Votto + prospect for Blanton....sweet!
Votto and Bailey (or Cueto) for Blanton....not so much.
Edit to add, what I see from Blanton looks like he'd be equal to or better than Arroyo. I've missed several pages of this thread, but am I off here? He does have weak K rate, but so did Arroyo before he made the switch to the NL and you have to love his 40 BB's in 230 IP.
Blanton is just the type of pitcher this rotation needs if the price is right (no Bruce, Bailey or Cueto).
Last edited by BuckeyeRedleg; 02-07-2008 at 09:42 PM.
Here's something to think about-just how much of an upgrade might adding Blanton represent?
Lets assume his ERA as a Red in '08 would be 4.20.
If he replaces an ERA of 5.00 for 200 IP, thats a run savings of 18 runs (1.8 wins)
If he replaces an ERA if 5.20 for 200 IP, thats a run savings of 22 runs (2.2 wins)
If he replaces a replacement level pitcher for 200 IP, that's a run savings of 33 runs (3.3 wins).
So really, the upgrade you'd expect depends entirely upon your opinion of what the back end candidates might be provide. It's also possible that Blanton posts an ERA of 4.50 etc....
I'd argue that without question the Reds #5 can be significantly better than replacement level (ERA=5.70). A summary of the five projection systems suggested Cueto, Bailey and Volquez could all be between 4.90 and 5.00. Personally, I don't think that's too optimistic.
So if you believe the projection systems, Blanton isn't that big of an upgrade. If you have no faith in the kids, than Blanton looks like a huge upgrade (3.3 wins is pretty big). I think reasonably the Reds would be looking at something like 1.5 to 3 wins with the lower end probably being a safer estimate.
I also personally think it'll take 90 wins as a minimum to win the division this year. Given that assumption (it's arguable but bare with me) how would a less than 2 win upgrade effect the Reds chances in '08 given the rest of their roster? What would such an upgrade be worth? Same questions for a 3.3 win upgrade...
Last edited by jojo; 02-07-2008 at 09:58 PM.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
I classify a GB pitcher as someone who yields more ground balls than fly balls (line drives and infield pop ups not included).Originally Posted by *BaseClogger*
Blanton:
2005- GB%= 45.7%; FB%= 37.3%;
2006- GB%= 43.1%; FB%= 37.1%;
2007- GB%= 46.9%; FB%= 32.5%;
Last edited by jojo; 02-07-2008 at 09:56 PM.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
I would much rather take my chances with Harang and Arroyo as my 1-2 punch along with Belisle and Volquez at 3 and 4 with the final spot coming down to Bailey, Cueto, or Maloney as opposed to dealing one or two of our top prospects for Blanton. I like Joe Blanton but not enough to give up one of our top prospects for him. If it was Haren maybe I would feel different but Blanton is not Haren.
Agreed. Votto looks like 6 years of cheap offense on a lineup that is poised to, potentially, lose it's most potent stick (Dunn) and another power bat (Griffey) in the very near future. The system isn't awash in positional talent either.
I'll also go back to a point I made in all those Haren threads -- Beane is a GM that you can sway with quantity over quality. Beane likes getting lots of talent in deals and you can substitute a lack of top-flight prospect with additional mid-level prospects.
I open my bidding with Maloney, Stubbs, and maybe Fisher or LeCure and see if you can't get him to bite without turning to Votto, Bailey or Cueto. That's assuming the Reds continue to target Blanton -- which I still think is a dumb idea.
Cincinnati Reds: Farm System Champions 2022
Over the last 3 years, he's allowed 29 road homers and 27 at home, 4 in 41+ IP at Texas, if that helps.
"Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons
I'm still trying to figure out how Joe Blanton's stats translate to being weak.
Ace? No. Very valuable member of a rotation? YES! Can we say that about Belisle, Bailey, or Volquez or Affeldt at this point? HECK NO!
Who would we rather pick up the phone if the A's call?
Krivsky, or Jocketty?
Probably Krivsky.
Jocketty was hosed by Beane the last time they dealt with each other.
Same could be said for the last time Krivsky and Beane dealt with each other.
Ummmm....no. Chris Denorfia has yet to play a game with the A's. I like Denorfia but the guy will be 28 in July and has 144 career atbats with a .740 OPS.
And was injured.
And Wayne got two prospects for him (McBeth the more interesting of the two).
And some cash.
Hosed....not even close.
I want Special K to make a deal rather than the Jock-man. Jock will deal every prospect we have.
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Cincinnati Reds - 75, 76, 90
Chicago Blackhawks - 10, 13, 15
University of Kentucky - 78, 96, 98, 12
Chicago Bulls - 91, 92, 93, 96, 97, 98
“Everything that happens before Death is what counts.”
― Ray Bradbury, Something Wicked This Way Comes
Weak K Rate, unimpressive hit rate. Belisle had as good if not better numbers minus the IP. Belisle looks to make the step towards 200 IP this year ala Harang in 2005. MB had a slightly worse Hit rate and BB/9, better K/9, and the HR/9 equalized for PF was pretty close.
In a hitters park for half his games, He'll get hit hard. Don't let his road splits fool you, there are some mammoth parks in the AL West, like Seattle for instance.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
Hmmm, Kriv-dawg and Jock-man. If this baseball thing doesn't work out, they could probably make a killing on talk radio.
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