Royals interested in Bruce?

[Tracy Jones]

I'm not sure any sabermetrically inclined team would give you much for him.

The exception -if his defensive stats are better than perceived at our level -then he might be able to throw off a B- kind of prospect. Maybe someone's 11-15th prospect. I would like to trade with the Dodgers- they don't seem to mind eating salary and losing a deal for short term gain.

No. Just no.

[WrongVerb]

Houston is on the rise and sits at 36-36, 3 games out of the WC. I wonder what it would take to pry Bregman? If Jay keeps this up I almost wonder if a straight up 1-1 would be possible

Well, given that Bregman is still only in AA, but definitely on track to a successful major league career, I'd insist on a lottery ticket type of A-ball prospect or a LH reliever to come with him.

[Tom Servo]

Putting aside any arguments about how accurate the defensive metrics are, I simply have a very hard time buying that Bruce's defense would affect what teams are willing to give up for Bruce. Would they likely bring it up in the hopes of driving the Reds asking price down? Sure. But the teams interested in Bruce are interested because he pounds baseballs out the park, not because they are looking for a good glove.

[Kingspoint]

Wherever Bruce ends up, congratulations to him for pulling out this MVP-votable season. 2nd in RBI's and the other Offensive numbers has to garnish some votes. Just trying to say that he's playing as well as any other nine non-pitchers in the NL. He's made it a reason to go out to the ballpark, and he's held the fort untilthe injuries right themselves and there's other reasons to go out to the ballpark after Jay, and hopefully, Zach depart to teams in the playoff hunt for this season. Congrats to Zach on his best year ever.

[IslandRed]

Putting aside any arguments about how accurate the defensive metrics are, I simply have a very hard time buying that Bruce's defense would affect what teams are willing to give up for Bruce.

That probably depends on the team. Some take defense more seriously than others. And if range is Bruce's primary problem these days, some teams' center fielders mitigate that better than others. We also have to consider that a team's proprietary metrics may not agree with the consumer-grade numbers, and that could go either way.

(Short version: Danged if we know)

[Kingspoint]

Encarnacion has had a tremendous career as a much worse Defenseman. Toronto doesn't seem to mind.

This year's Bruce isn't on one of those hot streaks. His habits have been disected apart thoroughly. A team getting him could feel fairly confident that his 2nd half production will match his first half.....if he stays in the National League. All bets are off if he switches leagues. He'll have to adjust and be unfamiliar with a ton of pitchers. That's always difficult for hitters, especially those with high strikeout rates. It can be done. Look at Adam Duvall. But, as expected with someone unfamiliar with the pitchers, there's enough contact to generate a ton of homeruns with the number of homerun swings taken. That could happen to Bruce if he goes to the AL. Frazier has experienced this. What gains Bruce made with his plate discipline could disappear as a Royal.

[Kc61]

Encarnacion has had a tremendous career as a much worse Defenseman. Toronto doesn't seem to mind.

This year's Bruce isn't on one of those hot streaks. His habits have been disected apart thoroughly. A team getting him could feel fairly confident that his 2nd half production will match his first half.....if he stays in the National League. All bets are off if he switches leagues. He'll have to adjust and be unfamiliar with a ton of pitchers. That's always difficult for hitters, especially those with high strikeout rates. It can be done. Look at Adam Duvall. But, as expected with someone unfamiliar with the pitchers, there's enough contact to generate a ton of homeruns with the number of homerun swings taken. That could happen to Bruce if he goes to the AL. Frazier has experienced this. What gains Bruce made with his plate discipline could disappear as a Royal.

The AL teams will be concerned about a league switch. The NL teams will be concerned about Bruce's defense. But eventually, probably August 1, somebody will pay up for his bat if it's still hot.

[Cooper]

His last 5 years ....let's use bRef because it has him shining in a better light.

5 years ....7.7 WAR. Even if you give him an avg glove he comes in at 7.5 ( that's if you assume he has an average glove). Let's round up because offensively he's on pace for about a 4.5 oWAR...that would mean his average output over the last 5 years is 2 WAR.

