Phil Castellini surprised that Opening Day tickets still unsold

[Bourgeois Zee]

When did you call me a troll? What did I do that was trollish?

Not you. 1983.

Unclear on the quote. My bad.

[Old school 1983]

This team is a mortal lock to lose 90 games and isn't sneaking anywhere except off to Florida for a morning tee time in October.

And, again, if the goal is to build from within and develop the kids -- why are we letting Wade Miley walk out the door for nothing when keeping him to flip for a prospect was $2M? And why are we packaging in a bad salary with one of our most tradable assets and reducing our return haul?

This is the same turd salad that cheap ownership groups around the league serve to their fanbase: "Hey, if the kids all hit their upside projections, stay healthy, and we get a few good bounces, we can compete this year!"

It’s likely that it’s a turd salad. We’re aware of that. They are too. That’s why we aren’t seeing vets on long term deals. It’s a developmental year for the younger guys in most regards. We’ll see the payroll tick back up once the sinking and swimming is done with the prospects IMO. We’ve seen a big go for it just 2 seasons ago.

[Bourgeois Zee]

We’ve seen a big go for it just 2 seasons ago.

In fact, as evidenced by LP's mutliple posts, we did not.

But continue to trot that narrative out there, man. We'll continue to knock it down.

[Rojo Rijo]

I think what really upsets me as a fan is the organizations continued refusal to tear it down and rebuild in favor of trying to fix foundational mistakes with duct tape.

[UKWhoDey]

I just work too hard to pony up the kind of money youve got to for Opening Day for a team the FO has cobbled together in a half hearted attempt. If youre not going to put the money down to genuinely compete, why should I spend $4+/gal to fill my car up to drive up there from Lexington, deal with parking and those price ripoffs, $10-14 beers, and absurd costs of the tickets for OD.

Im cheap. Im the guy who waits until the Pirates and Marlins et al roll in to town and goes. No traffic, no lines, no hassle getting in and out.

Ill deal with all of that and pony up when weve got a conpetitive team and making a push. Im sure if yoh live in Cincinnati its easier to justify going more frequently.

Yeah, its only an hour or so from here to GABP but still, my time is money too and if theyre going to half ass this then how much do you think Im willing to spend, how far out of my way am I willing to go....when weve had 5 winning seasons and 0 playoff series wins in 16 yrs with this ownership group? Have some faith Phil? How about have some effing self awareness.

[REDREAD]

Suarez had minus .7. The whole deal saw 2 WAR leave the Reds. Dunn and Fraley were each over 1 apiece.

- - - Updated - - -



Did they not spend that in 2019, 2020 and 2021?

Suarez got his WAR lowered because he was willing to play SS, even though that was a horrible idea.
Normally, WAR is a good rough estimate, but not in this case.

[Old school 1983]

Suarez got his WAR lowered because he was willing to play SS, even though that was a horrible idea.
Normally, WAR is a good rough estimate, but not in this case.

Not going to disagree with that. However, outside of the month that is held as the worst predictor of success, September, he couldn’t hit water if he fell out out the titanic.

[Old school 1983]

In fact, as evidenced by LP's mutliple posts, we did not.

But continue to trot that narrative out there, man. We'll continue to knock it down.

The largest FA spending in team history and trading for the 2020 Cy Young winner in 2019 and 2020 doesn’t count because they didn’t go above a certain percentage of their revenue?

Do you understand that after 2019 the Reds trimmed a significant amount off the payroll and spent that money on FA talent and more expensive talent acquired in trades? The current situation mirrors that via Leather Pants analysis—the one that you have been citing ad nauseam. The Reds are significantly under their usual payroll. For this year and the future. I’ll ask again, do you really think the Reds will roll into 2023 or 2024 with a $44M-$75M payroll when, in recent history they have spent that in triplicate at the low end and duplicate at the high end?

