Anyone referring to their supposed fellow fans as being “butthurt” when the management sells off a bunch of fan favorites in salary dumps because the owners are depraved cheapskates, is fair game for being called out as a troll. Not even touching on all of the purposeful obtuseness on top of that.Originally Posted by RedTeamGo!
To be fair, I missed the butthurt comments. It was pretty fast and furious earlier.
What would you say.....ya do here?
Wonderful Monds (03-31-2022)
Free agents not signing here has nothing to do with this offseason, though. The Reds have never really been able to sign quality FAs. I laid out before why the Cast signing was a perfect storm situation. If he had received the same offer from nearly any other team he would have taken it over the Reds, and it has nothing to do with how the FO operates.
What would you say.....ya do here?
I think you may be mistaking my (and others) skepticism for "not giving it a chance". I'm watching, I'm hoping but it feels like a bad re-run
Old school 1983 (04-01-2022)
I said butthurt because there was little analysis of the deals and the returns and just crying by a few here. The analysis by some was very superficial and short sided to the point where any response to it was memes, one word text message type responses, or drug references. People are acting like the Reds got nothing out of the deals and will soon be trying to move guys like India, will be selling off Castillo and Mahle for pennies on the dollar, won’t sign a good FA ever again, or never spending over $95M again in a season. In other threads I asked posters what the Reds should have gotten for Winker and Suarez from the Ms and was not given a legit response. After while the hyperbole or lack of true response comes off as butthurt. I’m upset Winker is gone, the rest, honestly I’m kinda meh about. But that doesn’t mean that I’m going to pretend everything they got in return is garbage, the Reds didn’t bring in a few solid MLB players this off-season, the Reds will never sign a good FA again, and the Reds won’t raise the payroll back up when the younger guys establish themselves.
That’s fair. And I appreciate the discourse.
MoneyInTheBank (04-01-2022)
And I said you were trollish because you ignore basic facts (ie, payroll has largely stayed in the same or dropped in terms of percentage) in favor of your narrative (the Reds spend lots and lots of money at times and are just peak and valleying as a "normal" team does).
Someone who purposefully ignores an argument that proves his opinion invalid-- as you have exhibited-- is trolling. LP showed that the Reds have not increased spending as the poster claimed-- the spending percentages have only stayed below 48% or dropped throughout the years this group has had controlling interest. That's not an opinion-- it's fact. Further, obscuring those facts by moving goalposts (they've never lied, one lie, one lie that matters, lies that aren't typical GM speak, lies bother but oh well) or by changing your claim ($95M base salary) aren't exactly great looks either. Neither is telling someone they're butthurt. All are examples of trollish behavior.
I'm fine with your opinion-- that Red ownership will now magically decide to grow their hearts three sizes this time for sure and plow payflex back into the team because *reasons* despite the fact that they've NEVER done that before-- standing on its own as an opinion. You won't hear me say a thing about it, other than I think it's remarkably naive. (As others have already written.)
The rest of it is trollish.
And I see the semantic argument between being a troll and acting trollish and can have that conversation too, if you'd like. There's a difference between being and acting. In this case, you're acting like a troll. I'm sure I've done it before. So have many who've posted on this board.
LeatherPants (04-01-2022)
Come on man -- look at the "added pieces" they've brought in since January 1 (source: https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/teams/.../transactions/)
Tommy Pham - 1 year contract
Hunter Stickland - 1 year contract
Donovan Solano - 1 year contract
Colin Moran - 1 year contract
This is garbage / dumpster diving. This is, in absolutely no way, an effort to win or compete in any meaningful sense. Ownership is offering precisely zero (0) market rate contracts to quality ballplayers in free agency. They're committing no money past this year to anyone. Every move they've made has been to cut long-term costs and add young, cheap prospects. It's the same nonsense we dealt with during the Lost Decade, where the club chased this fairy tale of a full team of 25 year olds, all making pre-arb money and winning a World Series on the budget of a used family sedan.
And the joke of all this is that the club isn't even willing to spend a bit of money to get better prospects. They could've undoubtedly got a better return by trading Winker straight up somewhere and not forcing a team to take on Suarez's salary -- but they didn't, because the real goal of the Winker trade was to get Suarez's contract off the books. They could've gotten literally anything for Wade Miley if they'd spent the $2M to pick up his option and then trade him, but they just cut the man and let him walk for no return to save a buck.
