Future Collegiate Conference Realignment

[adkindo]

I'm pretty sure the Gentleman’s Agreement was never real considering how often Florida tried to get fsu into the SEC over the years.

But I wonder now, does ESPN really want the ACC to be destroyed? the big12, heck yeah they did, but they have a lot of money invested in the ACC.

Every report I have ever read over the last 3 decades has claimed that UF would never consider allowing FSU into the SEC.....so I am wondering why you stated that UF tried to get FSU into the SEC?

[adkindo]

It does not mean a whole lot.....but a little interesting nugget. WVU had their '22 Commits in town yesterday and QB Commitment Nicco Marchiol was on Tony Caridi's (play by play guy for WVU) podcast (titled Three Guys Before the Game). They were just talking about WVU and the class with Nicco, and he may have let something slip. He was talking about how he is always promoting WVU to people back home and he said "especially now that we are about to join a new league". Caridi did not acknowledge he said anything and quickly moved on in the discussion.

Maybe there is a totally different meaning that what it sounded like....maybe he meant the American....do not know, but he seemed excited about the news WVU is about to join a new league.

[KronoRed]

Every report I have ever read over the last 3 decades has claimed that UF would never consider allowing FSU into the SEC.....so I am wondering why you stated that UF tried to get FSU into the SEC?

This is of course from way back, but I've read several news articles from the 70's and 60's about UF sponsoring FSU's admission, maybe that changed after FSU snubbed the SEC in 1992 for the ACC but before that..nope.

This article covers some of it
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...id-love-affair

[UKWhoDey]

The Gentleman's agreement between UK, UF, UGA and USC is real. A&M was never part of that.

[adkindo]

The Gentleman's agreement between UK, UF, UGA and USC is real. A&M was never part of that.

This was my understanding as far back as the 1990's.....Louisville, FSU, Georgia Tech and Clemson's application would be dead on arrival because of this coalition.

[WVRed]

The Gentleman's agreement between UK, UF, UGA and USC is real. A&M was never part of that.

*was

That agreement was in place when Mike Slive was commissioner. Money talks and with NIL becoming a fixture the SEC and other conferences are in survival mode.

The SEC is the beneficiary of Bob Bowlsby being caught with his pants down in the middle of it.

[bucksfan2]

I heard that he Grant of Rights for the ACC pretty much means its a non starter for any league to leave, including ND. The contract goes into the 2030's and also any team that leaves, forfeits their money coming from their new conference.

Iowa St and Kansas do nothing for the B1G. I don't see anyway they get added just the two of them.

B1G stands pat unless they get some West Coast teams on board. If they do that, I think they can go to a "split division" with non football schools pretty much only playing the other side of the conference in tournaments.

[adkindo]

I heard that he Grant of Rights for the ACC pretty much means its a non starter for any league to leave, including ND. The contract goes into the 2030's and also any team that leaves, forfeits their money coming from their new conference.

Iowa St and Kansas do nothing for the B1G. I don't see anyway they get added just the two of them.

B1G stands pat unless they get some West Coast teams on board. If they do that, I think they can go to a "split division" with non football schools pretty much only playing the other side of the conference in tournaments.

I think the ACC's GOR goes until 2034. Yes, unless it can be defeated in court, it would be nearly impossible to exit anytime soon. Of course we do not know if there are any loopholes or caveats within the contract that could be used because I do not think the contracts are public. Many believe that the SEC, Clemson and FSU are hoping that Oklahoma and Texas challenge the Big12 GOR in court to evaluate their moves from the outcome of that legal case. If the Big12 would lose, then the floodgates could open.

[bucksfan2]

I think the ACC's GOR goes until 2034. Yes, unless it can be defeated in court, it would be nearly impossible to exit anytime soon. Of course we do not know if there are any loopholes or caveats within the contract that could be used because I do not think the contracts are public. Many believe that the SEC, Clemson and FSU are hoping that Oklahoma and Texas challenge the Big12 GOR in court to evaluate their moves from the outcome of that legal case. If the Big12 would lose, then the floodgates could open.

Couple of things I found out recently:

Nebraska left the B12 for the stability of the B1G. They didn't want to deal with Texas anymore.

Rumor is that Texas and Oklahoma reached out to the B1G but the B1G was not enamored with Oklahoma's non-football stuff.

OSU for years has played nice in the B1G, they continue to toe the line and use their weight through back channels.

