Understood, but he will inevitably have a cold streak, and then he will be a bad fielder and bad hitter. His trade value right now is likely at it's peak for the 2016 season. He needs to be traded this week.Originally Posted by Tom Servo
Understood, but he will inevitably have a cold streak, and then he will be a bad fielder and bad hitter. His trade value right now is likely at it's peak for the 2016 season. He needs to be traded this week.
REDREAD (05-24-2016)
Defensive metrics in May are about as reliable as the Reds bullpen.
The Reds bullpen is very reliable. Just in a negative way.
dougdirt (05-23-2016),Griffey012 (05-23-2016),OGB (05-24-2016),reds1869 (05-23-2016),Revering4Blue (05-23-2016)
Very true, I've read that UZR is better take as an average but should always be taken with a grain of salt because its sorting criteria may do something an observer may disagree with. Regardless, I imagine Bruce grades out as an average defender in most people's eyes.
If Bruce is average, then one must ask whether defensive metrics have any utility at all.
Out of respect for the player, I'm not going to repeat his UZR rating, but it is very, very low.
Yes, UZR is best used in a larger sample. But it's hard for me to imagine that any GM in baseball would ignore Jay's defensive rating in trade discussions.
Last edited by Kc61; 05-23-2016 at 03:54 PM.
Alex Gordon was placed on the 15 day DL today with a wrist injury. Might serve as a catalyst for the Reds.
Bruce for Hunter Dozier and Jorge Bonafacio works for me.
RedsRocker (05-23-2016)
Uh, yeah. That'd work really well, but that seems like a whole bunch for the Red RF.
Add in Cozart, and maybe you get that package (and perhaps one more prospect).
I find your claimed line of thinking on defensive metrics quite ironic, considering that you thought we shouldn't have paid attention to Jay's post-July offensive collapse in 2015 (preferring to concentrate on what he did earlier in the season when judging him). Funny thing those numbers, they tend to have a way of elucidating and illuminating through people's subjective opinions. So, here, let me fix that for you: this is Jay's UZRs since 2014 (2014, -6.1; 2015, -4.2, 2016, -9). That's a -19.3 UZR in almost 2,800 defensive innings. Maybe his range is as streaky as his hitting (a post-injury/2+ season-long streak, that is).
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and [the St. Louis Cardinals]."--Benjamin Disraeli
I'm sure teams aren't ignoring his defensive rating/value in trade discussions. But, I'd be shocked if any team is using UZR or any other stat we've got access to. They've got data from the last year and a half that's tracking these guys movements via radar. We've got data based on a zone drawn on a field and some dude saying that's a fly ball and he caught it here. We're playing tic-tac-toe and they're playing chess.
Cool. And I'll counter that his fielding runs above-average (from Baseball Prospectus) since 2014: 1.3, 3.0 and -6.5. That's -2.2 and the bad number on there, it's the small sample size one. And that's kind of my point. The defensive metrics "we" use aren't very good. They don't all agree with each other and in some cases, like Jay Bruce here, disagree in an enormous way. That's about two entire wins of difference in basically two full seasons.
As for the offensive stuff, you probably misunderstood what I was saying. That was: see if he can repeat what he did through July and trade him when he's going well. Don't trade him now when he's at an all-time low.
Elam (05-23-2016)
Gordon is out at least 3 to 4 weeks with a fractured wrist. So the trade talks may really pick up for a replacement.
Would love to get Dozier. A little concerned about his strikeout rate but he is absolutely raking this year and is only 24.
"If I wanted you to understand I would have explained it better."
- Johan Cruyff, RIP
No way does that happen.
I don't see it as terribly unlikely, peep his stats from 2014 and 2015 in AA. Brutal. Maybe the Royals believe he's finally figured it out, or maybe they aren't buying it and would be happy to sell high to get a major league player.
“I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”
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