Royals interested in Bruce?

[Cooper]

Idk if u get Bill James website King ...but just other day he reported defense began decline at age 25 so u hit that on nose. He wrote a long article this week about What kinds of players sustain and have long careers - it came down to the age they started career and the players speed. He made the point that speed is the 1 skill that is used for both offense and defense, thus allowing the player to use that skill in different ways (I kno that's simple But he always brings to light things that I forget about). Lastly, he discussed pitchers and how many of the great pitchers didn't get too many innings on their arms before age 26. He reported that too many innings before age 26 leads to a leveling off of a pitchers career...whereas if they wait then they have the frame and oth err supports to have greater success. He did not mention,arm speed nor the effects of Tommy John surgery.

[Kingspoint]

Thanks. Nice info. No, I have never been to his website.

I don't see how he can claim that pitchers never used to throw for a lot of innings before age 26 in the past. In the 20's, 30's and 40's, it was nothing for a pitcher to throw 400 innings in the minors. 300 innings thrown by a pitcher in the minors was commonplace. Can you provide a link to his article? My theory, that I've stated on this site before, is that because so many boys grew up either on farms, or at the very least, had a million physical chores to do every day from the time they could talk, that their whole bodies developed a memory for stamina. They could go out and throw 400 innings in a year, and not need surgery afterwards.

I also think he's wrong about speed being a driving force behind better defense. I think it's not even needed for defense. Anticipation, agility and footwork, focus, fundamentals (so many major league players suck at fundamentals on defense because they were always the best hitter on their team from Little League to College, so they didn't have to learn the fundamentals of Defense to be highly successful), intelligence and using that intelligence to prepare properly in practice and to always know ahead of time what you will do before the ball is hit, confidence (but not cockiness), and quickness are the tools needed to be a great defensive player. Speed is not needed.

I've stated for years that I'm a believer in limiting the types of pitches a developing arm can throw, from Little League until age 27, when I think is when the developing arm matures. It's why Defensive Tackles don't have that "man" strength until they hit 27. There are certain muscles that continue to mature through that age (personal belief I've gleaned through observation). Curveballs should be banned before the age of 16. Split-fingers should be banned through 26. Any pitcher should learn to pitch through control, velocity of a fastball, and changing speeds. That's a repertoire for success for any pitcher at any age. And, of course, I've been a supporter of the 30-rule (increase a pitcher's stamina by increasing his inning count 30 innings from one year to the next, though it should actually be measured by pitch count) ever since Bill James presented the supporting evidence for this from one of his books from the 70's.

[Cooper]

I think i may have reported it wrong ....he reported that many great pitchers didn't have a lot of wear and tear on the arm pre age 26. He mentioned Warren Spahn as an example --not many innings before the age of 26 and then when he hit that age his body could handle the stress of pitching over a long haul. Guys that threw a lot of innings pre age 26 tended to burn out because of the stress -there young bodies could not handle it long term --i think they key words were long term, I know i'm not doing what he said justice ....oh crap, i just realized i'm putting together 2 different Bill James things -- one was an article and the other was a presentation he gave at Cape Cod (rob neyer was sort of the MC of the event). I'm not performing at my best --too tired

[Kingspoint]

Rob Neyer is from here, Portland, I believe.

I forgot to correct my statement. I reread what you wrote and we're talking about just a few pitchers (as Spock said to Kirk on the bus in San Frncisco, "Ahh, The Great Ones") here James is referring to. It only makes sense.

It pisses me off that Dwight Gooden's Manager abused his arm his Rookie season by having him throw way too many innings while consistently using the fastball on 70+% of the pitches. Dwight would have been a great one instead of just incredibly good.

[Mitri]

With Cespedes out with a wrist injury and Syndergaard having an "elbow flare up" it wouldn't surprise me if the Mets packed it in for this season.

Unless Thor's injury becomes season-ending, not a chance.

The Mets have become thee team in NYC. No way they begin dismantling or stunting chances of another playoff run and risk momentum with a growing fanbase. They'll keep going for it, especially when it's the Gnats ahead of them.

If all hell breaks loose between now and the deadline I could see them moving Harvey but that's about it.

[RedlegJake]

It pisses me off that Dwight Gooden's Manager abused his arm his Rookie season by having him throw way too many innings while consistently using the fastball on 70+% of the pitches. Dwight would have been a great one instead of just incredibly good.

The Reds had that problem big time in the 60s - they lost Maloney, Nolan (who resurrected his career as a off speed pitcher) Simpson, McCool - all to overwork at young ages. When Gullett arrived he was abused, too, by today's standards, but Sparky actually limited his workload early on, especially compared to how they treated the other guys I mentioned. Simpson & Nolan were especially egregious cases - when I think what they might have become with proper handling....but you can make a long, long list of great young hurlers through the dark ages of sports science in baseball, from its earliest days to Billy Martin's destruction of Oakland's young staff, that were ruined by overuse and the stupid idea that you simply pitched through pain and discomfort. Every time I hear someone say "Well, a ton of innings didn't hurt Nolan Ryan, or those early guys like Iron Joe McGinnity, I want to reply "Yeah but that same abuse destroyed 50 guys for every one you can name that survived."