Now just talking out loud, I don't see what is in it for Clemson and FSU. I think Clemson is in a place where they aren't a blue blood and their success is directly tied to a coach. Why would they want to leave a league where they are top dog, have a chance to win the title, and don't have to deal with the SEC schedule. Clemson is one bad coaching hire away from being a middle of the pack ACC team, and probably a bottom feeder in the SEC. Bowden is to FSU and Dabo is to Clemson.

I guess the big question is what does a blue blood or legit football power get by leaving their current conference and joining the SEC? Oklahoma has an easy path to the playoffs that just got markedly harder. Clemson wants to go and play Georgia and Florida every year and then LSU, Bama, Auburn on rotation?

[Chip R]

Couple of things I found out recently:

Nebraska left the B12 for the stability of the B1G. They didn't want to deal with Texas anymore.

Rumor is that Texas and Oklahoma reached out to the B1G but the B1G was not enamored with Oklahoma's non-football stuff.

OSU for years has played nice in the B1G, they continue to toe the line and use their weight through back channels.

Now just talking out loud, I don't see what is in it for Clemson and FSU. I think Clemson is in a place where they aren't a blue blood and their success is directly tied to a coach. Why would they want to leave a league where they are top dog, have a chance to win the title, and don't have to deal with the SEC schedule. Clemson is one bad coaching hire away from being a middle of the pack ACC team, and probably a bottom feeder in the SEC. Bowden is to FSU and Dabo is to Clemson.

I guess the big question is what does a blue blood or legit football power get by leaving their current conference and joining the SEC? Oklahoma has an easy path to the playoffs that just got markedly harder. Clemson wants to go and play Georgia and Florida every year and then LSU, Bama, Auburn on rotation?

Hard to say. Who knows what goes on with the intraconference politics? My guess is FSU and Clemson want to join the SEC for the same reason FSU and Miami joined the ACC. They wanted a bigger deal and were worried about getting left behind. Seems like the SEC wants to make one superconference and keep all that sweet TV money for themselves. There have been rumors about them poaching Michigan and OSU too. If that actually happened the next logical move would to be to go after Notre Dame. If that happened every other conference east of the Rockies would be irrelevant. I doubt if OSU and Michigan leave but who thought OU and Texas would jump?

[Slyder]

Hard to say. Who knows what goes on with the intraconference politics? My guess is FSU and Clemson want to join the SEC for the same reason FSU and Miami joined the ACC. They wanted a bigger deal and were worried about getting left behind. Seems like the SEC wants to make one superconference and keep all that sweet TV money for themselves. There have been rumors about them poaching Michigan and OSU too. If that actually happened the next logical move would to be to go after Notre Dame. If that happened every other conference east of the Rockies would be irrelevant. I doubt if OSU and Michigan leave but who thought OU and Texas would jump?

Texas was the driving force in the Big 12. They didn't want expansion beyond 10 and thus Big 12 never expanded, at least that was the main rumor. Oklahoma is following because they knew what was coming, I'm in awe that the commish got caught with his pants down this badly. Many WVU fans knew this wasn't a long term solution but it was better than getting stuck in the AAC and praying the next round went better. The only real shocking thing for me at least was the SEC were the ones to pull the trigger, I figured the Pac 20 would get the job done with Texas and Oklahoma plus little sisters.

[adkindo]

Couple of things I found out recently:

Nebraska left the B12 for the stability of the B1G. They didn't want to deal with Texas anymore.

Rumor is that Texas and Oklahoma reached out to the B1G but the B1G was not enamored with Oklahoma's non-football stuff.

OSU for years has played nice in the B1G, they continue to toe the line and use their weight through back channels.

Now just talking out loud, I don't see what is in it for Clemson and FSU. I think Clemson is in a place where they aren't a blue blood and their success is directly tied to a coach. Why would they want to leave a league where they are top dog, have a chance to win the title, and don't have to deal with the SEC schedule. Clemson is one bad coaching hire away from being a middle of the pack ACC team, and probably a bottom feeder in the SEC. Bowden is to FSU and Dabo is to Clemson.

I guess the big question is what does a blue blood or legit football power get by leaving their current conference and joining the SEC? Oklahoma has an easy path to the playoffs that just got markedly harder. Clemson wants to go and play Georgia and Florida every year and then LSU, Bama, Auburn on rotation?

just my opinion....no better or worse than anyone else's...

- I have doubts about the Big10 not being interested in Oklahoma and Texas. Just these are two massive historical brands that would have helped close the gap (maybe completely) between the Big10 and SEC.

