The NBA.com O rating is trash. Gives a credit for standing there and doing nothing while other players score. It's a bad statistic and, far as I can tell, the analytics community completely disregards it.Originally Posted by Kingspoint
The NBA.com O rating is trash. Gives a credit for standing there and doing nothing while other players score. It's a bad statistic and, far as I can tell, the analytics community completely disregards it.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
The analytics community is not a community, but made up in your own mind. It doesn't meet your narrative, so you disregard it.
NBA Coaches do regard it. NBA G.M.'s do regard it. I'll take their opinions over yours or your so-called made-up analytics community any day.
"One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."
Here's the definition of Offensive Rating from nba.com:
https://www.nba.com/stats/help/glossary/Definition Measures a team's points scored per 100 possessions. On a player level this statistic is team points scored per 100 possessions while he is on court
Surely, you understand how that statistic is broken when it comes to high-minutes starters on high-scoring units who are also low-volume scorers with low-usage rates. That metric dramatically over-estimates the actual offensive contributions of guys like Covington, Royce O'Neale, Gary Harris, etc. Yes, they have to put up solid rate stats in limited touches, but they're not driving the team's offense. To the contrary, their offensive rating, using the nba.com formula, is quite certainly driven by the players who are actually driving the offense.
M2 is correct- that rating is, especially for those kind of players, is mostly built by simply being on the court while better high-usage players are hitting their shots.
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams
M2 (04-05-2021)
Of course....if said player only spends his minutes with the same four players all the time. But, as anyone with half a brain knows, this is not the case. So, guys who spend a lot of their time together with Gobert or Giannis will have higher than normal Defensive Ratings, as will players who spend a lot of their time with PG or Kawhi will have higher than normal Defensive Ratings. Guys who spend a lot of their time with Enes Kanter or Damian Lillard will have higher than normal Offensive Ratings.
There aren't any statistics in basketball that meaure the Offensive worth or Defensive worth of a player. All statistics have to be taken together, and this is where my analysis can be better than someone else's or vice-versa. Placing value on a statistic is subjective and the experience and ability of the analyst determines their worth more than the statistic itself. When NBA Coaches and NBA G.M.'s quote Offensive Ratings and Defensive Ratings, they do so, because their experience tells them that it has value and it shows some measure of the player's worth. Their opinion matters more than some made up so-called "analytics community", who generally have about as much knowledge about basketball as I had 35 years ago. My 35 years of added experience far exceeds anything they'll ever know about the game.
RoCo leaves the game half-way through the 3rd Qtr. Lillard stays in the game the entire 3rd Qtr. RoCo returns when Lillard leaves. So, RoCo benefits by having Lillard with him for some time, but C.J. missed 25 games and Nurk 32 games. RoCo has been playing alongside Derrick Jones Jr. even more than he has with Dame all season long. They tend to come in and go out together, except for the last five minutes of games, where it was Melo instead. Stotts liked the frontline of RoCo/Kanter/Melo a lot. Never mind that the Blazers have the same record as the Lakers and Nuggets and Clippers even though they've missed half of their lineup for the season, unlike those three teams have. For them to win these games, others besides Dame have to be playing exceptionally well. RoCo is one of them. Kanter is one of them. Melo has been one of them. Melo has been as clutch as Dame the last five minutes of close games. It's part of why they are 21-7 in those games. If you want to try to sway an idea one direction, you should get your facts straight first. Just like I said he would be when we signed him, RoCo has been an excellent 3-point shooter, while playing excellent Defense, too. Since Nurk and Powell joined the team, the Blazers have the 2nd best Net Rating. That's important. It's just six games, but they are only beginning to become familiar with playing each other. As eash week passes they'll do nothing but get better and better. Then RoCo will be even better as he's carried the team on his back Defensively for the entire season. He's finally getting some help with Nurkic and Powell (Trent was not good Defensively...put the effort in too sporadically), while DJJ gets to help the 2nd unit now, which helps Kanter (now with the 2nd Unit) and Melo defensively.
RoCo benefits from his minutes that he plays with Dame and Kanter, but Dame and Kanter benefit from RoCo shooting 50% from three for the last five weeks, too. RoCo has a higher 3-pt shooting percentage than Lillard for the season, and that was after Covington's disastrous start. Covington has the same percentage as Trent on the year. Both are at about 39% right now. Covington will be passing 40% shortly.
Also, if you knew anything about Lillard, you'd know that he spends the 1st Quarter, and most of the first half distributing the ball, not taking shots. So, this idea of Covington benefitting in Offensive Rating because Lillard is hitting shots in nonsense. When Lillard begins to take his shot is the 2nd half of the 3rd Quarter, when Covington is out of the game. Dame takes it upon himself that this is his time to be aggressive, when the 2nd Unit Frontcourt is on the floor with him (and C.J. leaves 3 minutes later). And, then the last five minutes of games, Dame shoots. The rest of the time, Dame is distributing, where others need to be making shots. Covington's 4th-in-the-NBA Offensive Rating is as much on him as it is on Kanter or Dame.
Last edited by Kingspoint; 04-05-2021 at 12:53 AM.
"One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."
