3 Bold Predictions for 2011

[bucksfan2]

Phillips, even with his injury late in the year, improved his WAR from 3 to 4 last year. Either has been trending downward from 3.4 to 2.7 to 2.2 for last year, and that has been a result of both his offense and his defense.

Also, there were 7 above average 2B in the majors last year. There were 7 impact bats who can play outfield in the NL West last year.

Im really not a huge fan of WAR comparisons. IMO they are too skewed towards the defensive end of the game. When you have a good defensive player at a position it will inflate his WAR when comparing it to other players.

There is no doubt that Either has a better bat than Phillips. And if you move Either to LF his defense won't be as big of a hindrance as it was out in RF. I also think its much easier to find a replaceable 2b than it is to find an impact bat. Phillips is an enigma to me. Nice pop for a 2b, great D, not good against RHP, and doesn't carry a good OBP. If you were able to replace Phillips with a guy who wasn't as good on D, didn't have as much power, but had a better OBP it may just fit the lineup better. It may allow you to drop Stubbs in the lineup to take advantage of his power.

Its easy to make comparisons based upon isloating two players. But the reality is its how each player fits into the grand scheme of the team. IMO Either in LF + Valakia/Frazier/etc. at 2B is better than Gomes in LF and Phillips at 2b.

[mth123]

A lot of these predictions are very similar which would make them not so bold IMO. Gave my Reds predictions earlier (at least one is pretty bold I'd say), Here are some for the rest of baseball with an eye on boldness:

AL
1. Adam Dunn leads the AL in HR and RBI and wins the MVP with the White Sox winning the Central.

2. Trevor Cahill wins the AL Cy Young award and leads the A's to the AL West title and ultimately an appearance in the World Series.

3. Derek Jeter quiets his critics with a huge comeback season and wins the AL Batting Title with an average above .350

NL

1. Seth Smith makes a Cargo like improvement in 2011 and teams with Cargo and Tulo as top 10 guys for the MVP award and the Rockies run away with the NL West and best record in the NL.

2. The Cardinals are out of the race by the All Star break and not only is Carpenter dealt at the deadline, but Pujols relents with his threat to void any trade and is dealt to an AL team and the Cards ride the young acquisitions to the best record in the NL in September.

3. The New York Mets fail to win 60 games.

World Series Champ - The Colorado Rockies.

[GOYA]

Homer throws a no-hitter

Francisco hits one in the top row of the RF bleachers

Janish ends the season with above average offense by a SS but won't be qualified because of lack of ABs (ok, that's not so bold)

Close on the second one.

[Rojo]

Oops, wrong year.

[RedsManRick]

The Reds
1. Janish OPSs .700+
2. Votto doesn't hit .300
3. Masset leads the team in saves

Rest of MLB
1. Rays have better record than Yankees
2. Texas barely clears .500
3. Adam Dunn hits 50 HR

And in the 0/6 category, we have RMR!

[cincrazy]

1. The Brewers and Cardinals are both derailed by injuries, poor defense, and the circus that becomes Fielder's and Pujols' contract situations.

2. The Reds win less games than last year, and still take the division before getting handled in the first round of the playoffs by a team with superior starting pitching.

3. The Phillies do NOT win the NL East. Their age and injuries keep them from being the regular season juggernaut most expect, and the "Four Aces" theory goes out the window when Oswalt and Lee have back trouble and prove to be human.

I spent the majority of this thread making fun of the rest of you. Then I stumbled upon this.

Whoops.

[mdccclxix]

Don't feel bad, in a thread like this you're bound to look sour later. We can't all be:

[medford]

1) Bruce jumps out to a hot start, and makes the All Star team. Slows a bit as the season wears on, but still tops 35 homers and a .900 OPS.

2) Aroldis Chapman hits 107 on a juiced up scoreboard radar reading sometime in June or July. A segment of "The art of the game" with Chris Welsh is lated taped where Arolids explains his technique. Chris Carpentar's son is forced to watch.

3) Pujols is traded to the Yankees in by the trading deadline.

1) not exactly true, but he did get the all star bid, 35 homers is w/n range, don't know about the OPS, haven't paid much attention lately, I assume he's not going to make that mark.

2) If a tree falls in the forest and no one is around, does Chris Carpenter complain about the lack of living space for squirrels, birds and his SS's glove selection?

3) 0.5 out of 3 puts me on par with Adam Dunn this season

[Homer Bailey]

1. Jay Bruce hits 42 home runs

2. Juan Francisco hits more home runs than Scott Rolen

3. No Reds starter wins more than 14 games.

1. Not quite. 42? Really? I said that? And I preached about having reasonable expectations for the kid? Shame on me.

2. Get hot Juan! (Last night's homer should count as 2 though).

3. Easy money there.

[Caveat Emperor]

1.) Sam LeCure + Matt Maloney combine for 30 starts.

2.) Drew Stubbs struggles the entire season at the plate and hits under .230.

3.) Devin Mesoraco is the team's everyday catcher, spelled ocassionally by Hanigan, by seasons' end, and Yonder Alonso is the team's starting LF.

1.) Nope -- though Volquez and Wood both tanked, the starts fell to Willis and Leake

2.) Drew Stubbs is at .249 -- he could come close if he went into a huge tailspin, but I think even he's safe from this one.

3.) Whiff on this one as well.

[membengal]

Bruce leaps to 40-HR level, OPS of 1.000 and finishes second in MVP voting.

Gomes defies most of us and turns in a season worthy of starting most of the time, OPSing about .835 and hitting 27 HR.

Sam Lecure, not Mike Leake, is the one who solidifies the rotation in August when one Volquez implodes for the last time and is demoted to the bullpen.

No, no, and no,

[_Sir_Charles_]

And in the 0/6 category, we have RMR!

LOL. Give the man a hand folks! :O)

Btw...don't feel too bad. Look at my sig. LOL.

[RedsManRick]

LOL. Give the man a hand folks! :O)

Btw...don't feel too bad. Look at my sig. LOL.

I did predict Arizona would win the NL West, so I guess this blind squirrel found at least one nut.

[mth123]

1. Juan Francisco gets 300 ABs with 15 HR and an OPS above .800 solidifying the offense and offsetting the drop from Rolen.

2. Paul Janish fails to OPS above .600 and is replaced by Zach Cozart mid season who hits 8 HR and steals 10 bases with an OPS above .750 in the second half with no noticable drop-off defensively.

3. With an eye toward spending his golden years with his family, Walt Jocketty announces his resignation effective at the end of 2011 and Bill Bavasi is named as his replacement.

No because of injury. Yes on Janish and no to Cozart because of injury.

Still TBD on Jocketty.

[Captain Hook]

The Reds
1. Janish OPSs .700+
2. Votto doesn't hit .300
3. Masset leads the team in saves

Rest of MLB
1. Rays have better record than Yankees
2. Texas barely clears .500
3. Adam Dunn hits 50 HR

At least I was only 0-3.We're all pretty bad though.

This should be done every year.If the Reds had actually been good many of the predictions would've come true so it's all their fault.