I don't get standing up for this business model. They're pissing on your head and offering to sell you a Reds-logo umbrella.
Cincinnati Reds: Farm System Champions 2022
alwaysawarrior (04-01-2022),REDREAD (04-02-2022),Wonderful Monds (04-01-2022)
I know these are taken from another thread, but I do expect posters to have a singular voice and opinion. That could be on me.
e: Winker and Suarez traded to Seattle
Originally Posted by LeatherPants
You have to spend money on somebody. Reds have $44 million of guaranteed money on the books for next year, and Votto and Moose account for all of it.
My response:
It’s almost like the plan was to get younger. Let prospects sink or swim this year and invest in vets in a targeted fashion next offseason.
Re: Winker and Suarez traded to Seattle
Originally Posted by Old school 1983
It’s almost like the plan was to get younger. Let prospects sink or swim this year and invest in vets in a targeted fashion next offseason.
Leather Pants:
They might even break $75 million in payroll next year doing that. Fantastic.
Here’s the link if you think I’m a troll and fudging things: https://www.redszone.com/forums/show...Seattle/page66
It was clear we were talking 2022 and 2023 dollars. Leather Pants then tried to adjust for inflation for 2010 to show it’s really $75M.
His belief is the Reds won’t spend any of the money that has come off the books in future seasons, despite his own percentage of revenue analysis demonstrating that this is clearly not the case in recent years. There’s no reason to believe they won’t go back to normal spending habits or at least closer to them to supplement the devolving prospect talent when the time comes. Events as recent as the 2019-2020 off-season show this. The Reds have gone beyond triplicate of $44M in recent years and double $75M in recent years. Again, Leather Pants’s own work shows this. Unless the team is on the verge of economic collapse, there is zero reason to believe that the Reds will have a $75M roster in 2023 let alone a $45M one.
As far as what the Reds budget is for the MLB team, we can glean knowledge from analytics like the one Learherpants did, but we will never actually know unless the team is forced to show an actual public accounting of its finances. For all we know the team took a bigger loss during COVID and they have to make it up. Maybe they are just pocketing it. It doesn’t matter. They will do what they will do with the money regardless of what they tell the public. To me, that’s why things ownership says about what they are spending is mostly noise and might as well be Charlie Brown’s mom speaking. You’re going to get budgetary nonsense from any ownership group. If the Reds were consistently grossly underspending on all aspects of the team, it’d be an issue. They haven’t done that recently. Whatever the owners say is noise and I expect it to fall in the mostly BS category. Sure it’s a lie. And I don’t like lies. But you’d be getting similar lies from just about any management group, so that makes it immaterial to me. It’s a built in part of the game. What matters is the competency in executing a plan and the honesty expressed in that. To me, as far as that aspect goes, the Reds have generally been honest since 2010, however, the competence and patience has been subpar. Lastly, doing realignment or rebuild or whatever you want to call it and the owners making some money in the process aren’t mutually exclusive things. Both could be occurring at the same time
To my next point, spending this year. We don’t know what number Krall was given as a budget. Like I said. That stuff is speculation and noise. But we do know that for the next week after Krall said he was under budget, the Reds added near a player a day. And some
Of these guys are solid competent MLB players. We also know that this occurred right after Suarez was traded. It’s not a leap in logic to say, they spent Suarez’s money on other pieces. Sure that requires some assumption, and it’s fair to disagree. It’s another thing to act like I’m pulling that out of the sky and am trolling.
I apologize if the butthurt comment rubbed people thr wrong way, but I really don’t know what else to call blatant hyperbole and excessive negativity. I could post multiple more examples but the one I posted above seems the most germane to the discussion. It’s sucks that Winker is gone. Everyone else that has been shipped out is arguably declining or just kinda meh as a player. But Winker et al being shipped out doesn’t mean the Reds are all of a sudden going to start running out MLB payrolls of between $44-$75 million dollars
Like I’ve reiterated in other threads. The plan seems to be to let the kids develop this year and likely heavily invest a la the 2019-2020 off-season once there’s a better picture of who is sinking and who is swimming. That’s why we are seeing the 1 year deals. And sure, some of these guys are dumpster dives. Others aren’t. Pham, Solano, Stirkland, and to a lesser extent, Minor have all been competent MLB talent as recently as last season. They aren’t future building blocks, but they were never meant to be. It’s likely to upgrade the team this year, bring in some veteran presence for the kids, and maybe sneak into the expanded playoffs if things break right.
