Yes and long control plus success creates great potential return.Originally Posted by Z-Fly
Yes and long control plus success creates great potential return.
As I mentioned in my response to westofyou, my opinion about it doesn't any supporting data. I think you need 20 years for a proper sample size, and it has only been about 10 years since players were scared away from taking them when the congressional investigations were going on and the lengthy bans were being imposed. In addition, because being proactive about one's health varies widely in baseball because of the huge percentage of players that come from 3rd World countries, where poverty is the prevalent reason for poor health, questionaires would have to be done for each player and a preventive health score would need to be assigned to them. In baseball, many players struggle with English for a long time, and thus keep themselves closer to their native culture where practicing yoga, avoiding anything that's not good for your body. Being around athletes they are more exposed to healthy lifestyles, but in general, the Europeans lead culturally in this area, followed by the Arabic culture, the Asian cultures, then the US, then South America, then Central America, then Africa. The Aussies don't care what they put in their bodies, as long as it tastes good or feels good. Poking fun at my Aussie friends. I love 'em. Sorry about the tangent, but the bottomline is that my hypothesis that today's athlete, whatever sport that is in, does not begin a decline at 30 anymore, but has added at least two years to that number. Unfortunately, there's no data to support this. You suggest that a younger person with the same knowledge and theoretically, even better health practices, would compete against the older person forcing them to continue to regress at the same pace as before. But, one's decline is independent of what anyone else coming does against them. If I'm 30 and playing at "X" level, at 32, if I haven't lost any flexibility, and in fact, have more through yoga practices, food intake that supports muscle integrity, weight training that retains the same amount of strength, if not more firm, not bulky, and I have an improved ability to focus gained from yoga and other mental practices, and then add to that two more years of experience, I don't see how I won't be a better athlete at 32 instead of 30.
I know from having listened to a 1000 NBA players talk about training over the years that they used to gorge out on the free food at the pre-game buffet, and that food had a lot of junk on the table. All the meat had nitrites and nitrates, along with other added ingredients. Hot dogs, chips, desserts. I don't know if you remember Darnell Valentine, but he was 20 years ahead of his time when it came to being proactive about not putting things into the body that aren't good for it. It is as important to put things into it that are good for it, and within 2 years, nearly every NBA player starts catching on when it comes to their eating habits. Most NBA players are way ahead of the curve in this area. It seems that in the NFL, Defensive players are the best at understanding, "you are what you eat".
"One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."
Now compare that to the list of 33+ guys retired or underperforming their contracts.
Of course there is no magic age where a player falls off a cliff.
This is about playing the odds, and reviewing specific skills that a player has that are likely to age well. Bruce isn't a particularly patient hitter that battles well. He's a power hitter. I could easily see him aging poorly and not being able to make the adjustments as his bat speed slows. Combined with already declining fielding stats, and I don't see him as a great candidate to age smoothly. Don't want to use one of our few free agent rate contracts on an aging Bruce.
REDREAD (06-22-2016)
For what it's worth I am 100% hoping to trade him. I'm just trying to convince myself that he's worth at least one top prospect. I've got my heart set on Bregman but that means it probably won't happen. All I wanted last year in a deal with LA was Grant Holmes and that never happened......
Patrick Bateman (06-22-2016),REDREAD (06-22-2016)
The thing is Bruce has the tools and the pedigree to remain productive into his 30s if he takes care of himself. It has taken him time to get back to where he was (and better, actually) after his injury but it's not like he's some no-name late-bloomer that was never expected to be as good as he is. He's always been a pretty patient hitter with a pretty high strikeout rate, but that comes with power. Why would he suddenly fall off a cliff outside of injury?
Cooper you're not saying anything groundbreaking. Yes, people decline as they get older. I don't understand why you're obsessed with that point. Yes, Bruce is likely to see some decline as he gets older, as do all players.
"If I wanted you to understand I would have explained it better."
- Johan Cruyff, RIP
I'm in love with the idea of prying Zimmer from Cle for Bruce+. Might take a bullpen arm and B prospect of their liking.