[Wonderful Monds]

Cooper, we'll come back to this subject in 5 years when we have more data. I contend that there will be a higher percentage of a player's career WAR after 30 than what it had consistenly been in the past. Again, there is no data yet post-steroids to form any kind of a conclusion, as there hasn't been enough years to put in the careers of very many players.

I would honestly be surprised if there isn't more longevity, just based on the explosion of legal to use dietary supplements alone, not to mention the advances in nutrition, training etc. you mentioned

[Kingspoint]

The Reds had that problem big time in the 60s - they lost Maloney, Nolan (who resurrected his career as a off speed pitcher) Simpson, McCool - all to overwork at young ages. When Gullett arrived he was abused, too, by today's standards, but Sparky actually limited his workload early on, especially compared to how they treated the other guys I mentioned. Simpson & Nolan were especially egregious cases - when I think what they might have become with proper handling....but you can make a long, long list of great young hurlers through the dark ages of sports science in baseball, from its earliest days to Billy Martin's destruction of Oakland's young staff, that were ruined by overuse and the stupid idea that you simply pitched through pain and discomfort. Every time I hear someone say "Well, a ton of innings didn't hurt Nolan Ryan, or those early guys like Iron Joe McGinnity, I want to reply "Yeah but that same abuse destroyed 50 guys for every one you can name that survived."

What Roger Craig did to the Giants staff, making all of them learn the split-finger fastball, was suicidal to their careers. Craig learned it as a Dodger, as overusing pitchers and treating them like chattel was always their philosophy. Just bring up another arm from the endless supply their scouting staff supplied.

I didn't know that about the '60's REDS. Would they have kept Robinson if they hadn't abused the pitching leaving the club unbalanced and in search of more pitching?

[Kingspoint]

So, Bruce had another good day with a couple of doubles, and a couple of runs scored, beginning two rallies that almost got them back in the game against MLB's hottest team in June.

Suarez had a throwing error allowing a run, but had a 3-run blast in the 8th to make it 5-4. Mayne Suarez could move to RF when Bruce leaves, our 1st Rd draft pick can play 3rd Sep 1st?

Duval was in the middle of both rallies, knocking Bruce in to make it 4-1, before getting on after Bruce ahead of Suarez' dinger. Strailey had one bad inning, but otherwise was very effective again.

[Big Klu]

The error was committed by DeJesus (playing 1B tonight), not Suarez.

[Kingspoint]

The error was committed by DeJesus (playing 1B tonight), not Suarez.

Thanks for catching that.

[Ron Madden]

The Reds had that problem big time in the 60s - they lost Maloney, Nolan (who resurrected his career as a off speed pitcher) Simpson, McCool - all to overwork at young ages. When Gullett arrived he was abused, too, by today's standards, but Sparky actually limited his workload early on, especially compared to how they treated the other guys I mentioned. Simpson & Nolan were especially egregious cases - when I think what they might have become with proper handling....but you can make a long, long list of great young hurlers through the dark ages of sports science in baseball, from its earliest days to Billy Martin's destruction of Oakland's young staff, that were ruined by overuse and the stupid idea that you simply pitched through pain and discomfort. Every time I hear someone say "Well, a ton of innings didn't hurt Nolan Ryan, or those early guys like Iron Joe McGinnity, I want to reply "Yeah but that same abuse destroyed 50 guys for every one you can name that survived."

I was 13 yrs old the first time I laid eyes on Gary Nolan pitching in a Reds uniform.
I was amazed to see a kid just five yrs older than me on the mound in Crosley Field pitching for my favorite team.
I can still remember him striking out three Houston Astros in the first inning of his first big league start.

[mth123]

This can be said about a lot of players I guess, but if Gary Nolan hadn't been hurt, he'd dominate the Reds pitching leader boards the way Pete Rose dominates most of the hitting ones. Most people remember him as the junkballer on the 75 & 76 reds. I remember a kid who could throw 99 and carry it deep in the game. We already know that he would have been able to transition when the stuff went away.

[Redeyecat]

In 2013, the Reds top prospects were:

1. Hamilton
2. Stephenson
3. Travieso
4. Ervin
5. Winker
6. Lorenzen
7. Corcino
8. Holmberg
9. Wright
10. Buckley

Nobody on that list I wouldn't hesitate to trade if the Reds had a real shot at winning the World Series.

But let's take some of the hindsight out of it. If you ran another team that needed an OF with pop and had the Reds' current prospects, what is the best package you would give to get Bruce? It's a nice way to put something relatable on the table, while limiting the bias most of us have. Then if we want to really talk plausible trades, we can convert the Reds prospects to comps from other teams.

[Redeyecat]

If you're talking top prospects today, well, the only one I wouldn't trade is Reed. Anyone else on the Reds' 2016 list is fair game as far as I'm concerned.

Yeah, most of us (myself included) would say nobody is off the table, but that doesn't get us very far in terms of what's realistic for Bruce. So if you ran another team that needed an OF with pop and had the Reds' current prospects, what is the best package you would give to get Bruce?