Jay Bruce hopes swing tweak leads to more success in 2016

[Raisor]

Is it not the hitter's job to acquire bases?

Are we really going to get into a debate if Joey Votto should bunt more after a 314/459/541 season?

[MikeS21]

I really don't see the difference between Votto/Bruce taking a walk or bunting for a hit.

[CySeymour]

I really don't see the difference between Votto/Bruce taking a walk or bunting for a hit.

I think the difference is, a walk is the result of not swinging at unhittable pitches. If Votto is going to make contact with a pitch, it's in the teams best interest to try and drive the ball instead of laying a bunt down, resulting in a maximum result of 1 base.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Are we really going to get into a debate if Joey Votto should bunt more after a 314/459/541 season?

Are you really not going to answer my question?

I get that it's relatively difficult to bunt against major league pitching. Then again, we're not talking a perfect bunt either. It only need to get down and by the pitcher. He could try twice (if teams don't correct after the first), then hack away if you'd like.

Can you point me to a place where the question is at least answered mathematically?

[UPRedsFan]

Are we really going to get into a debate if Joey Votto should bunt more after a 314/459/541 season?

I dont think they are shifting on Votto as much as Bruce. Could be wrong. Anyway the shift obviously doesn't hurt Votto. He shouldn't bunt unless he really feels it's his best chance to get on base against a tough pitcher. I'll trust Votto's judgement.

Bruce is a totally different argument. The shift kills him. He needs to find s way to beat it. I say bunt away when they give him the 3rd base line. Give up some power maybe but make less outs.

[Caveat Emperor]

I really don't see the difference between Votto/Bruce taking a walk or bunting for a hit.

No one tears a hammy running out a bunt.

Seriously, the difference between a bunt and a walk is mathematically insignificant. I'll dig up the numbers if I have a chance, but there's a metric ton of common sense at work here -- including the fact that a walk forces the pitcher to throw, at minimum, 4 pitches from his allotted pitch count.

[Bourgeois Zee]

No one tears a hammy running out a bunt.

Seriously, the difference between a bunt and a walk is mathematically insignificant. I'll dig up the numbers if I have a chance, but there's a metric ton of common sense at work here -- including the fact that a walk forces the pitcher to throw, at minimum, 4 pitches from his allotted pitch count.

You can tear a hammy getting out of the bathtub.

Injuries are just chance and unfortunate by-products of a game, despite preparation and work.

By your logic, Votto should lollygag everywhere. You know what he'd be then?

[Bob Sheed]

I'm pulling for Bruce here. How could you not?

Hopefully, in regard to his batting problems, this swing adjustment allows him to Shake it Off.

[Raisor]

The only reason for Votto to bunt is if you think it'll turn outs into non-outs.

With an OBP of 459 last season I'd say there would be as much of a chance that he would be trading walks and base hits for bunts as it would be turning outs into non-outs.

Dude avoided outs 46% of the time last year, which is almost binary.

[Bourgeois Zee]

The only reason for Votto to bunt is if you think it'll turn outs into non-outs.

With an OBP of 459 last season I'd say there would be as much of a chance that he would be trading walks and base hits for bunts as it would be turning outs into non-outs.

Dude avoided outs 46% of the time last year, which is almost binary.

True. That said, there hasn't been any study of how successful he might be as a bunter against the shift. It might well be a phenomenally effective weapon. I certainly wouldn't reject it out of hand because, great hitter. Everyone can improve and improve their odds by doing something different/ better.

How about Bruce, to switch this back to the original off-topic topic? Should he bunt?

[Raisor]

True. That said, there hasn't been any study of how successful he might be as a bunter against the shift. It might well be a phenomenally effective weapon. I certainly wouldn't reject it out of hand because, great hitter. Everyone can improve and improve their odds by doing something different/ better.

How about Bruce, to switch this back to the original off-topic topic? Should he bunt?

I don't have a problem with Bruce doing it every now and then.

[REDREAD]

That's what they want them to do. The defense will gladly take a bunt base hit or an opposite field single if it means guys like Bruce aren't hitting with power.

I'll gladly take Bruce hitting .400+, with all singles.
Because if Bruce gets good at bunting, and the opposition continues to play without a 3b, he could probably hit 400.

[BCubb2003]

Isn't the point that you only have to do it a few times to keep the defense honest (and therefore weaker in general against you)?

[RedsManRick]

I still think we're underestimating the effect the shift has had on his production. His ground ball, line drive, and fly ball rates have all stayed fairly steady throughout his career, but his BABIP has plummeted. I don't know that he's going to be able to pull out of that.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/jay...what-happened/

The article looks at the shift as a possible cause and doesn't find much evidence to support the argument. More than anything else, it finds that pitchers are giving him less to hit. Meanwhile, Bruce is swinging more out of the zone and making more contact when he does so. That said, I have another theory perhaps you'll indulge: Bruce has been slightly worse and also quite unlucky in very regular ways, with the latter doing most of the heavy lifting. His BB% and K% haven't changed much, both down slightly. His FB:GB mix hasn't changed radically. His LD% has dipped, but not radically. His HR/FB rate has dipped a little, but not radically. According to statcast data, Bruce's average exit velocity last year was basically identical to Votto's. So maybe it's not that he's hitting ball notably differently so much as it is that he's not getting the same results, even if the shift isn't to blame.

Remember how Matt Cain had this "ability" to sustain extremely low ERAs relative to his FIP over multiple years and people were coming out of the woodwork to explain why it was definitely a skill he possessed? It was a skill that just showed up one year, stuck around for a few years, and then vanished. Of course, it's possible -- even likely -- that skill played some role. But it's also possible, even likely, that luck played a role as well. I think it's quite possible that's what we're seeing with Bruce -- he has "randomly" hit more balls at guys instead of balls that fall in for hits.

For the sake of example, let's say that Bruce replaces some batted ball outs with singles in each of the last two seasons such that his BABIP approached .292, where it was for the first 6 years of his career. That means he adds 8 singles in 2014 and 17 singles in 2015. This is what happens to his slash lines:

2014: .217/.281/.373 -> .233/.295/.389 (+ 0.7 WAR)
2015: .226/.294/.434 -> .255/.320/.464 (+ 1.5 WAR)

Just by adding "missing" singles, his 2015 looks like a typical Jay Bruce season again. Perhaps a little light on the power, but I'm not saying he's necessarily back 100%, just not nearly as bad as he's looked. We want to find a complicated explanation for it, but sometimes the easy explanation is the right one.

[androosh]

Sorry guys - even though I mentioned Votto, I meant it more for Bruce than for Votto bunting (although if it's a guaranteed base, I have no issue with Votto doing it either, even though I'd rather see him walk). I just hope Bruce doesn't try it once or twice, get out, and decide to no longer try it again.