Disco stays
Yeah, no way do they win in 2017 without Jay Bruce. We'll likely still be void of Frazier's contributions, Phillips' contributions of the previous 10 years on both sides of the diamond. But, help is on the way...a lot of help. Mesoraco, this year's #1 pick might be here in September, Winker, Suarez will be past his sophomore slump, Duvall should be here. Votto will still have a high OBP. That's plenty of Offense. Our Offense is way ahead of our Pitching. Our Defense sucks. That's going to be one of the challenges. We're stuck with Votto's Defense, which should be worse in two years. We'll have to make up for it with above average Defense at SS, CF, and 2B, as we do now. I don't know anything about Duvall's Defense, but I suspect it's below average. So, LF and 1B will be below average, putting pressure on our young staff to not let hitters pull the ball. If 3B can also get to above average and RF too, we could live with Duvall and Votto Defensively, in order to get their strong bats in the lineup.
"One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."
This is a message board -i thought we discussed the finer points of things and i was attempting to make a finer point. I thought it was interesting. You're welcome to ignore my posts-- but i'm not leaving because you feel my posts aren't groundbreaking enough. You're rude.
Unfortunately, for the REDS when they inked Bruce to the last contract, he was never supposed to see a season with an OPS below .800 until the contract was over. .840-.920 was what he was paid for to produce. We just got done tossing away for nothing a career .800 OPS player in Encarnacion, as we were trying to put together a top-of-the-league Defense to support the quality starting staff we were assembling. Who knew Bruce's excellent Defense in RF of just a few years ago would disappear so quickly.
"One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."
REDREAD (06-22-2016)
Cooper, we'll come back to this subject in 5 years when we have more data. I contend that there will be a higher percentage of a player's career WAR after 30 than what it had consistenly been in the past. Again, there is no data yet post-steroids to form any kind of a conclusion, as there hasn't been enough years to put in the careers of very many players.
"One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."
TRF (06-23-2016)
I think it will be a lot more interesting if it doesn't turn out to be that much different, despite advances in health and nutrition.
Empathy is about standing in someone else's shoes, feeling with his or her heart, seeing with his or her eyes. Not only is empathy hard to outsource and automate, but it makes the world a better place.
-- Daniel H. Pink
King- i think we have enough data to make some assumptions but you may be right re data and whether it's enough. I enjoyed the banter. Take care.
It might say more about baseball than the effects of nutritional knowledge and practices by players. If it doesn't change, then maybe Babe Ruth had it right.
"One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."
With Cespedes out with a wrist injury and Syndergaard having an "elbow flare up" it wouldn't surprise me if the Mets packed it in for this season.
Empathy is about standing in someone else's shoes, feeling with his or her heart, seeing with his or her eyes. Not only is empathy hard to outsource and automate, but it makes the world a better place.
-- Daniel H. Pink
Sorry, but I have a couple of more ideas I have to get off my chest.
Yahtzee or jojo said a couple years ago that data supported the idea that defensive abilities were the first thing effected by age in baseball, as early as 22, 23, or 24. Let's just go with that for now.
I think most would agree that the next thing to go is bat-speed. At what age, we could vary in our opinion, but I would say it correlates with the normal regression in OPS. So, about 30.
But, for ptchers, I have seen consistently the arm-speed disappear almost as soon as they get into the league. I don't think arm-speed can be maintained once a pitcher throws 220 innings early in their careers. The arm itself has it's own career projectory separate from the rest of the body. But, in general, I would say that arm speed begins regressing at age 25. I'm sure there's data out there that tells us when it generally happens.
I do think that leg speed begins it's decline four or five years before bat speed, at about 25 or 26.
Now, projecting what skillset next begins to go, I'd say it was between "focus" and "strength".
I think every one of these skillsets can have their declines begin two to three years later through daily yoga training to help with focus, strength, agility for defense, and even eyesight. Cumin, can possibly improve eyesight, as it has properties that increase bloodflow (good for lot's of things) and that in turn helps the eyes.
Add to yoga a thousand other things one can do to improve their health, and I don't see how the decline in skillsets can't be delayed by years.
"One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."
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