Royals interested in Bruce?

[corkedbat]

Like many here, I've banged the Jay Bruce drum since the day he was drafted. I think trading him at his high point is the right move, but the pensive Cincy fan in me thinks he'll leave and become OPS that 975 stud we've wanted over the next few years.

Might happen, but I'm more inclined to believe that if they keep him, he reverts to norm and finishes lower than last years totals in most categories. Even if he does finish strong, what are you keeping him for? This club's going no where until 2018 at the earliest.

[Cannon]

Might happen, but I'm more inclined to believe that if they keep him, he reverts to norm and finishes lower than last years totals in most categories. Even if he does finish strong, what are you keeping him for? This club's going no where until 2018 at the earliest.

2018 Bruce will still only be 31, and he's a power hitter who seems to be maturing a bit in his approach. He could still be useful for another few years after that even.

[InsaneinthBrame]

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/fiv...ng-their-xoba/
Here is an article that mentions Bruce and it does not project a rosy picture going forward.

"Bruce has not been able to keep a stable exit velocity or launch angle. He has lost 1.3 degrees off his vertical launch angle, dropping from 12.7 to 11.4 degrees. Worse yet, he has fallen from 90.4 to 88.2 mph average exit velocity."

"Jay Bruce’s batted ball quality is very similar to what he produced last season, which was below league average and probably the second worst season of his career. This year his batted ball quality has actually been a slight tick lower than last season. His in game production has benefited greatly from registering a bunch of low probability hits, and, probably, boosted by a very hitter friendly home ball park as well. Since 2012, when he peaked in value as a player, he has slowly descended in value, to the point where his offense may no longer make up for his very poor defense. Anyone looking to buy him should be wary, he could regress pretty badly, especially if he leaves Great American Ball Park. Unless something changes, you should expect him to put up roughly the same numbers as last season."

Basically the article is saying he has been lucky this year. His production has out preformed what one would expect.

[Kc61]

I don't think many dispute this. It's just a question of whether that will happen. If it doesn't, I wouldn't completely rule out an extension.

If Reds can't trade Bruce for good value, then I could see a buy out after the year. Maybe with a Qualifying Offer. I could even possibly see the Reds picking up his option for one year. Unlikely, but possible.

An extension? Can't see that happening. Reds would need very short memories to sign Jay Bruce long term for $13-15MM per year.

[OGB]

Might happen, but I'm more inclined to believe that if they keep him, he reverts to norm and finishes lower than last years totals in most categories. Even if he does finish strong, what are you keeping him for? This club's going no where until 2018 at the earliest.

That's why I think trading him is the right move.

[Tom Servo]

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/fiv...ng-their-xoba/
Here is an article that mentions Bruce and it does not project a rosy picture going forward.

"Bruce has not been able to keep a stable exit velocity or launch angle. He has lost 1.3 degrees off his vertical launch angle, dropping from 12.7 to 11.4 degrees. Worse yet, he has fallen from 90.4 to 88.2 mph average exit velocity."

"Jay Bruce’s batted ball quality is very similar to what he produced last season, which was below league average and probably the second worst season of his career. This year his batted ball quality has actually been a slight tick lower than last season. His in game production has benefited greatly from registering a bunch of low probability hits, and, probably, boosted by a very hitter friendly home ball park as well. Since 2012, when he peaked in value as a player, he has slowly descended in value, to the point where his offense may no longer make up for his very poor defense. Anyone looking to buy him should be wary, he could regress pretty badly, especially if he leaves Great American Ball Park. Unless something changes, you should expect him to put up roughly the same numbers as last season."

Basically the article is saying he has been lucky this year. His production has out preformed what one would expect.

Some of this is where advanced metrics lose me (xBACON?). Specifically this:

Here is a table of ten of Bruce’s more unlikely hits so far this season. Two those batted balls pop off the screen: two homers that had less than 1% chance of clearing the fence. He also landed on third base with a triple on a ball that only had a 0.5% chance of being three bases. Those three hits alone represent a large shift in his stats, if they had landed for singles instead, his slugging percentage would drop 46 points. If they were outs, his slugging would drop 63 points.

Here's a HR we are told Bruce should be dinged on because it "had less than 1% chance of clearing the fences", from 5/5/16:



Come on.

[corkedbat]

2018 Bruce will still only be 31, and he's a power hitter who seems to be maturing a bit in his approach. He could still be useful for another few years after that even.

The is no such thing as "only 31." This club has no business talking extensions with anyone 30 or over - especially someone as up and down as Bruce. Sign guys to extensions in their mid-to-late 20's, buy out a couple of Arb years and a couple of FA years and thenm with virtually no exceptions, deal them when they get into their early 30's. Bruce is by no means someone for which you make an exception.

