.
Re-read that sentence.
This isn't college football. It literally means nothing in the MLB how much press you get. It doesn't matter at all in professional sports. Only matters in college football, where rankings matter. Why worry about what an ESPN pundit has to say? Even worse, its on Colin freakin Cowherd. Guy makes a living off just being a loud mouth. I'd rather fly under the radar.
If the Reds want Lee, they'll get him. The Reds have a lot of pieces and they have a capable GM.
Follow me on twitter: http://twitter.com/ShaneHorning
Grieneke or Haren? I'd move one or two. For a rental like Lee? I keep all of them. Here is why...
In 2003 17 different pitchers made starts for the Reds
Ryan Dempster
Paul Wilson
John Riedling
Jimmy Haynes
Brian Reith
Chris Reitsma
Danny Graves
Jimmy Anderson
John Bale
Jeff Austin
Seth Etherton
Josh Hall
Jose Acevedo
Dan Serafini
Scott Randell
Todd Van Poppel
Aaron Harang
4 came out of the Reds farm system. Just piles and piles of crap there.
In 2004 it was 11.
Wilson
Harang
Acevedo
Van Poppel
Haynes
Brandon Claussen
Josh Hancock
Luke Hudson
Jung Keun Bong
Jesus Sanchez
Joe Valentine
1 came out of the Reds System. Still just alot of crap.
In 2005 in was 9.
Eric Milton
Harang
Ortiz
Claussen
Wilson
Hudson
Matt Belisle
Randy Keisler
Elizardo Ramirez
0 was from the Reds Farm System. 1 ML avg starter in that group/
!n 2006 it was back up to 11.
Milton
Harang
Claussen
Ramirez
Belisle
Bronson Arroyo
Kyle Loshe
Joe Mays
Chris Michalak
Justin Germano
Sun-Woo Kim
0 from the Farm System. 2 ML Avg Starters in that group.
So in 3 years, 1 developed farm hand (Acevedo) made a start for the ML club,
In 2007 it was 10.
Arroyo
Harang
Belisle
Milton
Ramirez
Bobby Livingston
Phillip Dumatrait
Tom Shearn
Kirk Saarloos
Homer Bailey
1 was from the Reds Farm System. 2 ML avg starters once again.
2008 it was 10.
Arroyo
Harang
Bailey
Ramon Ramirez
Belisle
Josh Fogg
Edison Volquez
Johny Cueto
Adam Pettyjohn
Daryl Thompson
3 were from the Farm System 3 ML Avg starters in that group.
in 2009 it was 9.
Arroyo
Harang
Volquez
Bailey
Cueto
Micah Owings
Kip Wells
Justin Lehr
Matt Maloney
2 were from the Reds Farm system... 5 ML Avg starters in that group
In 2010, so far... it's 7 with 8 on the way (Volquez)
Arroyo
Harang
Cueto
Leake
Bailey
Sam Lecure
Travis Wood
5 from the farm system. 5 ML avg starters in that group. Soon to be 6. History dictates that this franchise needs 9 to 11 starters a year. This year seems a bit different, so this season would be the aberration. So you trade for Lee and give up Wood. At the end of the season. You let Lee walk for picks. Decline both Arroyo and Harang.
Your left with,
Cueto
Volquez (on inning restrictions)
Leake (on inning restrictions)
Bailey (on inning restrictions)
Chapman (on inning restrictions)
Maloney
Klinker
LeCure are your AAA fall backs. Not really reassuring.
After that you have nothing. So now you get back into the Josh Fogg's of the world because you don't have the pieces to trade for a top shelf pitcher.
So what you need to trade for is what you gave up for 2 months of Lee and dust.
So do you overpay a quickly declining Arroyo or Harang for one more year? Handicap payroll by resigning Lee and lose one or more of Bruce, Votto, Cueto, Volquez or Phillps?
Or trade for a Haren for a Alonso, Valiquette and Bailey?
Haren
Cueto
Volquez
Leake
Wood
Now you only have to monitor 2 pitchers innings instead of 4. AAA now bolsters you with...
Chapman
Maloney
LeCure
Klinker
Even if you switch Chapman and Wood around, it still is a deeper more talented group.
Dan Haren is the guy I try to get. I don't know if he's available, but I would try. He's got a very good contract.
"My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton
If the Reds could get Lee this year, they are serious contenders. I could care less about where that puts the team next year if they have a good shot at the World Series this year.
How long do those memories of 1990 live on? If they win it all this year, it would go a long way to helping fans forget the last 10-15 years. Heck, even the 1999 season is very fondly remembered because they were in the hunt.
I'm not saying you cripple your organization to get him, but with the amount of young players already on the ML roster, I don't see that happening in a deal for Lee.
Do it.
If Jocketty made a move to get Lee and the Reds catch lightning in a bottle and win it all with that mix, the trade would be talked about 25 years from now the same way the Morgan - May deal still is today.
It would be very Jocketty for him to go out and make it happen, again from under the radar like he operated with Chapman.
We'll go down in history as the first society that wouldn't save itself because it wasn't cost effective ~ Kurt Vonnegut
I like the ideas of Lee, Haren, even Oswalt. What I don't like, as I've been saying for a while, is trading Travis Wood. I think that will come--rather quickly--to be looked on as a mistake.
From Buster Olney's twitter:
SEA continues to look for big bat potential in a Lee deal, and 2 guys fit the description:Justin Smoak of TEX and Yonder Alonso of the Reds.
As old friend Peter Gammons notes, Alonso(former No. 1 pick,.713 OPS in minors)is blocked in the CIN organization by MVP cand. Joey Votto.
http://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN
It should be noted around this time last year Yonder Alonso broke the hamate bone in his wrist and that type of injury usually saps power for a year. Alonso has struggled at times this season but he's starting to heat up as his wrist heals. He's working on a streak of three consecutive three hit games, including a grand slam last night. He could be heating up at the perfect time.
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