Thursday 09/02/2010 Minor League Updates

[mace]

And one more in the sixth. That's the first time he's gone six innings this year. Gotta like the progress Lotzkar is making. No . . . love.

Scratch the first part of that. The box was wrong. It actually has Lotzkar going the distance. (It was a 7-inning game, and Billings won 2-1.) Anyway, Porforio Martinez pitched the final two innings. Lotzkar went five, as he has done in all three of his Billings starts.

[nemesis]

Gotta like the progress Lotzkar is making. No . . . love.

There is no pitcher now in the system with a better overall arm and stuff in the system than Lotzkar. Him and Gullion should be 1, 2 in the Dayton Rotation next year. I would expect both to be in Lynchburg or wherever High A is next year before the end of the season.

[medford]

while I hope both are in Dayton next year, I would prefer to see both spend the entire season there outside of a potential late season promotion to High should that team be in the playoffs and the dragons not. Coddle thy pitchers.

[nemesis]

while I hope both are in Dayton next year, I would prefer to see both spend the entire season there outside of a potential late season promotion to High should that team be in the playoffs and the dragons not. Coddle thy pitchers.

The nice thing is, for the first time quite possibly in Reds History, they have that luxury. With the glut of ML Ready starters in the bigs under control for 2011 (Cueto, Volquez, Wood, Leake, Bailey, Chapman), with a few more BOR arms in Louisville (Maloney, LeCure, Klinker)and a couple more MOR/BOR arms in Carolina (Carroll, Fairel, Thompson, Buck, Webb) , there is a nice window where they can afford to avoid a Homer type situation with guys in the lower minors.

[lollipopcurve]

a few more BOR arms in Louisville (Maloney, LeCure, Klinker)and a couple more MOR/BOR arms in Carolina (Carroll, Fairel, Thompson, Buck, Webb) ,

Can't share the optimism re: any of these guys as legitimate rotation depth other than Maloney and LeCure. And I think Sam is on the team next year, probably out of the pen.

If Fairel can bounce back from his shoulder issue this year, he may have a shot to be a depth guy, but next year would be too soon to expect that, even if he's healthy. Carroll may have an outside shot come 2012, maybe Buck if he gets healthy (unlikely). People like Klinker, but I remain unconvinced. I would not completely rule out Ben Jukich, however.

All in all, I think it's quite possible that real depth -- circa 2012 -- will come shooting up from the younger ranks.

[medford]

Can't share the optimism re: any of these guys as legitimate rotation depth other than Maloney and LeCure. And I think Sam is on the team next year, probably out of the pen.

If Fairel can bounce back from his shoulder issue this year, he may have a shot to be a depth guy, but next year would be too soon to expect that, even if he's healthy. Carroll may have an outside shot come 2012, maybe Buck if he gets healthy (unlikely). People like Klinker, but I remain unconvinced. I would not completely rule out Ben Jukich, however.

All in all, I think it's quite possible that real depth -- circa 2012 -- will come shooting up from the younger ranks.

That me be a good thing (or acceptable anyways), from a financial standpoint. Right now, the Reds are full of talented, cheap young pitching. If things shake out well and several of the current crop reach their potential, they'll group of them will be getting expensive by 2012, while some will be reaching their last year of arbitration, in other words, its going to be time to fish or cut bait. In the meantime, depth is only needed to fill in during an emergency or hopefully short term injury. They can get by w/ sneaking a few of those as the 5th man for a month or so. In 2012, they're going to need a new crop of young cheap pitching to start taking the places of the guys they don't decide to keep around long term. It would be nice to be able to plug in a Cisco or Guillen when Homer decides to sign a 4 year deal with Houston or Volquez is traded off to Seattle, or what ever other possibilities you can think of.

