Most defnitely.. I am not sure Lee is going to be an 8 win swing, but if he was, it would definitely be worth it.
I could see Lee being a 6 win upgrade over our #5 starter (Homer/Malony/whoever). He would also be a huge plus in the playoff rotation.
I was initially tepid about getting Lee, but I have come around (provided the pen is also addressed). It would be nice to avoid trading Wood, but you got to do what you've got to do...
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
Buster Olney posed the question to a guy who works for Accuscore on what win improvements adding Cliff Lee would make for the teams rumored to be involved. It's Insider, but if you have that on espn.com, here is the link:
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?...ter&id=5360166
Basically, he puts acquiring Lee as a +2 in the wins column for the Reds. Not insignificant, but not ground-breaking. The Rangers would be helped most by that guy's forumulations, at a +4 in their wins column.
That is, at least, a baseline for trade reckoning. What is an additional two wins or so worth to the Reds for a rental?
I am guessing that is what Walt is weighing right now.
Buster Olneys blog posted some stats from accuscore saying how many wins lee give each team thats interested in him.
For the reds he gave us two more wins from 89 to 91 and our chances of winning the division went from 42% to 51%.
This obviously doesnt show the affect the trade would have on our players and the other teams. I think our team would be more energized, gaining momentum and winning more games.
wow looks like you just beat me by seconds membengal
Interesting piece, dunner.
Data is a good thing.
The overall playoff odds for the Reds go from 64% to 75% with Lee.
I think you have to look at the business side of Lee, also, not just projected plus wins. If you determine that he is the piece, I think he generates the excitement that starts to pack the house nightly. A pennant race will eventually do that, but around here, probably not until late Aug-early Sept. A deal in the near term might move that bump into July.
I still think a Haren move might be less interesting on the surface, but might generate similar on the field results. The good news is that the Reds are currently not desperate to deal. They currently have hand.
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
Two wins sounds about right, but at the same time, two wins for a playoff contender - and a postseason hammer - has much more value once digging beneath the surface. That's the key to remember when trying to determine if two wins is worth giving up one package vs. another package.
The Reds could deal for Lee and win the deal short-term while losing it long-term. But pennants fly forever, and that is ultimately the most important trump card in Walt's bag of tricks.
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Juan Guzman was a good trade deadline acquistion. David Wells was a good one.Billy Doran was a good one.
I agree that 2006 when we were sort of contending.. those deals were not good.
You've got to remember, a lot of the recent tradeline deals in Bowden's last years kind of sucked because he was unable to add any salary at all. Thus, the Mohlers, etc were trotted in.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
Alonso might be a Top-5 prospect, but unless he can play defense in LF (or unless the NL adopts a DH in the next couple months), his only worth to the club is what he can fetch in a trade.
If you can build a package around him and some B prospects that nets a TOR starter, you do it 100 times out of 100.
Cincinnati Reds: Farm System Champions 2022
I'd disagree with you on Alonso but not on the deal, that package suits me just fine. The third guy should be a guy with some potential (not to be confused with good odds perse' or good potential) as well to make it a lock to happen.
Alonso, Francisco and Watson sounds like a fine package.
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
--Woody Hayes
I just have a hard time believing that popping Lee in the rotation instead of Homer/LeCure/Malony/Wood would only net 2 more wins.
That's really counter-intuitive to the whole idea of trying to get an ace starting pitcher. Lee is "16-20 game winner" material for a contender.. the guys I listed would be lucky to finish with a .500 record on this team.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
This.
I think Dave Sappelt is the perfect guy to dangle in a trade right now as a throw-in. His value is peaking, and CF is the deepest position in the organization. I'd structure a package like this:
GROUP A
Yonder Alonso
GROUP B
Travis Wood
Brad Boxberger
Juan Francisco
Todd Fraizer
Chris Heisey
GROUP C
Dave Sappelt
Felix Perez
Andrew Means
Josh Fellhauer
Sean Henry
Wladimir Balentien
Danny Dorn
Chris Valaika
Drew Sutton
Cody Puckett
Miguel Rojas
Tom Cochran
Scott Carroll
They can pick one from each group- whoever they want. If that's not good enough, move on to Haren or Oswalt.
Go BLUE!!!
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
I am not a "stats guy", but I sure don't mind folks that are. I have not read that person's methodology, nor do I offer any comment on it.
I just thought I would put it out there.
I do note this, +2 in wins is NOT insignificant, as noted above, it improves, by that formulation, the Reds' chance of winning the division by 9% and making the playoffs by 11%.
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