The Jay Bruce Watch and Discussion

[Bourgeois Zee]

I realize Jay Bruce is a plenty flawed player. But I want you to dig up this post in 5-10 years and I can guarantee you that neither Yorman or Winker develop into anything close to Jay Bruce (multiple All Star appearances). They just aren't of that pedigree. Maybe Ervin but not those two.

Winker is the number two prospect in the Red minor league system, according to MLB. Ervin is number eight, while Yorman is number nine. Baseball America has Winker number three, Rodriguez number 10, and Ervin unranked. Baseball Prospectus has Winker second, Stormin' Yorman fourth, and Ervin ninth.

Winker's hit tool is second among all OF prospects. He ranks second overall among all OF prospects as well. This year, his AA OBP is .380. Ervin's Advanced A OBP is .333. Ervin is 22. Winker is 21.

None of the three may touch the numbers Bruce has put up. All three might eclipse him. But, if you're betting on one of them to approach Bruce's numbers, it's Winker.

[NebraskaRed]

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 4m4 minutes ago

Heard from other teams CIN has had Jay Bruce available for awhile, but that they haven't officially kicked off the Cueto sweepstakes.

[Tom Servo]

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 4m4 minutes ago

Heard from other teams CIN has had Jay Bruce available for awhile, but that they haven't officially kicked off the Cueto sweepstakes.

[KronoRed]

Only 7 out, we're still in it

[757690]

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 4m4 minutes ago

Heard from other teams CIN has had Jay Bruce available for awhile, but that they haven't officially kicked off the Cueto sweepstakes.

Beyond meaningless. Reds have scouted other teams prospects, they know who they want and in what order. With Cueto, Jocketty doesnt need to wait for other team's bids. The negotiations start with Walt calling other teams and telling them who he wants for Cueto. Things will move very quickly once that happens.

[wheels]

The only way other teams know that the Reds have been shopping Bruce, but not Cueto is that they've specifically inquired about him and they've said no. Not just no, but they've told other teams he isn't available.

Again, we have to ask what they're waiting for. It's ridiculous.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Meh, it depends what you can get for him in return, surely the Reds can fine a similar or better RF'er in the next year or two, or someone from the system. I'm pretty tired of watching him disappear for months at a time lately. This lineup sorely needs an overhaul, and has, gotta let go of guys like him and get more consistency/OBP from your outfielders. They get so little from those positions now offensively, they don't get on base enough.

I'm all for improving the team. But this year we've seen a fairly dramatic change in approach from Jay. It wasn't producing results at the beginning of the year (mainly due to his horrific BABIP), but he's been steadily improving all season long. I honestly don't think it's going to be as easy as some think to replace him. He's NOT the guy we saw last season. And with the new approach, we're also not as likely to see him disappear for months at a time as we did in the past. Since you mention OBP, try checking out Jay's.

April .310
May .343
June .345
July .390

Career .325

Improved OBP, still incredible power, solid defensively, affordable contract and a great role model. I see no reason to cut him loose.

[_Sir_Charles_]

If he really wants to be a Red for life, one has to wonder why he would turn down multiple extensions from the Reds unless they were complete lowball offers.

The article I read said he/agent said they simply didn't want to deal during the season. Like TONS of players.

[Raisor]

7-1.333
14-.989
28-1.052
2015-.807

April-.713
May-.754
June-.840
July-1.052

7-1.239
14-.927
28-1.044
2015-.806

April-.713
May-.754
June-.840
July-1.022
Pre-All Star-.806

[jojo]

7-1.239
14-.927
28-1.044
2015-.806

April-.713
May-.754
June-.840
July-1.022
Pre-All Star-.806

Why no post-all star metrics? Does this mean that you've licensed the time travel technology?

[Bourgeois Zee]

I'm all for improving the team. But this year we've seen a fairly dramatic change in approach from Jay.

The difference between late-model Bruce and past-four-years Jay Bruce is that he's making a little more contact on pitches within the strike zone (as determine by pitch fx) (86.4% this year as opposed to 84.5% career) and a lot more contact on those thrown outside the strike zone (59.8% to 52.7%). His contact percentage is five points above last season's and three points above career. For whatever reason, he's also seeing fewer first-pitch strikes and fewer strikes in general (by three percentage points).

Is that a skill or is it simply luck? is it repeatable, or is it a blip on the radar that boosts his overall numbers?

[Bourgeois Zee]

The only way other teams know that the Reds have been shopping Bruce, but not Cueto is that they've specifically inquired about him and they've said no. Not just no, but they've told other teams he isn't available.

Again, we have to ask what they're waiting for. It's ridiculous.

They're waiting for the best deal. Jocketty has always been one to wait and wait and wait.

Sometimes that works. Other times, it doesn't.

As to dealing Bruce, I suppose we'll see. He's a good player; if he's being dangled, it's obviously not for scrubs, or he'd have been dealt already.

I suspect Bruce is being shopped for two good prospects, and other teams won't meet that demand. Yet. (Perhaps they never will.)

I also suspect Jocketty is waiting on Cueto to drive up bids. The list of teams needing a great pitcher grows with every strained ligament, aching shoulder, and game behind (or ahead) in the wildcard standings. Unless, of course, Cueto gets hurt. Then you most assuredly would have been correct.

[villain612]

With the 2nd wild card, not many teams are going to be in sell mode. The Reds will have leverage in that regard so no-Cueto news isn't too big of a deal to me yet.

Unless Cueto's arm falls off in the next couple weeks or something.

[bucksfan2]

Jay Bruce currently ranks 13th in OPS among corner OF's. His .806 OPS ranks 49th in baseball, good, not great. According to Fangraphs he has a 1.6 WAR right now, probably a 3.0 over a full season, good not great. He is due $37.5M over the next 3 seasons (assuming his option is picked up). Can the Reds replace his production in a trade? Could they use that money elsewhere to improve the club? I waver on this all the time, right now I am leaning towards wanting him traded, but that could change a week from now.

[_Sir_Charles_]

The difference between late-model Bruce and past-four-years Jay Bruce is that he's making a little more contact on pitches within the strike zone (as determine by pitch fx) (86.4% this year as opposed to 84.5% career) and a lot more contact on those thrown outside the strike zone (59.8% to 52.7%). His contact percentage is five points above last season's and three points above career. For whatever reason, he's also seeing fewer first-pitch strikes and fewer strikes in general (by three percentage points).

Is that a skill or is it simply luck? is it repeatable, or is it a blip on the radar that boosts his overall numbers?

That's not the numbers that I find important. I see that he's swinging at fewers pitches OUTSIDE the zone and more pitches INSIDE the zone. His contact rate has never been good. But he's not chasing those bad pitches low and outside this season. When he does swing at pitches outside the zone...they're barely outside and he's fouling them off. As long as he's laying off those bad pitches...he'll be one of the top hitters in the lineup.

He doesn't have the HR numbers he usually does, but his doubles are up. He's 13th in the NL in xbh. And his BA is rising steadily. Jay's fine IMO. His counting stats are lower than they should be because of that horrific start (babip).