[OnBaseMachine]

Kevin Goldstein on Kyle Lotzkar:

Kyle Lotzkar, RHP, Reds (Rookie-level Billings): 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 10 K. Still just 20 years old and always had one of the better pure arms in the system; after tons of injuries, including a Tommy John surgery, he's whiffed 53 in 39.1 innings during return.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/minorleagueupdate/

[REDblooded]

complete bummer for me last night... Had seats on the Indians dugout for the game... On the tickets it said 7pm start time... However, I didn't get the notice that the game was moved up an hour to start at 6pm due to the Colts pre-season game... I got off of work at 7, and went straight to the game... Only to find out it was the 6th inning already...

Oh, and early in the game? Terrerro lost his grip on his bat, and it flew into the stands... Right into the seats that we had... Some dude who had moved up from worse seats into ours ended up with one heck of a souvenir...

That being said, I found out in the 7th inning what would've likely happened had I been in those seats when Terrerro lost the grip on his bat a 2nd time, and sent it down the third base line... My fiance ducked towards me, and HELD DOWN MY ARMS with her hands... Had that happened when the bat actually flew into our seats, I'd have been pretty defenseless to stop the bat, and we'd have both been drilled...

[camisadelgolf]

Does anyone else hear the WAAAAAAHHHHHHmbulance? Jeez.

[HokieRed]

Can't share the optimism re: any of these guys as legitimate rotation depth other than Maloney and LeCure. And I think Sam is on the team next year, probably out of the pen.

If Fairel can bounce back from his shoulder issue this year, he may have a shot to be a depth guy, but next year would be too soon to expect that, even if he's healthy. Carroll may have an outside shot come 2012, maybe Buck if he gets healthy (unlikely). People like Klinker, but I remain unconvinced. I would not completely rule out Ben Jukich, however.

All in all, I think it's quite possible that real depth -- circa 2012 -- will come shooting up from the younger ranks.

Agree with this assessment right down the line. LeCure's got the best arm of the group; I'm not even ruling him out of next year's rotation, though I think it's more likely he's in the pen. Jukich has finished strong and poses a real Rule 5 problem; if they don't protect him, he'll go again and this time not come back. Of the others, Fairel and Klinker have outside chances to be bottom of the rotation depth, but with all the people ahead of them, I don't see much opportunity for them. They're blocked above and will be passed from below.

[mth123]

Agree with this assessment right down the line. LeCure's got the best arm of the group; I'm not even ruling him out of next year's rotation, though I think it's more likely he's in the pen. Jukich has finished strong and poses a real Rule 5 problem; if they don't protect him, he'll go again and this time not come back. Of the others, Fairel and Klinker have outside chances to be bottom of the rotation depth, but with all the people ahead of them, I don't see much opportunity for them. They're blocked above and will be passed from below.

Watched Klinker last night. I've lowered my expectations for him. Nothing stood out. You and Lollipop are probably right. By the time the Reds get far enough down the depth chart to get past Lecure and Maloney (double digits I think), there will probably be younger guys who pass some of these guys by. I still have some hope for Fairel and Jordan Hotchkiss might have had a break-through.

I wonder what the Reds see in James Avery to invest an AFL stint in him. I thought the same about Ondrusek a couple years ago and he turned into something useful. Sometimes you don't know about these guys.

[GOYA]

The thing about Klinker is that we've seen him be a quality starter. He's not pitching like he did last year. If Power or someone else can help him get back what we know he has in him, he's a great asset to the Reds org.

But I agree about right now. He's not very good.

[camisadelgolf]

Watched Klinker last night. I've lowered my expectations for him. Nothing stood out. You and Lollipop are probably right. By the time the Reds get far enough down the depth chart to get past Lecure and Maloney (double digits I think), there will probably be younger guys who pass some of these guys by. I still have some hope for Fairel and Jordan Hotchkiss might have had a break-through.

I wonder what the Reds see in James Avery to invest an AFL stint in him. I thought the same about Ondrusek a couple years ago and he turned into something useful. Sometimes you don't know about these guys.

A lot of times, the idea is to drum up trade value. They may be hoping another team sees something in him that could make him useful. He's a left-hander with decent control and velocity, so he's not someone you just want to let go without exploring every possible avenue.