[osuceltic]

Bruce is Lucy holding the football and begging the Reds to kick it. "You can trust me this time ... I promise!"

No thanks.

[Cannon]

Yeah, I don't know much about the numbers that guy is using in his article, but his batted ball profile and contact rates are some of the best of his career to this point. I don't see in any way why that would point to regression.

LD % - 23.5, 2nd best behind 2013's 23.9.
GB % - 36.2, 2nd lowest behidn 2012's 35.4.
IFFB % - 5.0, lowest of his career.
HR/FB % - 21.7, highest of his career.
Hard contact % - 39.0, highest of his career.
Swing % outside of the zone - 26.3, lowest of his career.
Contact % - 78.3, highest of his career.
Swinging strike % - 10.3, lowest of his career.

So basically he's swinging less at bad pitches, making more contact on good pitches, making harder contact, hitting less balls on the ground, and hitting more line-drives. He's pulling the ball at about his career rate, but going middle more than opposite compared to his career rates. He's not being inflated by a ridiculous HR/FB, nor does he have a BABIP that is out of the norm for his batted ball profile (if anything his BABIP is low compared to it).

This far into the season the batted ball profiles and plate discipline are generally normalized. So this version of Jay Bruce is no fluke, and he really isn't outperforming his peripherals at all.

[KronoRed]

I'd rather have Jay Bruce than Homer Bailey. We have plenty of pitching in the system but RF is a giant gaping chasm. But don't throw me into the sign Jay Bruce camp because of that. I only like it if he comes relatively cheaply and there are no good trades out there. The blogger who first brought up the idea put a hypothetical $14M annual salary on him and I think I'd to that.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I don't think he would come cheap, if he keeps hitting and the Reds keep him he will price himself right out of town, if he slumps again the Reds will get less in a trade.

Lose/lose...trade him before the chasm.

[Patrick Bateman]

Some of this is where advanced metrics lose me (xBACON?). Specifically this:



Here's a HR we are told Bruce should be dinged on because it "had less than 1% chance of clearing the fences", from 5/5/16:



Come on.

What the heck does that even mean? Would be interesting to see how this "study" worked for other players. Seems like a LOT of noise at first glance.

[corkedbat]

Yeah, I don't know much about the numbers that guy is using in his article, but his batted ball profile and contact rates are some of the best of his career to this point. I don't see in any way why that would point to regression.

LD % - 23.5, 2nd best behind 2013's 23.9.
GB % - 36.2, 2nd lowest behidn 2012's 35.4.
IFFB % - 5.0, lowest of his career.
HR/FB % - 21.7, highest of his career.
Hard contact % - 39.0, highest of his career.
Swing % outside of the zone - 26.3, lowest of his career.
Contact % - 78.3, highest of his career.
Swinging strike % - 10.3, lowest of his career.

So basically he's swinging less at bad pitches, making more contact on good pitches, making harder contact, hitting less balls on the ground, and hitting more line-drives. He's pulling the ball at about his career rate, but going middle more than opposite compared to his career rates. He's not being inflated by a ridiculous HR/FB, nor does he have a BABIP that is out of the norm for his batted ball profile (if anything his BABIP is low compared to it).

This far into the season the batted ball profiles and plate discipline are generally normalized. So this version of Jay Bruce is no fluke, and he really isn't outperforming his peripherals at all.

His whole career points to regression.

[Chuckie]

If Reds can't trade Bruce for good value, then I could see a buy out after the year. Maybe with a Qualifying Offer. I could even possibly see the Reds picking up his option for one year. Unlikely, but possible.

An extension? Can't see that happening. Reds would need very short memories to sign Jay Bruce long term for $13-15MM per year.

Again, the qualifying offer would be more $ than Bruce's 2017 team option. It would make no sense to pay the buyout and then make a qualifying offer. What if Bruce pulls a Colby Rasmus and accepts the offer? The Reds don't want that. They need to trade him ASAFP, IMO.

[REDREAD]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-...ce-is-missing/

If teams are (including the Reds) are shortsighted enough to think that the knee surgery didn't affect his production in 14/15 then I'm just fine with keeping him. He'll continue to hit very well when healthy, and the ability is there for him to improve in the field again. I'm definitely not on board with giving him away for a cut price because he had a couple down seasons after knee surgery when his history and pedigree suggest the Jay Bruce we're seeing now is more 'real' than the 14/15 version.

