Royals interested in Bruce?

[Kingspoint]

We should be able to get someone whose upside is solid starter for four years, even if those four yyears are five years from beginning.

[klw]

How can they not? What pitcher in our organization could pitch well enough to win a League Champioship Game (keep in mind who his opposing Ace will be, in addition to the opposing Lineup), yet alone a World Series game?

This year none but for a 2017 playoff game there are many options- none are sure things but Bailey, Reed, Disco, Garrett and Iglesias could all be the sort or arm to dominate a game (or not). If you get to the playoffs, there is no guarantee the best team wins which the Reds know all too well. So you get there, hope your pitching is rested and lined up and hope for the best.

If the Reds are not planning on competing in 2017 and move Bruce and Cozart, they should also shop Duvall and Disco.

[Z-Fly]

This year none but for a 2017 playoff game there are many options- none are sure things but Bailey, Reed, Disco, Garrett and Iglesias could all be the sort or arm to dominate a game (or not). If you get to the playoffs, there is no guarantee the best team wins which the Reds know all too well. So you get there, hope your pitching is rested and lined up and hope for the best.

If the Reds are not planning on competing in 2017 and move Bruce and Cozart, they should also shop Duvall and Disco.

Don't they still have 4+ years of control for Disco?

[Kingspoint]

I forgot about Bailey. Haven't thought of him as a RED in a long time.

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When does Duvall start to get expensive?

[Kc61]

This year none but for a 2017 playoff game there are many options- none are sure things but Bailey, Reed, Disco, Garrett and Iglesias could all be the sort or arm to dominate a game (or not). If you get to the playoffs, there is no guarantee the best team wins which the Reds know all too well. So you get there, hope your pitching is rested and lined up and hope for the best.

If the Reds are not planning on competing in 2017 and move Bruce and Cozart, they should also shop Duvall and Disco.

I understand the sentiment, but IMO that's not the kind of rebuild this team is doing.

The Reds are trading "expensive" salaries for inexpensive young talent. As the team gets readier, they will add veterans to try and cap off a contender.

They likely are not going to trade inexpensive, performing players like Duvall and Disco.

As a business matter, the Reds want to avoid any appearance of total capitulation. This is a terrible year, but they have kept a number of familiar veterans.

As the Reds' core of expensive regulars dwindles, successful young players like Disco and Duvall become important in selling the team to fans. The Reds will not trade them IMO even if they aren't competing in 2017.

They would sooner trade from minor league depth. The fans have no investment in most minor leaguers.

[swaisuc]

Do you get a comp pick, if there is an option?

If he doesn't get dealt, picking up the option is a no-brainer at this point.

[marcshoe]

Yeah, 13 million is a deal, particularly seeing what the QO amounts have become.

[Cooper]

Kingspoint: James may have run the numbers and come up with differing data. I think players did stay on longer and were more productive during the PED era, but since 2010 things have reverted back to pre-1992 comps.

I do agree that players are probably healthier than they were 50 years ago...i do agree with that. I also agree with the taking better care of their bodies. I agree that there's better medicine.

I think you're forgetting that there's competition --if your opponent is life and bad health. You and you're wife (along with society) is winning some battles. We live longer. The issue with MLB players is not their good health -it's a younger guys better health.

Name 10 players .....any 10 batters. Their most valuable years come pre-age 31 (after their age 30 season). 75-80% of their WAR value comes in those years (pre-age 31). Frank Robinson (as someone alluded to)- 69% of his value came before the age 31 season...31% after.

Someone throw out 10 names -hitters. We can run a some samples -hell...just look at the WAR numbers and you'll see it. The only guys who don't fit are the PED guys....everyone else 1900 to 1992 and from 2010-to today fits within the 80/20 after 30 rule.

[Chuckie]

I'm in favor of seeking the best possible deal for Bruce, but the talk about age 30 here compels me to say that the justification given for trading the best Reds player I have seen in my 61 years as a Reds follower was that he was "an old 30."

Frazier is the best Reds' player you've ever seen?

(Kidding, I know you're talking about Frank Robinson.)

[Cannon]

Kingspoint: James may have run the numbers and come up with differing data. I think players did stay on longer and were more productive during the PED era, but since 2010 things have reverted back to pre-1992 comps.

I do agree that players are probably healthier than they were 50 years ago...i do agree with that. I also agree with the taking better care of their bodies. I agree that there's better medicine.

I think you're forgetting that there's competition --if your opponent is life and bad health. You and you're wife (along with society) is winning some battles. We live longer. The issue with MLB players is not their good health -it's a younger guys better health.

Name 10 players .....any 10 batters. Their most valuable years come pre-age 31 (after their age 30 season). 75-80% of their WAR value comes in those years (pre-age 31). Frank Robinson (as someone alluded to)- 69% of his value came before the age 31 season...31% after.