- I agree Clemson could diminish in brand with a few bad decisions...but have you looked around the ACC? Clemson has a pretty high floor in the ACC and I do not see them dropping to the middle of the ACC. The were probably the 2nd or 3rd best football brand in the ACC before Dabo took over. The ACC has some great schools and brands like UVa and UNC....but in actual quality on the field they were behind the Big12 in recent years.

- Clemson would bounce to the ACC because money is more important than glory for most of these decision makers. I do not mean this to come off as condescending, but you have to take off "The Ohio State University" glasses and view it from Clemson's perspective. Clemson has a very different mission than OSU, does not have the history of excellence as an institution or nearly the financial stability as Ohio State (OSU endowment over $5 Billion....Clemson endowment less than $800 Million). I am just saying that Ohio State has the ability and stability to take positions related to history, academics, etc. that it is often unfair to expect other Universities to take similar positions. None of that is to bash Clemson, they are fine public university that have strong academics and history....just not on the level of Ohio State. Maybe I am a little sensitive when people view WVU in a negative light because of metrics without understanding those numbers can only improve slightly because the mission of the University is very different than Ohio State and even Clemson. WVU simply could never be a Top 100 university without totally redoing the school mission.....but the mission of a public university has to be in the interest of the community it serves, and WV needs WVU and Marshall (their two "major" universities) to have high acceptance rates, etc. Again, none of this is to suggest I do not understand why conferences like the Big10 demand specific academic requirements because there are billions of dollars moving behind the scenes related to research sharing, etc. So while I understand fully why WVU does not belong in the Big10, it annoys me when some Big10 supporters look down on schools like WVU as if the schools are competing in the same environment with similar missions. Sorry about the rabbit hole rant.

[adkindo]

Texas was the driving force in the Big 12. They didn't want expansion beyond 10 and thus Big 12 never expanded, at least that was the main rumor. Oklahoma is following because they knew what was coming, I'm in awe that the commish got caught with his pants down this badly. Many WVU fans knew this wasn't a long term solution but it was better than getting stuck in the AAC and praying the next round went better. The only real shocking thing for me at least was the SEC were the ones to pull the trigger, I figured the Pac 20 would get the job done with Texas and Oklahoma plus little sisters.

Here is how voting worked in the Big 12.....Texas took a position...often Texas Tech, Baylor and TCU would vote however Texas wanted them to vote....then Oklahoma always followed Texas' lead, and Oklahoma State always voted with Oklahoma. WVU, Kansas, Iowa State and Kansas State would realize their votes were worthless, and would just vote with the majority to signal a fictitious unity. Bob Bowlsby was a shill for Texas.

Texas never cared about the Big12 or any other member in the Big12....therefore they would never vote for expansion. They did not care about 3 years down the line....they only cared about today because they knew they could exit at any time. If the Big12 would have added a Cincinnati and UCF 5 years ago, it would still hurt very bad for Texas and Oklahoma to exit the Big12, but it would be better than it is now because at this point odds are Cincinnati and UCF would be viewed similar to a Utah or TCU....legitimate P5 programs.

[adkindo]

I did some profiles on potential Big12 expansion candidates....and I will just paste them here if anyone cares. These are the 11 schools I have heard mentioned in the situation where there is not more major movement, and the remaining 8 stay together and look to add 2-8 teams.

Candidate - BYU
Current Affiliation - Independent
Enrollment - 33,517
TV Market Ranking - 30th (SLC)
US News Ranking - #80
Distance from WVU - 1,920 miles
Last 5 Years Record (overall) - 38-26
Last 5 Years Record (vs. P5) - 7-13
Last 5 Years Record (vs. ranked teams) - 4-8
Bowls in last 5 years - Boca Raton, Hawaii, Famous Idaho Potato, Poinsettia
Endowment - $1.97 Billion

Candidate - Cincinnati
Current Affiliation - AAC
Enrollment - 43,691
TV Market Ranking - 36th
US News Ranking - #143
Distance from WVU - 300 miles
Last 5 Years Record (overall) - 39-22
Last 5 Years Record (vs. P5) - 5-3
Last 5 Years Record (vs. ranked teams) - 4-9
Bowls in last 5 years - Peach, Birmingham, Military
Endowment - $1.60 Billion

Candidate - UCF
Current Affiliation - AAC
Enrollment - 66,183
TV Market Ranking - 17th
US News Ranking - #160
Distance from WVU - 900 miles
Last 5 Years Record (overall) - 47-15
Last 5 Years Record (vs. P5) - 5-4
Last 5 Years Record (vs. ranked teams) - 4-4
Bowls in last 5 years - Cure, Peach, Fiesta, Gasparilla, Boca Raton
Endowment - $155 Million