I know many of you believe he's worth much more, but if you were another team you would:

1. Check out his defense (it's below avg).
2. Know that he is going to go into the decline phase of his career after age 30.
3. You tend to look at the whole rather than 70 games.
4. You check out his salary- i'm inclined to say that works in the Reds favor, but it's close. A WAR win is worth about 7 million bucks. So he's getting paid at the level that's "break even"in some sense.
5. Teams check out counting stats, but with analytics -you're about 20 years behind if that's the sole way you evaluate a player.

No smart team would sign him to a long term contract unless he changed who he has become (slowing his bat and going the other way to beat the shift- if he did so he'd have some good numbers and then they'd play him at normal positions).

If you get a B- prospect, you take it and you count your blessings. I hate to say but that's who he is.

[WrongVerb]

His last 5 years ....let's use bRef because it has him shining in a better light.

5 years ....7.7 WAR. Even if you give him an avg glove he comes in at 7.5 ( that's if you assume he has an average glove). Let's round up because offensively he's on pace for about a 4.5 oWAR...that would mean his average output over the last 5 years is 2 WAR.

I know many of you believe he's worth much more, but if you were another team you would:

1. Check out his defense (it's below avg).
2. Know that he is going to go into the decline phase of his career after age 30.
3. You tend to look at the whole rather than 70 games.
4. You check out his salary- i'm inclined to say that works in the Reds favor, but it's close. A WAR win is worth about 7 million bucks. So he's getting paid at the level that's "break even"in some sense.
5. Teams check out counting stats, but with analytics -you're about 20 years behind if that's the sole way you evaluate a player.

No smart team would sign him to a long term contract unless he changed who he has become (slowing his bat and going the other way to beat the shift- if he did so he'd have some good numbers and then they'd play him at normal positions).

If you get a B- prospect, you take it and you count your blessings. I hate to say but that's who he is.

All good points, but if I may:

1. Some teams don't value defense the way others do; and defensive metrics have their limitations
2. A team making a World Series push this year that needs a bat isn't going to be concerned about him declining in 2-3 years.
3. The whole shows that Bruce made some adjustments to his swing and approach that seem to be paying off with more consistency
4. Agreed. If the Reds put in some cash, that might help bring back a better player.
5. Also agreed, but again, the factors in items 1-3 on this list somewhat address those concerns.

All that said, while I hope and wish for someone like Bregman, more realistic is what I proposed yesterday: A LH reliever on the cusp of the majors, and another top 100-200 prospect.

[Kingspoint]

2nd in RBI's.

3rd in Slg Pct

10th in OPS

6th in Total Bases

Left-handed power that can also hit left-handed pitching for power.

This type of player doesn't grow on trees. Plug him into the 4th or 5th spot in the order on any of the contending teams, and they get significantly better.

That's got to be worth more than a B-level prospect to a National League team.

[Kingspoint]

Btw, Cozart is currently 6th Defensively in WAR in the National League. He'd fit in very well with the Pirates, whose starting 2nd Baseman and Shortstop are both OPS'ing .708. Cozart has that beat by 130 points, proving last year's power surge was not a fluke. And, he's a superior Defensemen than both of them on a team that values Defense. But, Pittsburgh needs some slugging percentage added to the lineup. McCutcheon is slugging .404, and they struggle to score runs, even though the team has a pretty good OBP. They don't have enough guys to knock them in. Cozart could bat 2nd. McCutcheon should be moved to 7th, but that won't happen.

[Patrick Bateman]

His last 5 years ....let's use bRef because it has him shining in a better light.

5 years ....7.7 WAR. Even if you give him an avg glove he comes in at 7.5 ( that's if you assume he has an average glove). Let's round up because offensively he's on pace for about a 4.5 oWAR...that would mean his average output over the last 5 years is 2 WAR.

I know many of you believe he's worth much more, but if you were another team you would:

1. Check out his defense (it's below avg).
2. Know that he is going to go into the decline phase of his career after age 30.
3. You tend to look at the whole rather than 70 games.
4. You check out his salary- i'm inclined to say that works in the Reds favor, but it's close. A WAR win is worth about 7 million bucks. So he's getting paid at the level that's "break even"in some sense.
5. Teams check out counting stats, but with analytics -you're about 20 years behind if that's the sole way you evaluate a player.