Someone throw out 10 names -hitters. We can run a some samples -hell...just look at the WAR numbers and you'll see it. The only guys who don't fit are the PED guys....everyone else 1900 to 1992 and from 2010-to today fits within the 80/20 after 30 rule.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ter=&players=0

Even if that split were true (which sounds completely arbitrary anyway) that doesn't mean that a player can't still be useful and productive after 30. Guys like Nelson Cruz and Matt Holliday among others alone shirk your percentage split of WAR. Bruce can be another -- the tools are there, and he missed two of what should have been his most productive years because of injury (most likely).

[marcshoe]

I'm sure this is available somewhere, but what would it look like if you divided a player's years into smaller chunks, say under 23, 23-27, 28-32, 32-36, over 36? There are so many ways to look at this.

[Cannon]

Well that list above only shows production from 31 and on. Still lots of players with a lot left to give after that time. Still plenty who are playing now 31 and beyond who are producing nicely. Bruce doesn't have to be a 5+ WAR player every year after 31 to still be worth a decent contract, and be helpful to the Reds.

[REDREAD]

Well that list above only shows production from 31 and on. Still lots of players with a lot left to give after that time. Still plenty who are playing now 31 and beyond who are producing nicely. Bruce doesn't have to be a 5+ WAR player every year after 31 to still be worth a decent contract, and be helpful to the Reds.

Bruce kind of does need to be a 4-5 WAR player to be worth it to the Reds though at the salary he's getting though.

Here's a random example I pulled. Rajai Davis was readily available last winter, he was coming off a 1.6 WAR season in only 341 ABs.
He got paid 5.25 million in the offseason.
Point being that if a front office is motivated, it should not be that difficult to find 1.5-3 WAR OF fairly inexpensively on the free agent market without surrendering a draft pick. (3 WAR might be pushing it, but in the 1.5-3 WAR range is reasonable)

Bruce has to be a difference maker, let's say 800 OPS or better, plus adequate defense to be worth what he is being paid. He's earning that money this year, and may earn it in the next 3 years as well.. My point is that Bruce actually does need to be a 4 WAR player to be worth what he's being paid. We already have a lot of money tied up in Homer and Votto long term. We can only give long term contracts out to impact players. We can't pay the going free agent rate of 8 million per WAR point or whatever it is (It's very high).

Now the Yankees could afford to pay Bruce 12-20 million per year to be a 2-3 WAR player and not blink an eye, but the Reds can't.

[Cooper]

Cannon: How much more specific can one get? After age 30 season 75 to 80% of a players value has already occurred. Why did i pick after the age 30 season? Because that's when the data shows that players go into their decline phase of their career. With Matt Holiday -70% of his value occurred pre-age 31 season.

Can a player still be valuable --sure ....if his baseline is high enough and if he is farther along to the left of the defensive spectrum...he has farther to decline...he can still be productive. Speedier players who started their careers at a young age tend to sustain their careers longer.

Have any of you guys grown older? Have you somehow gotten younger over the years? This concept is so fundamental that i'm having difficulty understanding why it's hard to grasp on to it.

[Rojo Rijo]

Well that list above only shows production from 31 and on. Still lots of players with a lot left to give after that time. Still plenty who are playing now 31 and beyond who are producing nicely. Bruce doesn't have to be a 5+ WAR player every year after 31 to still be worth a decent contract, and be helpful to the Reds.

Let's take a look at this year

Carlos Beltran - age 39 - .286/.323 19 HRs, 51 RBIs - OPS .986
Daniel Murphy - age 31 - .352/.395 12 HRs, 46 RBIs - OPS .978
Ryan Braun - age 32 - .316/.375 12 HR, 38 RBI - OPS .910
Ben Zobrist - age 35 - .308/.414 9 HR, 41 RBI - OPS .891
David Ortiz - age 40 - .339/.421 18 HR, 59 RBIs - OPS 1.120
Victor Martinez - age 37 - .325/.374 12 HR, 38 RBI - OPS .900
Miguel Cabrera - age 33 - .305/.380 15 HR, 43 RBI - OPS .917
Dustin Pedroia - age 32 - .304/.359 7 HR, 28 RBI - OPS .813
Robinson Cano - age 33 - .301/.359 19 HR, 53 RBI - OPS .921
Ian Kinsler - age 34 - .301/.355 14 HR, 46 RBI - OPS .865
Nelson Cruz - age 35 - .282/.366 16 HR, 46 RBI - OPS .870

Plus others who have had success in other seasons after 31 like Adrian Gonzalez, Alex Rodriguez, Adrian Beltre etc.