It’s a small sample here, but look at the correlation between successful/unsuccessful high picks and the Reds record ~5 years down the road. That’s the main part of the recipe for good Reds baseball - nail your high picks.
It’s a small sample here, but look at the correlation between successful/unsuccessful high picks and the Reds record ~5 years down the road. That’s the main part of the recipe for good Reds baseball - nail your high picks.
The bolded line seems to have been the cornerstone of Walt Jocketty's success as a GM. He wasn't shy about trading prospects to acquire significant pieces for the major league roster. I think part of that came from know that even in a system that develops a lot of in house talent, a good chunk of that eventual production is going to come from guys who never had much trade value as prospects. There's a certain "bird in the hand" logic that makes a lot of sense at times.Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Tom Servo (05-31-2018)
To me it looks like we are trending towards drafting on tools and athleticism more so than pure baseball skill and production in the past few years.
From 04-11 Stubbs is the only guy we drafted that Id consider a crazy athlete, maybe Leake as well but he also showed production and polish. Then the next few years we had late picks and kind of went with what was there, I liked the Winker pick and the Ervin pick as well, I’m biased living in BHam but he had/has some tools.
Now recently we appear to be drafting more athleticism, but guys with also an idea of how to play the game. Looking at you Trammel/Senzel.
I’m hopeful, and believe the last few drafts will have produced an above average catcher(Stephenson), well above average to all star 2nd baseman(Senzel), and I’m extremely high on Trammell. I see a 280, 360-370, 450 who can be 15 and 40 guy early in his career then maybe a 20-20 guy as he ages. Then with Greene, it’s gonna take some time but he’s got the arm talent and athleticism.
Not too bad. The start of the list pretty solid and where it gets iffy....those guys are still young enough to make their mark. Very recently looks very formidable.
Not having any of those guys really (right now) contributing from the draft from 2011-2014 is what I'm pointing to as one of the biggest reasons we've looked as bad as we have. There's still time with a lot of those guys so it's not like it's a lost cause but the Reds need to draft consistently well. It also doesn't help that Grandal was traded away and he's one of the better catchers in baseball now and Leake was a free agent so quick.
I realize every team can do this, but if we replace R.Stephenson with Joe Panik, Travieso with Corey Seager, Ervin with Aaron Judge, and Nick Howard with Bradley Zimmer just how much better shape this franchise would be in?
JaxRed (06-02-2018)
You can copy this into your original post and then delete mine.
Year Player Position School 2004 Homer Bailey Right-handed pitcher La Grange High School 2005 Jay Bruce Outfielder West Brook Senior High School 2006 Drew Stubbs Outfielder University of Texas at Austin 2007 Devin Mesoraco Catcher Punxsutawney Area High School 2007 Todd Frazier Third baseman Rutgers University–New Brunswick 2007 Kyle Lotzkar Right-handed pitcher South Delta Secondary School 2008 Yonder Alonso First baseman University of Miami 2009 Mike Leake Right-handed pitcher Arizona State University 2009 Bradley Boxberger Right-handed pitcher University of Southern California 2010 Yasmani Grandal Catcher University of Miami 2011 Robert Stephenson Right-handed pitcher Alhambra High School 2012 Nick Travieso Right-handed pitcher Archbishop Edward A. McCarthy High School 2012 Jesse Winker Outfielder Olympia High School 2012 Jeff Gelalich Outfielder University of California 2013 Phillip Ervin Outfielder Samford University 2013 Michael Lorenzen Right-handed pitcher California State University - Fullerton 2014 Nick Howard Right-handed pitcher University of Virginia 2014 Alex Blandino Shortstop Stanford University 2015 Tyler Stephenson Catcher Kennesaw Mountain High School 2016 Nick Senzel Third Baseman University of Tennessee 2016 Taylor Trammell Outfielder Mount Paran Christian School 2017 Hunter Greene Right-handed pitcher Notre Dame High School 2017 Jeter Downs Shortstop Monsignor Edward Pace High School
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
Plus Plus (06-02-2018)
ML Regular- Bailey, Bruce, Stubbs, Mesoraco, Frazier, Alonson, Leake, Grandal (8)
ML BU/Relief - Boxberger, Lorenzen, Ervin, Blandino (4)
Bust - Lotzkar, Howard, Gelalich (3)
Still Percolating - Stephenson, Winker, Travieso, T Stephenson, Senzel, Trammell, Greene, Downs (8)
Of 23 first round picks since 04, 8 have made it as ML regulars (not all while with the Reds)
4 have made the majors in more limited roles, 3 have been outright busts, and 8 are still in the learning curve (though Stephenson and Winker are very near and have to prove themselves real soon)
I don't think the Reds have done much worse than almost all ML teams in getting regulars and bench players from their top picks - the burn is the fact that none have become star players. You'd think in 14 years they would have at least #1 pick who became a consistent star impact player. Bailey and Bruce just don't make the grade although they were very good in their best seasons. Of course they have Votto, a second rounder but the #1s have been decidedly ho-hum. Sure hope a couple three of the last 5 guys on that "still percolating" list can break the mold.