No smart team would sign him to a long term contract unless he changed who he has become (slowing his bat and going the other way to beat the shift- if he did so he'd have some good numbers and then they'd play him at normal positions).

If you get a B- prospect, you take it and you count your blessings. I hate to say but that's who he is.

I think you are lacking a bit of context in your analysis:

1. Bruce has proven in the past he can hit. It's fair for debate whether the injuries he's encountered are what roadblocked his past hitting success. Simply averaging out his hitting stats the last 5 years without putting some significant weight on that fact isn't fairly judging his true abilities when healthy. I believe a few power hungry teams are going to buy into the rebound and overlook injury riddled years.

2. I'm on the fence about the defense thing... my gut tells me he gives some value back, but not to the degree that is shown with Billy out there. You mention analytical teams are going to point to the bad defensive value. I believe the true analytic teams will do a thorough analysis on this subject. Right now we are purely looking at UZR and not getting to the bottom of the context of what the number means. Different teams will have different valuations on his defensive performance. From watching him, and comparing to other butchers out there, I think many are going to deem the defense passable enough for his hitting value. Additionally, some teams may be able to spot him at DH, or next to a rangy CF to mask some of that value loss.

3. The decline phase is virtually irrelevant to this discussion. I don't think teams trying to acquire him are looking at the long haul with Bruce. They are looking at this year and next, where Bruce has affordable contracts. Teams like short term commitments without high price tags. Compared to the free agent market where similarly flawed players like Justin Upton got 5+ years at $20M a year, it's easy to see why someone might prefer Bruce for 1.5 years at softer dollars. In fact, the Blue Jays tried to turn Michael Saunders into Jay Bruce in the off-season purely because they coveted the costs controlled second year. That was before Bruce started hitting again, and after his defense was already grading out as awful.

I'm not typically one that is swayed by small sample size, but Bruce is not a journeyman, or a rookie without proven hitting results. He's also not 35.

I believe this is a story of a 29 year old, skilled power hitter that is making a resurgence after battling injuries. Looking around the league, Bruce not only stacks up well against other hitters who may be available, but is also stacking up as one of the better hitters in baseball at the moment. That is going to be in demand, especially with a team that values short term cost control and can make a gameplan to mask his defensive issues. He will be heavily in demand.

Perhaps you wont get a top 25 prospect stud. But I could see a similar value package to what the Reds got for half a year of Cueto being on the table (3 interesting guys between prospect status 50 and 200). I think a team could wrap their heads around giving up some value for 1.5 years of Bruce as long as they weren't letting go of a corner stone piece.

[klw]

I hate to say it but I don't think I move either Bruce or Cozart at this point unless the Reds get their socks blown away. With the arms coming up and back, the improvement and potential to compete for a WC spot is there for 2017. If Winker was beating down the door at AAA, it might be different but this team has a shot to compete next year. The position players are not that far off.

[Kc61]

I don't think they get a Cueto package. There's nothing as valuable as a TOR starter in a pennant race.

They'll probably get two players. I'm not worried about the second one, the Reds have done a good job of identifying secondary trade players. (Schebler, Renda, etc.)

The issue is how good the top name will be. That's the negotiation, we'll see.

[Cooper]

His value is the same as Frazier's (essentially). For Frazier the Reds received one B- prospect in Peraza, and one C level prospect in Schebler, and a C- prospect in Dixon. Frazier was making 8 million compared to Bruce making 13 million. That's probably why the Dodgers/White Sox added 2 C level prospects. That seems to be within line of who he is. Heck, value wise you could makenthe case that Schebler might be able to replace Bruce and you might not miss his production. Think about that.....a C level prospect possibly producing the same value at 1/10th the cost.

I'm not saying i want this to happen -he's my 3rd favorite player on the team and i'm hoping that he turns things around from here on out, but there's a lot of at bats there and usually players don't turn it around at age 29/30. Maybe we should look at his comps.