Cardinals: As Good As They Appear?

[Razor Shines]

I was noticing, as I'm sure we all have, the Cards recent rough patch and I wondered what a breakdown of their record looks like. So I did a little research. Against teams with .500 or better record the Cards winning percentage is only 41%. Which I suppose is not really horrible, the Reds percentage against .500 or better teams is a few points higher at 45%. But really telling stat the I discovered was the Cardinals winning percentage against teams with a .520 or better winning percentage it drops all the way down to 33%.

Now I guess I don't really know what all this means, but I do know that playoff teams beat the teams they're supposed to, but once you're in the playoffs everybody's good. I realize that the Reds have a long way to go before we seriously talk about the playoffs but since we're fans and not player and therefore don't have to worry about looking ahead affecting our play, I think it'll be ok for a little discussion. In a Reds-Cards match-up in the playoffs I have a lot of confidence that the Reds would win that series. But then again Pujols just came back and that could eventually spark the rest of their offense. The Cards bullpen is good but I don't really fear their starting rotation.

Anyway just some stuff I enjoyed looking up.

[Phhhl]

All you have to do is run down that roster to realize that the Cardinals are grossly overrated. Their outfield borders on horrible, recently recalled Anthony Reyes may have the best stuff of any in their meatball rotation and their bullpen is a rag tag mix of soft tossers (ala Brad Thompson and Hancock), has beens (Isringhausen) and never weres (Looper). With Edmonds looking like a 60 year old man, Pujols and Rolen are the only two real threats in their lineup. Pujols is the best player in the game, but I don't know why anyone ever pitches to him with the drek hitting behind him.

The results of your research doesn't surprise me in the least. I knew the Sox and Tigers would torpedo that team this week, and that's exactly what they did. It was very entertaining. The Cards would be pushing up daisies if they were an American League club.

[Redhook]

The Cardinals are not the same as they were last year, that's obvious. But I believe they have one thing the Reds do not have yet: They expect to win and believe they'll win without any doubt. I hope the Reds expect to win too, but I think they need to prove it over the course of the year to really believe it. The Reds need to play really well the next few weeks to prove to themselves and the fans that this isn't 2002 or 2004 all over again. I think it's very possible. I hope the players do to.

[TeamBoone]

But really telling stat the I discovered was the Cardinals winning percentage against teams with a .520 or better winning percentage it drops all the way down to 33%.

What is that same stat for the Reds?

[Razor Shines]

What is that same stat for the Reds?

Well the Reds haven't played anybody with a .520 but against teams with a
.568 winning percentage they have won 40% of their games. Not a alot better but a little. My point wasn't that the Reds are better than the Cards, maybe they are, but my main point was that they are as good and have a good shot at beating them in a series.

[lucky bugle boy]

The Cardinals are not the same as they were last year, that's obvious. But I believe they have one thing the Reds do not have yet: They expect to win and believe they'll win without any doubt. I hope the Reds expect to win too, but I think they need to prove it over the course of the year to really believe it. The Reds need to play really well the next few weeks to prove to themselves and the fans that this isn't 2002 or 2004 all over again. I think it's very possible. I hope the players do to.

I like this post and agree. The Cardinals seem to do one thing very well, and that's beat the teams they ought to beat (unfortunately the last couple of years that has included the Reds). Since they win such a low percentage of games against over-.500 teams, that would imply they beat a lot of teams sub-.500. The encouraging thing to me is that the Reds are not getting buried by good teams, including the Cards, with the exception of the ChiSox.

[Astrobuddy]

This 6 game losing streak has hurt them. The Cards, Astros and Reds arent that far apart in the standings and in talent level. The division title is up for grabs. It wouldnt surprise me to see the Cards end up in 3rd place this season. It is actually amusing to a degree to read the Cards fans all excited about 1 start from Reyes. They just think he will be the 2nd coming of Roger Clemens after that last start.

They do expect to win. Thats why the players and especially the fans have a weird cloud hanging around the right now. They havent had to deal with this for 2 season now. They still act as if they will win 100+ games this season. The Cards will be lucky to win 90 now. They are 10 games off the pace of 2005.