So knock down the assertion that the Reds new normal isnt a $44-$75M payroll for the foreseeable future. Knock down the narrative the Reds didn’t create savings and payflex to add vet FA to the kids after the sorting plays out. They literally did this as recently as 2019-2020. Hell honestly they’d did this much more nominally last week.

I never once argued that the Reds were going to go over their normal range of what they spend in terms of percentage of revenue. I argued that the Reds freed up and saved money that would go to the payroll in a large quantity in future years, and did so to a lesser extent this year. Leather Pants’s own research shows the Reds will have considerable money to spend in future years. So is his research good or not? Or do you want to dig your own grave to win an internet argument that you are a believer the new payroll norm is in the $44M-$75M range? Maybe use some common sense and say the Reds will spend the payflex to improve the club in the coming years as the kids solidify their roles….just like they did in 2019 and 2020. They got money off the books and then spent it on the team.

[Bourgeois Zee]

The largest FA spending in team history and trading for the 2020 Cy Young winner in 2019 and 2020 doesn’t count because they didn’t go above a certain percentage of their revenue?

Read LP's posts on this topic.

Plural.

He lays it out nicely.

The percentages matter a great deal.

[Falls City Beer]

It’s likely that it’s a turd salad.

Except you’ve been arguing the very opposite for a couple of weeks. So which is it? Are they Tampa or Cincinnati?

[westofyou]

In a week the season will have started.

No matter how much the Reds have ripped you off and sold your dreams down the river to Huckleberry Finn like villain's who will eat your liver while you are still alive and force you to sell plasma to get audio access to MLB LIVE so they can listen to Cubs and Cardinal games you will all still show up here at Redszone like junkies in a park in the dead of night.

And they say Baseball is dying.

[Old school 1983]

Except you’ve been arguing the very opposite for a couple of weeks. So which is it? Are they Tampa or Cincinnati?

That’s not what I argued. I said there’s a plausible situation where the team is good if things break the right way. IMO that takes the young pitchers shining, Senzel being healthy and the other guys to be around what they were last year. I argued that while that’s a plausible outcome, the probable outcome is a losing season. Young pitchers generally take lumps and Senzel hasn’t shown an ability to be healthy.

The answer is we don’t know. They’ve been impatient and mostly incompetent with plans starting with the failure to replace Ludwick in 2013. It seems that they are now willing to move assets that in years past they would have hung onto as fan favorites for dear life. It gives me a little bit of a thought that they are serious about attempting a Rays/As model.

[Old school 1983]

Read LP's posts on this topic.

Plural.

He lays it out nicely.

The percentages matter a great deal.

His analysis of the percentages was good. But that’s not the money I was talking about….the money above the usual percentage range they normally spend. I was saying they’ve cleared money off the books that would go towards whatever percentage goes normally into the payroll in the coming years and to a lesser extent this year…they’ll spend that. They aren’t going to have some sort of ridiculous low payroll in the $44-$75M range unless they literally strike gold with every prospect on the team or in the system and can field a team of pre arbitration studs.

[JFLegal]

Phil, if it's not the first game of the season ... it's not "opening day."

no one cares about the "home opener" nearly as much as the real opening day.

now, in cincinnati, it should be one in the same. course, last time we opened on the road i think we won the world series. so i ain't mad.

[REDREAD]

In regard to another post you made…fruits of the rebuild. I get how the trades didn’t work but you gotta be kidding if you don’t think the prospects didnt. They account for a good hunk of the starters and guys that will be up and coming.

As far as this years team, somethings will have to break right. IMO namely Senzel and the young pitching. If that goes well, it’s plausible they’ll be in the same neighborhood as last years club.

We did get some nice young players out the tanking, but not enough to justify 4-5 years of tanking.
Then they tried (kind of half assed) for two years, but were too cheap to get a bullpen, and made dumb moves like signing shogo.
Now because they made dumb moves, they have to do another teardown.
That's what I mean about the last rebuild failing. I dont' see this next rebuild working either, esp if Krall is running it.
But yes, I acknowledge the Reds have some good young talent, just not nearly enough.