Originally Posted by
Kingspoint
I wish I did. Just being in the industry at the time, one was privileged to rumors of all sorts. It was necessary to stay ahead of the others. I needed information as to exactly when Topps, Fleer, and Donruss were ready to ship to Costco's, so that I could plan accordingly. Spies and sources were everywhere. Costco would get the first shipments, usually, for a while there. A lot of information would get passed around from dealer to dealer at card shows. Most of the dealers we knew before the baseball card craze even began, so there was good history through the numismatist dealers. The 20% inflation days of Jimmy Carter were a huge boon period to the coin/metals dealers. There was always a pipeline of information that passed through these corridors.
When I first heard that the Price Guide publicists were gathering in Hawaii, something highly illegal, speculation about why became the first topic. Most of us could reason as to why, and from there, it was just a matter of seeing the proof through the publications. It was pretty obvious to us that the prices being posted in Beckett and other Price Guides weren't true reflections of their values. The rumors of the reasons for their meeting (legally, they can't even meet privately....it's akin to what goes on at the WTO behind closed doors) were confirmed.
Before the meeting in Hawaii, we could predict the rises and falls of individual cards and sets before the publishings came out, as they truly reflected the market values. After the meeting, too many of them made no sense. The first repercussion was that we could no longer pay 50% of Beckett High. Customers didn't understand and thought we were being unfair. It only got worse, as 30% became the norm, and then to not embarrass customers too much, instead of paying 10%, which was the true value based on the risk that it could be resold in a timely manner to recoup the investment, we just refused to buy cards. It came to a point to where we'd buy cards we didn't need in order to try to justify that a market existed ourselves, when in reality, none existed....on the wholesale side. No longer were cards a worthy investment for a customer.
Baseball cards went back to being what I preached to every single customer, regardless of age....a hobby, that one should do for the pure enjoyment of doing it, to not look to profit by it.
If you can't confidently sell an item to a retailer for at least 30% of it's retail value, and preferably 50% of it's retail value, then it's being falsely sold at the retail level. Many of these things vary by type of product because of how many times one needs to turn it over in a single year and it's dollar amount, but a good general rule of thumb applies here.