If the Reds make a deal and get some more pitching and Dunn can remember how to hit again the Reds could win the division. The Astros need some bullpen help.

The Cards are in trouble.

[Jpup]

This 6 game losing streak has hurt them. The Cards, Astros and Reds arent that far apart in the standings and in talent level. The division title is up for grabs. It wouldnt surprise me to see the Cards end up in 3rd place this season. It is actually amusing to a degree to read the Cards fans all excited about 1 start from Reyes. They just think he will be the 2nd coming of Roger Clemens after that last start.

They do expect to win. Thats why the players and especially the fans have a weird cloud hanging around the right now. They havent had to deal with this for 2 season now. They still act as if they will win 100+ games this season. The Cards will be lucky to win 90 now. They are 10 games off the pace of 2005.

If the Reds make a deal and get some more pitching and Dunn can remember how to hit again the Reds could win the division. The Astros need some bullpen help.

The Cards are in trouble.

The Astros need some hitting, they will never catch St. Louis without it.

[OldXOhio]

The Cardinals are not the same as they were last year, that's obvious. But I believe they have one thing the Reds do not have yet: They expect to win and believe they'll win without any doubt.

I'm not so sure about that. They're doing things this season that have been rather uncharacteristic of them over the last 5 years. I think for whatever reason, some of their swagger has been lost.

[Deepred05]

I'm not so sure about that. They're doing things this season that have been rather uncharacteristic of them over the last 5 years. I think for whatever reason, some of their swagger has been lost.

A punch in the mouth like the Sox and Tigers just delivered to them will knock the swagger out of anyone.........

[Izzardius]

The roation is the biggest problem, although Reyes will provide some boost now that he is finally getting a chance. I honestly wasn't surprised at being swept on this road trip. The AL is much stronger than the NL, espically in the Central.

I still think the Cards will win the division becuase, no offense, I don't see any real threats to them in the Central. The Reds come closest, having made some improvements in the rotation, but they still don't match up. The Astros still can't hit, the Brewers have been very underwhelming, and the Cubs have been flat-out terrible. The Cards will win it, but not by as wide of a margin.

[griffeyfreak4]

The NL central has been looking extremely weak over the past couple of weeks, and personally, I think the Reds could take the division from the Cards if they just got some BP help.

[OldXOhio]

A punch in the mouth like the Sox and Tigers just delivered to them will knock the swagger out of anyone.........

No doubt. However, it was in question before those series.

[vaticanplum]

You know, the "expectation to win" can go both ways. The Cards have been on top -- and pretty far on top -- for a few years now, and have no World Series titles or even wins to show for it. In some cases, this can make a team hungry. But it can also really beat a team down, and although I would not have expected it at the beginning of the season, I am starting to think from what I have seen of the Cardinals that this is what has happened here. The pitching problems have hurt them tremendously. I also think that the loss of Pujols has affected the team in more ways than just missing his bat. Say whatever you will about him, but I believe he is an emotional catalyst for that team. Then again, that may serve simply to motivate them when he comes back; it's not like they're out of first place at this point or anything.

The Pirates are a non-issue. Unless all three of the top teams suffer a monumental collapse, the Cubs are too, though they have the potential to really muss with the top of the standings without actually being there themselves. The Brewers are hurt and not ready. The team that has the greatest opportunity to capitalize here, then, is the Reds. They have talent; they have holes, but no more so than other teams; they certainly seem to have been blessed with a good bit of luck this season. Can they avoid choking against lesser teams as they have a tendency to do, and can they basically put it all together? I don't know. I'd be overwhelmed if they did, and I will probably be pretty furious if they don't.

The Astros are definitely the dark horse here though. Their "lack of hitting" is no more a current problem than the Cards' pitching or the Reds' bullpen. Heck, you don't need to hit very hard in that little citrus garden they play in as long as their pitching holds it together. That, actually, would be more my concern if I were an Astros fan. Pettitte looks incredibly vulnerable, Buchholz is inconsistent, clemens, for all of his brilliance, is old and has sat out almost half the season. But they're a capable team, they have recent success to build on, and to me they look hungrier than the Cards. They could end up fighting hard for this division title; if the rest of the teams don't put it together or fall apart from injury, they could walk away with it.