Well according to this, Bruce said the knee was 100% in 2015 spring training, and he sure had a nice first half

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/reds...ring/22157203/

There is also a blurb about Jay adjusting his mechanics last year, and that was given credit to his positive start
http://www.cincinnati.com/story/spor...reds/82764780/

“He’s [Bruce] put a lot of work in,” manager Bryan Price said. “You know how proud he is, and he puts a lot of expectation on his own shoulders to do the job that he’s paid to do.”

Much of that work has been fine-tuning his mechanics, a change that Bruce hopes will help him keep his bat in the strike zone longer. He’s always been focused mentally on using the whole field, but now he feels better equipped physically do to so as well.

Through three games, it seems to be paying off. Last year, 45 percent of his hits went up the middle. He’s hit five of six that way through the first three games of 2016

And here is a nice article about Bruce candidly talking about his approach last year during his hot streak.. I dont want to quote it all, but
its worth reading..

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/reds...alks/28522531/

"I'm not trying to walk more, that's for certain," Bruce said before Thursday's game. "I think it's the simple fact that I'm not getting myself out as much. I don't know what my contact rate is — it might be a little higher."

Bruce is right — he had a 76.3 contact rate going into Thursday's game, better than he has had in any single season of his career (of course, this is one quarter of the season, so it's not exactly fair to compare them).

"I don't know what's sustainable, what isn't, but over the past three weeks, I've been feeling good at the plate," Bruce said. "I've been getting results, seeing the ball well, not getting myself out a ton. I think if I put together a full season of that, things will be where they're supposed to be."

So the point is.. Im glad Bruce is working hard, and trying to make adjustments.. But heres a guy clearly not looking for walks (and his second half showed that, he hardly got any).. He makes various tweaks to his swing.. I dont have proof, but it seems he tweaks it a lot, it works, then the pitchers adjust and he is sub replacement level again.. I just really doubt that this year he has fixed it for real, but obviously, I could be wrong.
I dont wish him any bad will, but is definitely not someone I want on the team beyond this year.

- - - Updated - - -

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-...ce-is-missing/

If teams are (including the Reds) are shortsighted enough to think that the knee surgery didn't affect his production in 14/15 then I'm just fine with keeping him. He'll continue to hit very well when healthy, and the ability is there for him to improve in the field again. I'm definitely not on board with giving him away for a cut price because he had a couple down seasons after knee surgery when his history and pedigree suggest the Jay Bruce we're seeing now is more 'real' than the 14/15 version.

Well according to this, Bruce said the knee was 100% in 2015 spring training, and he sure had a nice first half

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/reds...ring/22157203/

There is also a blurb about Jay adjusting his mechanics last year, and that was given credit to his positive start
http://www.cincinnati.com/story/spor...reds/82764780/

“He’s [Bruce] put a lot of work in,” manager Bryan Price said. “You know how proud he is, and he puts a lot of expectation on his own shoulders to do the job that he’s paid to do.”

Much of that work has been fine-tuning his mechanics, a change that Bruce hopes will help him keep his bat in the strike zone longer. He’s always been focused mentally on using the whole field, but now he feels better equipped physically do to so as well.

Through three games, it seems to be paying off. Last year, 45 percent of his hits went up the middle. He’s hit five of six that way through the first three games of 2016

And here is a nice article about Bruce candidly talking about his approach last year during his hot streak.. I dont want to quote it all, but
its worth reading..

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/reds...alks/28522531/

"I'm not trying to walk more, that's for certain," Bruce said before Thursday's game. "I think it's the simple fact that I'm not getting myself out as much. I don't know what my contact rate is — it might be a little higher."

Bruce is right — he had a 76.3 contact rate going into Thursday's game, better than he has had in any single season of his career (of course, this is one quarter of the season, so it's not exactly fair to compare them).

"I don't know what's sustainable, what isn't, but over the past three weeks, I've been feeling good at the plate," Bruce said. "I've been getting results, seeing the ball well, not getting myself out a ton. I think if I put together a full season of that, things will be where they're supposed to be."

So the point is.. Im glad Bruce is working hard, and trying to make adjustments.. But heres a guy clearly not looking for walks (and his second half showed that, he hardly got any).. He makes various tweaks to his swing.. I dont have proof, but it seems he tweaks it a lot, it works, then the pitchers adjust and he is sub replacement level again.. I just really doubt that this year he has fixed it for real, but obviously, I could be wrong.
I dont wish him any bad will, but is definitely not someone I want on the team beyond this year.

[BluegrassRedleg]

The is no such thing as "only 31." This club has no business talking extensions with anyone 30 or over - especially someone as up and down as Bruce. Sign guys to extensions in their mid-to-late 20's, buy out a couple of Arb years and a couple of FA years and thenm with virtually no exceptions, deal them when they get into their early 30's. Bruce is by no means someone for which you make an exception.

Thankyouverymuch.