Jay Bruce hopes swing tweak leads to more success in 2016

[Crumbley]

I am not doubting what Jay is saying, it seems a little odd that a guy who has been in the league this long, would not have the habit of watching video, or having someone do it for them. I know tweaking your swing in the middle of the season is difficult, but one would assume a two days off surrounded by a bye could give someone time to really work on a swing tweak. Hopefully he comes back and mashes this season and is either traded or comes back on a reasonable option year next season.

I don't remember whether it was last year or 2014, but he did try swing changes mid-season and it was a disaster.

[Rando]

Same story, different year

It's never the swing, it's his head. He thinks too much

[Chip R]

He doesn't need to bunt for free bases.

Chip is right about this one, opposing teams would love for Votto to take those type of hits.

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Exactamundo.

You just gave me my new sig.

[KronoRed]

Does anyone remember the yearly articles about Dunn doing some tweaking to cut down on those nasty evil strike outs?

[Raisor]

Does anyone remember the yearly articles about Dunn doing some tweaking to cut down on those nasty evil strike outs?

Not all of us are as old as you, old man.

[Razor Shines]

Are we really going to get into a debate if Joey Votto should bunt more after a 314/459/541 season?

Good heavens. The argument stopped here, right? Must have. I'm not gonna look because there's no need. This certainly ended it.

[_Sir_Charles_]

A base hit is a good thing. Trading the "sure thing" for a chance at more is a fool's errand in baseball.

And if he improves enough at it where he can get the bunt down regularly...the shift will disappear.

[Strikes Out Looking]

This will probably improve Bruce and he'll have a monster year . . . for somebody else after the Reds get a middling prospect for him.

[Chuckie]

I'll be concise:

Bruce: Yes, he should bunt more.

Votto: Doesn't need to bunt.

[Chuckie]

Same story, different year

It's never the swing, it's his head. He thinks too much

You try and not let it get in your head when the haters are hating. Hard to shake that kind of stuff off.

[Seriously though, you're 100 percent correct. I'm not buying it's a "swing" issue with Jay. It's mental. He's lost his confidence. And the haters hating certainly doesn't help. Sorry, couldn't help myself.]

[CySeymour]

You try and not let it get in your head when the haters are hating. Hard to shake that kind of stuff off.

[Seriously though, you're 100 percent correct. I'm not buying it's a "swing" issue with Jay. It's mental. He's lost his confidence. And the haters hating certainly doesn't help. Sorry, couldn't help myself.]

With Bruce, I have no problem with anyone taking the "I'll believe it when I see it" attitude.

[dougdirt]

Same story, different year

It's never the swing, it's his head. He thinks too much

It's the swing. Sort of. His swing is loopy, resulting in lots of fly balls. That's not always a problem, but if he's trying to hit for more average, getting a slightly more level swing could help with that. Lowering your hands will do that. Less travel, less loop in the swing.

[bucksfan2]

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/jay...what-happened/

The article looks at the shift as a possible cause and doesn't find much evidence to support the argument. More than anything else, it finds that pitchers are giving him less to hit. Meanwhile, Bruce is swinging more out of the zone and making more contact when he does so. That said, I have another theory perhaps you'll indulge: Bruce has been slightly worse and also quite unlucky in very regular ways, with the latter doing most of the heavy lifting. His BB% and K% haven't changed much, both down slightly. His FB:GB mix hasn't changed radically. His LD% has dipped, but not radically. His HR/FB rate has dipped a little, but not radically. According to statcast data, Bruce's average exit velocity last year was basically identical to Votto's. So maybe it's not that he's hitting ball notably differently so much as it is that he's not getting the same results, even if the shift isn't to blame.

Remember how Matt Cain had this "ability" to sustain extremely low ERAs relative to his FIP over multiple years and people were coming out of the woodwork to explain why it was definitely a skill he possessed? It was a skill that just showed up one year, stuck around for a few years, and then vanished. Of course, it's possible -- even likely -- that skill played some role. But it's also possible, even likely, that luck played a role as well. I think it's quite possible that's what we're seeing with Bruce -- he has "randomly" hit more balls at guys instead of balls that fall in for hits.