Candidate - USF
Current Affiliation - AAC
Enrollment - 49,591
TV Market Ranking - 13th
US News Ranking - #103
Distance from WVU - 950 miles
Last 5 Years Record (overall) - 33-26
Last 5 Years Record (vs. P5) - 6-4
Last 5 Years Record (vs. ranked teams) - 1-9
Bowls in last 5 years - Birmingham, Birmingham. Gasparilla
Endowment - $532 Million

Candidate - Memphis
Current Affiliation - AAC
Enrollment - 20,585
TV Market Ranking - 51st
US News Ranking - #258
Distance from WVU - 750 miles
Last 5 Years Record (overall) - 46-19
Last 5 Years Record (vs. P5) - 3-4
Last 5 Years Record (vs. ranked teams) - 5-7
Bowls in last 5 years - Boca Raton, Liberty, Birmingham, Cotton, Montgomery
Endowment - $220 Million

Candidate - Houston
Current Affiliation - AAC
Enrollment - 45,364
TV Market Ranking - 8th
US News Ranking - #176
Distance from WVU - 1,340 miles
Last 5 Years Record (overall) - 31-27
Last 5 Years Record (vs. P5) - 4-4
Last 5 Years Record (vs. ranked teams) - 4-10
Bowls in last 5 years - Las Vegas, Hawaii, Armed Forces
Endowment - $960 Million

Candidate - Boise State
Current Affiliation - MWC
Enrollment - 22,113
TV Market Ranking - 101st
US News Ranking - >#298
Distance from WVU - 2,200 miles
Last 5 Years Record (overall) - 48-13
Last 5 Years Record (vs. P5) - 4-5
Last 5 Years Record (vs. ranked teams) - 4-5
Bowls in last 5 years - Cactus, Las Vegas, Las Vegas
Endowment - $114 Million

Candidate - SMU
Current Affiliation - AAC
Enrollment - 11,739
TV Market Ranking - 5th
US News Ranking - #66
Distance from WVU - 1,205
Last 5 Years Record (overall) - 34-26
Last 5 Years Record (vs. P5) - 1-5
Last 5 Years Record (vs. ranked teams) - 4-9
Bowls in last 5 years - Frisco, Boca Raton
Endowment - $1.50 Billion

Candidate - San Diego State U.
Current Affiliation - MWC
Enrollment - 33,738
TV Market Ranking - 27th
US News Ranking - #143
Distance from WVU - 2,430 miles
Last 5 Years Record (overall) - 42-19
Last 5 Years Record (vs. P5) - 5-1
Last 5 Years Record (vs. ranked teams) - 2-2
Bowls in last 5 years - Las Vegas, Armed Forces, Frisco, New Mexico
Endowment - $353 Million

Candidate - Utah State
Current Affiliation - MWC
Enrollment - 28,118
TV Market Ranking - 30th (SLC)
US News Ranking - #241
Distance from WVU - 1,900 miles
Last 5 Years Record (overall) - 28-29
Last 5 Years Record (vs. P5) - 0-6
Last 5 Years Record (vs. ranked teams) - 0-6
Bowls in last 5 years - Arizona, New Mexico, Frisco
Endowment - $427 Million

Candidate - Colorado State
Current Affiliation - MWC
Enrollment - 33,413
TV Market Ranking - 16th (Denver)
US News Ranking - #153
Distance from WVU - 1,520 miles
Last 5 Years Record (overall) - 22-32
Last 5 Years Record (vs. P5) - 2-7
Last 5 Years Record (vs. ranked teams) - 0-4
Bowls in last 5 years - Famous Idaho Potato, New Mexico
Endowment - $512 Million

[adkindo]

^^^if it was my decision, I would move the footprint east and add 4 schools.

1. UCF
2. Cincinnati
3. USF
4. Memphis

I would have 2 Divisions...

East
WVU
Cincinnati
Memphis
UCF
USF
Iowa State

West

Oklahoma State
Kansas
Kansas State
TCU
Baylor
Texas Tech

I could be convinced to add 2 more and include...

5. Houston
6. SMU

East
WVU
Kansas
Cincinnati
Memphis
UCF
USF
Iowa State

West

Oklahoma State
Kansas State
TCU
Baylor
Texas Tech
SMU
Houston

It is not great...but it could be a fun league that would likely hold onto their autonomous designation for the near future.