99% of all numbers only tell 33% of the story so when looking at the numbers remember that numbers is plural...
Regarding the Chris Buckley regime...
The 2007, 2009 and 2016 drafts were outstanding.
The 2006 and 2010 drafts were OK.
The 2011 and 2013 drafts might end up tolerable.
2015 and 2017 have good potential.
The 2012 and 2014 drafts were huge whiffs. I hated those two drafts at the time, and unfortunately history has proven those fears correct. 2011 and 2013 could still end up in that category, although they have more hope (2013 could produce three major league pitchers in Lorenzen, Lively and Mahle), and I'm a sucker for Robert Stephenson (who along with Cingrani) could still give that draft two major league pitchers.
In addition to not being able to draft and develop a superstar, the other pock mark on Buckley's resume is his general inability to find major leaguers after the first 100 picks. It's not easy for anyone, but I'd venture the Reds track record is worse than most teams on Day 2 (rounds 3-10). Tyler Mahle has been a lone bright spot since 2009. Tucker Barnhart and Justin Turner were late bloomers before that.
Last edited by Benihana; 06-01-2018 at 04:46 PM.
Go BLUE!!!
I'm only looking at round 3 because I don't have a ton of time right this second. But from 2006-2014 here's how the numbers stack up:
Total 3rd rounders to make the Major Leagues (who signed as 3rd rounders - some guys, like Matt Harvey for example, were drafted as 3rd rounders but didn't sign and were later drafted and signed and made the Majors): 104.
Total 3rd rounders with more than 3.0 WAR: 19
Best 3rd round picks: Kyle Seager, Jonathan Lucroy, Craig Kimbrell, Danny Duffy, Joe Smith, Zach Britton, JT Realmuto (this ends the list of players with 10+ WAR).
Team with the most big leaguers from the 3rd round: The Reds and the Brewers have 6. The Brewers got 20.1 WAR from Lucroy and 3.9 from Tyler Thornburg. The Reds got 2.4 from Cingrani.
No team had more than two players with more than 2.0 WAR from the 3rd round. The Nationals and Royals were the only teams that had two guys above 5.0 (Espinosa, Souza - Duffy, Myers).
Drafts, in any sport, are pretty much a crap shoot. A lot of variables involved, such as ... where they played? what was the level of competition? You look at an 18-19 year old kid and you see talent (potential). And that's about the only thing you can get right at this stage. The successive stages aren't so certain. You throw them in the system to see if that potential can be developed, and they progress.
I look at the provided list and, IMO, I see a few guys that have had success at the ML level ... Bruce, Leake, Bailey, Yonder, and Grandal.
There could be sound argument that Bailey shouldn't be there (LOL). I always liked Leake, and he's had consistent success at this level, and for 9 years (career numbers not too shabby, respectable). Definitely a better career then Homer. Bruce would be the top of the class IMO. The rest, for the most part, may still be playing at this level, but they never rose to the level we thought they would, and are getting tossed around the league.
Then I go back a few more years to 1997, and 1st round pick Brandon Larson. Boy was this kid hyped, and we all know what happened there (LOL). But check out this article, from this past January, on Larson. Quite impressive testimony, and perspective on it all, by this young man.... http://cincinnatireds.blog.daytondai...randon-larson/
And I don't fault the Reds management for that (due to the above). I bet if you looked at most organization's draft history there would be far more busts then real success.
Last edited by GAC; 06-05-2018 at 04:45 AM.
"In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)
cumberlandreds (06-05-2018)
Discussion about this years draft picks should be in the minor league forum.
Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"
https://redsintelligence.com/smforum/index.php
The Reds top 3ish prospects in their entire org over the last 5-8 years are:
Billy
Stephenson
Winker
All three..massively flawed individual players (In multiple areas) that seemingly didn't develop or improve any of their lesser skills while in the minors.
How can anyone be confident that even players like Senz, Greene or India will ever shine in the majors? Green has a nearly 7 era, Senz hitting .260s w 790 ops
Last edited by TampaBengal; 06-05-2018 at 08:53 PM.
He's 18 and has a 2.91 ERA in his last 5 games, chill rando.
“I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”
GAC (06-06-2018)
Wow Greene has given up 7 ER over his last 5 games, spanning 21.2 innings
he has a 1.7 WHIP in A ball. not good. Oh, and you didnt answer my question, rando.
And, I can tell you are one of those "well if you just removed his two 4 ER starts and his 7 ER start, his era in the other games is 2.8." kinda guys
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