For the sake of example, let's say that Bruce replaces some batted ball outs with singles in each of the last two seasons such that his BABIP approached .292, where it was for the first 6 years of his career. That means he adds 8 singles in 2014 and 17 singles in 2015. This is what happens to his slash lines:

2014: .217/.281/.373 -> .233/.295/.389 (+ 0.7 WAR)
2015: .226/.294/.434 -> .255/.320/.464 (+ 1.5 WAR)

Just by adding "missing" singles, his 2015 looks like a typical Jay Bruce season again. Perhaps a little light on the power, but I'm not saying he's necessarily back 100%, just not nearly as bad as he's looked. We want to find a complicated explanation for it, but sometimes the easy explanation is the right one.

Looking at the spray data, take the LD and FB out of the picture. It appears as if most of the GB's Bruce hits are to a certain part of the field. I would venture to say that 3/4 to 4/5 of the GB's Bruce hits are in between the 2nd base bag and the first baseman. The defense is able to position itself to eliminate many of Bruce's hits. Now you may be able to say that the shift hasn't done anything new to Bruce's offensive numbers, but I don't think you can deny it has eliminated many of his hits. In essence, if it wasn't working then teams wouldn't be doing it.

But I wonder this, and truth be told I don't know a way to measure it. But I wonder how much the shift has effected Bruce's mental aspect of hitting. How much the shift has changed his approach at the plate. I have never stepped into a batters box at a high level of baseball, but I would assume that when a hitter steps in, he at least wants to know where the defense is playing him. Not another fact not often talked about with the shift and Bruce, is what the pitchers are doing, they are pitching in him places that would be more prevalent to induce a ball hit into the shift. For example, if Bruce has shown the ability to take a ball off the outside corner and hit a GB down the 3rd base line, they aren't going to pitch him there much with the shift on. So the defense is positioned to take away Bruce's propensity to hit to the right side of the IF and the pitchers are pitching to induce GB's in that direction, what does Bruce the batter do? Does he press, try to do things that he has no business doing?

I think the shift is taking hits away from Bruce, but I also think it is messing with his mind when it comes to hitting.

[Chip R]

And if he improves enough at it where he can get the bunt down regularly...the shift will disappear.

Whether or not you believe Bruce regularly bunting for base hits is a good thing against shifts, the shifts probably won't disappear.

From the book, "Big Data Baseball":

"...While (Jay) Bruce was nine times more likely to hit a ground ball to the right side of the infield than the left in 2012, he was ten times more likely to do so for his career, which covered more than 2,500 batted balls put into play.

"...The infielders had questions. If they left roughly half of the infield uncovered, wouldn't the batter simply go the other way? Wouldn't he adjust? Heck, he could just drop a bunt down. However, the coaching staff explained that if the batter bunted, he would be eliminating his chance for an extra-base hit. This would take him out of his preferred approach. Moreover, the coaches noted how pitches on the outside of the plate were more likely to be hit on the ground to a batter's pull side, into the teeth of the defensive alignment, given the swing plane, the path of the bat, and the angle to the ball. Coaches explained outside pitches hit into play to the opposite field were more likely to be lifted into the air due to the angle of the swing.

"Studies of hundreds of thousands of balls in play showed little evidence of hitters' changing their batted ball profile. Based upon anecdotal evidence, even the few lefties that were shifted against continued to try to pull the ball and to hit home runs because that's what they were paid to do. Let them try to change their approach, the Pirates were told. Let them go away from their strengths."

[REDREAD]

"Studies of hundreds of thousands of balls in play showed little evidence of hitters' changing their batted ball profile.[/B]

This is the key statement. It appears that no one has (successfully) been able to change their approach.
If it was easy to become an expert bunter (I know it isn't) and drop it down the 3b line every time, maybe the shifts would change.

I totally agree with the Pirates' statement. Why not shift? It appears the hitters either can't or won't change their approach because of it.
That's why we are suggesting Bruce bunting. His BA/OBP is so poor that it's worth sacrificing some power to try something different.
Now I have no idea if he's working on this or not. It is not a criticism, it just seems when someone has hit rock bottom like Bruce, it would be worth it to try to bunt for a hit when the opposition is playing effectively without a 3b. If nothing else, it would change the batted ball profile. A lot fewer balls would go to the shifted 2b and SS. The 3b (now playing SS) would get a lot fewer chances as well. If you did it long enough, the spray chart changes and then the defense moves back to a more normal position. And if they don't, we'd take any player batting his way to a 400ish OBP.