1. "Excessive" is in the eye of the beholder. So is hyperbole.
2. No, not every player is arguably declining or kinda meh as a player. Too, that hides the idea that even good players might not be as good, but are still far, far better than their replacements.
3. I notice your level of dollars spent and expectations from the Reds' ownership keeps going down. That's telling.
This team is a mortal lock to lose 90 games and isn't sneaking anywhere except off to Florida for a morning tee time in October.
And, again, if the goal is to build from within and develop the kids -- why are we letting Wade Miley walk out the door for nothing when keeping him to flip for a prospect was $2M? And why are we packaging in a bad salary with one of our most tradable assets and reducing our return haul?
This is the same turd salad that cheap ownership groups around the league serve to their fanbase: "Hey, if the kids all hit their upside projections, stay healthy, and we get a few good bounces, we can compete this year!"
Cincinnati Reds: Farm System Champions 2022
Chip R (04-06-2022),JFLegal (04-01-2022),LeatherPants (04-01-2022),REDREAD (04-02-2022),Wonderful Monds (04-01-2022)
When did you call me a troll? What did I do that was trollish?
What would you say.....ya do here?
Mortal lock? Nah.. a lock if they flip guys at the trade deadline.
But in this division you can see a lot of bad parity and a lot of that is why 90 games might not happen.
Looks a lot like the NFC central from the black and blue days when a 9-7 record got you in the playoffs
Old school 1983 (04-06-2022)
1. Of course excessive and hyperbole are subjective. But let’s use some specificity I’ll stick to the example I brought up as it is the most pertinent to the discussion here. Do you or anyone else think the Reds will have a $44M to $75M MLB payroll in the coming seasons? Anyone answering honestly will say no. Leather Pants’s own research shows this. The Reds are spending less of their overall revenue on the MLB payroll than in recent years and they are still $20-$25M above the high end of that comment. Recent history, namely the 2019-2020 off-season shows that the Reds can and will spend money.
2. Let’s just make a list.
Winker-at prime that’s why I excluded him from the declining/meh list
Gray-still good but injury concerns and declining.
Barnhart- 0.2 bWAR last year. Top prospect replacement In house. Likable player. But Meh
Miley-Extremely unlikely to repeat his performance from last year. Declining.
Suarez-Declined to the point of being a detriment. Might bounce back a little but might not. Declining/Meh
As far as the replacements, it’s not just about this year. Guys like Lodolo and Greene need to break into the rotation. It’s time. Both have star potential. So who do you let go of to do that? The declining/injury prone guys with larger salaries, Miley and Gray, or the younger guys with more control and more talent, Castillo and Mahle.
With the position players, Cast was never coming back anyway. Who was the great loss other than Winker? The quick answer is no one. And Winker is tremendous with the bat, but his severe lacking in every other aspect of the game drags down his overall contribution. Great but flawed player with injury concerns. Suarez was arguably the worst everyday position player in the league last year. Getting rid of his contract for the next 3 seasons was a godsend.
I’m sure you’ll harp on this, but Pham and Solano are basically a wash with Suarez salary wise. Each outperformed Suarez last year. Both got on base at a decently high clip last year. Are they world beaters? No. But they are competent MLB players. As is Strickland and to a lesser extent minor. I get these guys are likely to not be as good as Cast and Winker last year. But they’ll likely easily exceed Suarez and a chunk of Winker’s production. As I’ve said the whole off-season. This next season is likely an exercise in getting the kids in the MLB experience, and getting the prospects a year closer. The key to catching lightning in a bottle will be the young pitching exceeding normal rookie expectations to make up for the Miley and Gray loss, and for Senzel to stay healthy and produce at a level we think he’s capable of in order to make up a chunk of the lost Cast/Winker production.
Realigning and the owner making money are not mutually exclusive. Each can be true at the same time. In the long run, the team got younger, more athletic, and has much more to spend in future years than if they stayed the course they were on.
3. My expectation has been the same. The Reds FO, much like most other FO in sports will do the typical corporate talk BS when assessing the public about what they will spend on the team. It’s noise. What matters is the competency they display while spending that money. The Reds are generally honest about their overarching plans. The patience and competency to see them through is the main issue.
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