They value the version created by Dean Oliver, who's worked for a host of different teams. That is not the version NBA.com is using. They post a clumsy approximation of the stat. There's a host of quality NBA number crunching sites and authors, they all reference O and D rating, none of them I've seen use the NBA.com version. You're the one using a bad stat because you like the lies it's telling you.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
SteelSD (04-05-2021)
As anyone who understands basketball basics (or if you needed a refresher course, just watch the Pac-12 games in the NCAA tournament as it was all about creating a more effecient Offense through superior Defense that gives an Offensive team higher percentage attempts on Offense whether that's an open three on a fastbreak or being able to get a shot off against a team before they can get their defense set), Robert Covington does things Defensively that creates more efficient Offense. He led the league in Steals in March. His high number of blocks lead to transition opportunities and Offensive flow. He's 2nd in the NBA in deflections. 2 or 3 times a game he switches to a driver to the basket forcing that player to negate his FG attempt for instead an errant pass that's deflected by another Blazer leading to an efficient opportunity. There's so much more he does, but the Defense inspires the Offense to shoot at a higher percentage because he's a momentum changer. He's the only player in the NBA to make 45 '3''s at a 50%+ clip in March. Yes, M2, despite your insistance that he can't by quoting ridiculous stats that are unrelated, Robert Covington is a good 3-pt shooter, just as I said at the beginning of the season he would prove himself to be. He's even better in the clutch as a shooter. Between him, Melo (4th overall in the NBA in made '3''s in the 4th Qtr, because, well, that's what he does and has always done, just like in the bubble, and just like I said he would before the season began), and Dame, no lead was safe for an opponent against the Blazers. RoCo's Offensive Rating is high because when he's on the floor, better opportunities become available for him and his teammates, in addition to having spent half his minutes with Kanter and Dame. Melo's had to adjust to a reserve role for the first time in his life. It was different at first, but his FG% has increased each month this season.
We play at UTA Thursday (and at the Clippers Tuesday). UTA is 21-0 at home, and probably 22-0 or 23-0 by then. In Boston's 40-1 season, it was the Blazers who gave them their only loss. UTA has had fans all season. Blazers have yet to have any. Would still love to give them their first loss. But, first, got to take care of the Clippers.
obert Covington does things Defensively
"One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."
KP, anyone with any real analytics experience can take one look at the nba.com version of Offensive Rating and understand that it's junk. That version of the metric is simply an attempt to attribute a team stat to an individual player. In short, it fails just beyond the formula level. While it measures what it's supposed to measure, what it measures isn't all that useful. It suggests that a player MIGHT be good offensively, but a deeper look shatters that illusion.
Of the 16 different lineups where Covington has been a part of for 20 minutes or more, 14 of them are with Lillard. Eleven of those lineups- including all five >50 minutes and seven of eight of >40 minutes are with Lillard and either McCollum or Trent. That's 65% of Covington's 2020-21 minutes and I'm not including the remainder of the lineups below 20 minutes where Covington and Lillard are on the court together. He's tied to Lillard's hip and, even more so, to having multiple higher-usage scorers on the court at the same time with him. Especially in cases where we see his player type, the O-rating is an overwhelming reflection of who he plays with rather than a mark of individual accomplishment.
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams
M2 (04-05-2021)
Apparently that's not you because you seem unable to grasp that the NBA.com version of O rating is deficient.
Also, what happened to your team the other night against Milwaukee? I thought that was a guaranteed win that would vault them into 4th place. Yet, still in 6th. You seem to have Portland confused with Denver.
Last edited by M2; 04-05-2021 at 10:44 AM.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
SteelSD (04-05-2021)
If - and it's a big if - the team is healthy (minus Warren, of course) and Lamb is contributing significantly, they've got a good chance of winning the 7-10 derby.
But even if the above elements worked in their favor, while I like their chances of pulling off a first round upset against virtually anyone, there are two obvious exceptions:
Healthy teams in Brooklyn and Milwaukee, the former of which has too much firepower. And the later (no slouch in the firepower department themselves), have owned the Pacers for years. Even if Indy makes a solid roster/personnel move, the Bucks always seem to one-up them, if not the rest of the conference. I felt that they (Bucks) should have reached the finals last season, but never quite got it together in the bubble.
We will see.
Whatever you do, do your best to not allow the struggles of life to interfere with the pleasures of living.
Dallas with a big win last night vs Utah...
If you have a losing record at Reds games, please stop going.
They're on fire and they have the easiest remaining schedule in the NBA. They could catch up to the 3-6 pile just in front of them even if those teams don't have a major slip up. Yet the Lakers have a hard schedule and they're missing LeBron and AD. So we shouldn't sleep on the potential for the defending champs to find themselves in a playoff game.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Love how Neto completely choked his game-winning 5-footer then went for a Shaqtin'-a-Fool flop as Trent embarrassed him taking his choked miss off the glass, dribbled around him past half court, side-stepped his flop (refs ignored Neto's antics then told the cry-baby after the game to go back to his nursery), then drilled a deep-3 nothing but net game-winner as the buzzer sounded with the ball still in the air to put his stamp on the next stage of a good career. Both he and his father were traded to TOR at the 43rd game of their 3rd season.
"One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."
And the Blazers continued their climb to the 3rd Seed with a 48-pt win on the 2nd night of a back-to-back following the loss to MIL (can't win them all with Nurkic back in the lineup). That's what Champions do. Big game @ LAC tonight, followed with @ UTA Thursday.
Last edited by Kingspoint; 04-06-2021 at 04:44 PM.
"One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."
...and I never said they'd beat MIL. Once again M2, making things up in that swirl of imagery that is your mind regarding what I say about the Blazers and what I don't.
"One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."
You said they'd be 30-18, multiple times. Look, here's one:
Only way they could have gotten to 30-18 was by beating the Bucks. Do you ever get tired of these whiffs?
Last edited by M2; 04-06-2021 at 06:27 PM.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
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